X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - J.T. Realmuto and Wilson Ramos

This week I am turning my attention to the position that gives most fantasy owners the biggest concerns, the catcher position. Every year there is at least one catcher who rises to the top of the position and ends up being drafted clearly ahead of the others. This season that catcher is J.T. Realmuto, who is in demand not only in fantasy but from a lot of Major League teams as well. Realmuto's consistent performances have meant that he currently being drafted just outside the top-50.

Within the NL East, there is another catcher who is also experiencing a current run of good performances. Wilson Ramos broke out in 2016 with the Washington Nationals, and after losing a chunk of 2017 to injury had a bounce back 2018. Ramos is currently being drafted outside the top-100, at pick 135.82, but should the veteran catcher be getting similar buzz to the younger Realmuto?

Let's take a closer look at these two catchers.

Featured Promo: Get your MLB Premium Pass for 50% off the regular price when get any full-season pass. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA) ADP: 56.95

Despite being just 27, Realmuto is somewhat of a veteran himself. Realmuto was drafted by the Marlins in the third round back in 2010 when he was just 19 years old. In 2014 he broke into the Marlins teams and has never looked back, playing at least 125 games in every season since. Over those four seasons, we have seen him grow as a power hitter and last year he hit a career-high 21 home runs, to go with 148 combined runs and RBI (74 each). He backed that up with a second-straight year hitting in the high .270s (.277), and even added three steals for good measure.

In the last two seasons, we have seen Realmuto jump from 11 home runs in 2016 to 17 in 2017 and then up to 21 last year. Essentially doubling your home runs over two seasons is extremely impressive and his ISO has also jumped from .126 to .208 across those three seasons. The fascinating thing about his performance last year is that his FB% actually fell nearly 6% (45.5% to 39.8%) compared to his career average. In a time where many hitters are actually looking to elevate the ball more, Realmuto appears to have tried to do the opposite.

However, to replace this drop in FB% his HR/FB% went from 11.6% to 14.9%. That increase may largely be in part to an increase of 5% in his hard-hit rate. 2017 was already a career high for Realmuto at 33.3% but last year he took that through the roof to 38.5%. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that this season, especially if he remains in a tough park to hit home runs in Miami. My expectation is we see a slight regression in hard-hit rate and HR/FB rate, some of which may be countered by a positive regression in FB%. The question is if only one or two regress, which ones because those three stats could be the difference between 15 and 25 home runs this season?

The home-road splits for Realmuto are pretty stark. In just 31 extra plate appearances, Realmuto hit five more home runs, had 14 more runs and 16 more RBI away from home. His batting average on the road was also .014 higher than at home. The average is nothing special, but as an overall picture, his hitting away from Marlins Park last year is a good indicator of what we might see if he were to be traded to a more hitter-friendly location. For example, if he goes somewhere like Cincinnati, where home runs are generally easier to come by, then his home run totals could go through the roof.

I just want to finish by looking at Realmuto's performances against specific pitch types, because the difference is pretty big. Sometimes a big increase can be attributed to a different pitch mix faced by the hitter, but in this case, Realmuto has turned one of his negatives from 2017 into a positive. In his career, Realmuto's success against the fastball has fluctuated. His first two years he put up negative runs compared to the average when facing that pitch. In 2017 he was also just below zero (-0.8). However, in 2016 and 2018, Realmuto had was 6.7 and 5.3 runs better than the average when facing the fastball. The biggest reason for that is his success against the sinker, which he was worth 7.6 runs above the average when facing. However, something to watch this year is his success against the four-seam fastball. Realmuto's success against that pitch has dropped each of the last two years, from 2.6 in 2016 right now to -3.7 last year. It will be interesting to see if teams start using the four-seam more often against Realmuto in the 2019 season.

I should make it clear, I am a massive fan of Realmuto and I think he has the underlying numbers to get even better. In addition, in terms of safety, there is no catcher more valuable than Realmuto. Not many catchers hit third in their team's lineup, have the ability to go over 20 home runs and can hit for a .270 batting average. However, there are enough doubts in the underlying numbers for me to be concerned about him taking that next step.

That means I am not willing to take Realmuto 80 picks higher than most catchers. I would much rather be using my pick in the 50s to draft one of the pitchers currently going in that range, Stephen Strasburg, James Paxton or Patrick Corbin. Then I can use a pick in the 110/120 range to draft one of a handful of catchers which I believe has the ability to put up solid numbers and still have some upside, even if it is not as great as the upside Realmuto has. If he does go to a more hitter-friendly park then obviously the chance of achieving that upside would increase but so in all likelihood so will the price you have to pay to own him.

Verdict: ADP Chump

 

Wilson Ramos (C, NYM) ADP: 135.82

Compared to Realmuto, Ramos is an old-timer in the majors. Ramos was also drafted by the Minnesota Twins at 19 years of age and took four years to break into the majors. He then had a reasonably successful spell with the Washington Nationals, culminating in a breakout 2016, when he set a career high for runs, home runs, RBI and average. Unfortunately, his 2016 season ended prematurely when Ramos suffered an ACL tear at the end of September. Now on his third team in those three years since leaving Washington, which version of Ramos will we see?

If you were to look at the last four years of Ramos career it may seem as though his batting average is hard to predict. However, since the breakout year in 2016, Ramos has actually been a very consistent hitter. The 2017 average of .260 is somewhat false due to his slow start. Ramos missed the first three months of the 2017 season due to the torn ACL he suffered late in 2016. Therefore, he missed the chance to get into gear during spring training, and instead had to "get his eye in" while playing for the Rays instead. Ramos struggled in his first 35 games, hitting just .194. However, in his final 29 games of the season, he hit an impressive .330.

What changed in 2016 compared to earlier in his career? Essentially, Ramos just started hitting the ball harder. In 2014 and 2015, his hard-hit rate averaged out at 27%. In 2016 that jumped to 35.4%, was 33.1% in his injury-hit 2017 and went one better in 2018, ending up at 39.1%. The fact that we have seen that number stay relatively stable over three years suggests to me he can do it again in 2019. Additionally, his HR/FB% has been consistently between 20 and 22% over the last three years and his FB% has been around 25% in three of his last four years. His FB% in the 2017 season is somewhat distorted due to an extremely FB heavy profile to start the season, and can, therefore, be somewhat ignored. What this means is that a home run number somewhere in the 15-20 region seems more than fair to predict for Ramos this year.

Ramos does not offer the same safety as Realmuto, or the same upside. Ramos is likely to hit in the middle of the Mets lineup, but the Mets have a more reliable secondary catching option than the Marlins have. Therefore, given the knee injury from 2016, and the niggling back injuries we saw last year, there is a good chance we do not see Ramos getting close to the same number of PAs as Realmuto. The expected lesser playing time likely means he does not reach the same level of runs and RBI, and it would be fairly shocking if he even stole a single base.

All of that said, it is not inconceivable to see Ramos hit a similar number of home runs and have a slightly better batting average than Realmuto this season. There is no doubt that Realmuto has the higher upside and the safer floor, but at an average of 80 picks later, Ramos is the catcher I will end up targeting in drafts far more often than Realmuto.

Verdict: ADP Champ

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Warren Foegele4 hours ago

Scores Two Goals Against Boston
Mason Lohrei4 hours ago

Tallies Three Assists In Wednesday's Win
Pavel Mintyukov4 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Wednesday
Johnny Gaudreau4 hours ago

Maintains Momentum With Three-Point Effort
Matt Grzelcyk4 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day Following Wednesday's Exit
Viktor Arvidsson4 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Jaden Springer5 hours ago

Questionable To Face Bulls
Al Horford5 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Robert Covington5 hours ago

Three Weeks Away From Returning
Gary Payton5 hours ago

II Battling An Illness, Questionable Thursday
Christian Wood5 hours ago

Sidelined For Two Weeks
Cam Reddish5 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday's Action
Dante Exum5 hours ago

Remains Unavailable Thursday
Maxi Kleber6 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
William Nylander9 hours ago

Reaches 30-Goal Mark In Victory
Auston Matthews9 hours ago

Reaches 50-Goal Mark In Victory
Gavin Lux11 hours ago

Expects To Play In Spring Opener Thursday
Miami Dolphins11 hours ago

Terron Armstead Plans To Return In 2024
Justin Fields11 hours ago

Says He Wants To Stay In Chicago
Tyler Glasnow11 hours ago

To Pitch In Opening Series
Kyle Kuzma11 hours ago

Removed From Injury Report
Tyrese Haliburton12 hours ago

Fully Cleared For Thursday
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

No Longer On The Injury Report
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Versus Warriors
Quentin Grimes12 hours ago

Doubtful To Make Pistons Debut
Domantas Sabonis13 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Spurs Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Out Versus The Warriors
LaMelo Ball13 hours ago

Still Out On Thursday
Dereck Lively14 hours ago

II Probable Against Phoenix
Luka Doncic14 hours ago

Expected To Face The Suns
Bradley Beal14 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday Evening
José Caballero16 hours ago

Jose Caballero Expected To Be Primary Shortstop
Amed Rosario16 hours ago

To Serve In Utility Role
Jalen Suggs17 hours ago

Off Injury Report
Scott Perunovich17 hours ago

Could Be Back In Action Thursday
Markelle Fultz17 hours ago

Out Thursday
Gleyber Torres17 hours ago

Expected To Hit Between Fourth And Sixth
Arvid Söderblom17 hours ago

Arvid Soderblom Faces Flyers On Wednesday
Will Smith17 hours ago

Dodgers Haven't Had Extension Talks With Will Smith
Urho Vaakanainen17 hours ago

Rejoins Ducks Lineup On Wednesday
Dustin May17 hours ago

Hopes To Return Sometime In August
Owen Power17 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins17 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday's Action
Hampus Lindholm18 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Brandon Marsh18 hours ago

Progresses To Jogging
Willson Contreras18 hours ago

Takes Live Batting Practice Wednesday
Tommy Edman19 hours ago

Weeks Away From Full Baseball Activities
Manny Machado19 hours ago

Could DH "Sooner Than Later"
PGA20 hours ago

Seonghyeon Kim Looks To Continue A Steady Run Of Play
Jhonattan Vegas20 hours ago

Showing Signs Of A Return To Form
Sixto Sánchez20 hours ago

Sixto Sanchez Faces Live Hitters Wednesday
Justin Suh20 hours ago

Taking A Volatile Run Of Form South Of The Border
Jake Knapp20 hours ago

Proving To Be A Compelling Korn Ferry Prospect
Brandon Wu20 hours ago

Looking To Carry Over His Immaculate Mexico Open History
Jonnu Smith20 hours ago

Falcons To Move On From Jonnu Smith?
Kodai Senga21 hours ago

Experiencing "A Bit" Of Arm Fatigue
Alex Smalley21 hours ago

Brings Tee-To-Green Struggles To Mexico
John Tavares21 hours ago

Moved To Third-Line Center
PIT21 hours ago

Penguins Willing To Move Any Non-Core Player
Karel Vejmelka21 hours ago

To Start Wednesday Versus Maple Leafs
José Ramírez21 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Could Hit Second This Year
Jonny Brodzinski21 hours ago

Inks Two-Year Extension With Rangers
Nic Dowd21 hours ago

Listed As Day-To-Day For Capitals
Noelvi Marte22 hours ago

To Miss First Five Cactus League Games
Artemi Panarin22 hours ago

Jimmy Vesey Day-To-Day For Rangers
Nate Lashley22 hours ago

Struggling Outside Of Putting Aberration
Hunter Greene22 hours ago

Working On A Curveball
Gleyber Torres22 hours ago

Wants "To Be A Yankee For Life"
Brayan Bello22 hours ago

Red Sox's Extension Talks With Brayan Bello May Be Heating Up
Maverick McNealy22 hours ago

Trending Upwards Ahead Of Mexico Open
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.23 hours ago

Feeling Great
Tim Anderson23 hours ago

Marlins Offer Tim Anderson A Starting Job
Michael Kim23 hours ago

In Good Form Heading To Mexico
Davis Thompson23 hours ago

Set For Mexico Open Debut
Cameron Champ23 hours ago

Looks To Continue Success In Mexico
Aaron Rai23 hours ago

Heads To Mexico In Poor Form
Kyle Connor1 day ago

Registers Third Consecutive Multi-Point Effort
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Looking For Driver To Deliver
Liam Hendriks1 day ago

Expects To Pitch By Trade Deadline
PGA2 days ago

Chris Gotterup Is Struggling So Far In His Rookie Season
Chesson Hadley2 days ago

Makes Debut At Mexico Open
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back
Charley Hoffman2 days ago

Heads To Mexico Open
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Heads To Mexico In Good Form
Ryo Hisatsune2 days ago

Making Mexico Open Debut
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Looking To Keep A Good Thing Going At Mexico Open
Nicolai Hojgaard2 days ago

Offers Course-Fit Choice
Erik Jones2 days ago

Shows Speed At Daytona Despite Disappointing Run
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Hail Mary Attempt Falls Short
John Hunter Nemechek2 days ago

Scores Career-Best Daytona Finish To Start 2024
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Promising Daytona Run Ruined By Lap 191 Wreck
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Undergoes Offseason Surgery
Zay Flowers2 days ago

Baltimore County Police Suspends Investigation Of Zay Flowers
Michael McDowell2 days ago

Daytona 500 Race Marred By Mechanical Issue
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Has One Of Those Days At Daytona
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Ends Up 14th At Daytona
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Exceeds DFS Value In The Daytona 500
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Late Wreck Derails Ryan Blaney's Strong Start In Title Defense
Marquise Brown2 days ago

Set To Leave In Free Agency
Justin Fields2 days ago

Mike Tomlin A Big Fan Of Justin Fields
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Starts Off 2024 With Third-Place Finish At Daytona
Russell Wilson2 days ago

Not Expected Back In Denver
Matthew Slater2 days ago

Hangs Up His Cleats
William Byron2 days ago

Wins Daytona 500 As Wrecks Break Out Late
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Starts Comeback Season With Top-10 At Daytona
AJ Allmendinger3 days ago

Earns Fourth Straight Daytona 500 Top-10 Finish
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Narrowly Misses Out On Daytona 500 Victory
Joey Logano3 days ago

Wrecks Out Of Daytona 500 But Leads Most Laps
Tank Dell3 days ago

Expects To Be Back For OTAs
Joe Mixon3 days ago

Could Be A Salary Cap Casualty
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

Jaguars Plan To Bring Back Calvin Ridley
Tyler Boyd3 days ago

Bengals Expected To Let Tyler Boyd Walk
Deshaun Watson3 days ago

On Track In Rehab From Shoulder Surgery
Ilia Topuria3 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Alexander Volkanovski3 days ago

Loses Title At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo3 days ago

Merab Dvalishvili Defeats Henry Cejudo By Unanimous Decision At UFC 298
Henry Cejudo3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Roman Kopylov3 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 298
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Aggressiveness Could Pay Dividends at Daytona
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Searching for First-Ever Top 5 in Daytona 500
Chris Buescher4 days ago

No Worries About Chris Buescher Missing Daytona 500 Practice
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace: 'The Best I've Felt Mentally'
Michael McDowell4 days ago

Avoid Michael McDowell in DFS for Daytona
Jimmie Johnson4 days ago

Sneaks Into Daytona 500 Field Despite Wreck
Anthony Hernandez4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 298
Geoff Neal4 days ago

Drops Split Decision At UFC 298
MMA4 days ago

Ian Machado Garry Remains Undefeated
Paulo Costa4 days ago

Loses Entertaining Fight At UFC 298
Robert Whittaker4 days ago

Edges Out Competitive Decision At UFC 298
Pittsburgh Steelers5 days ago

Steelers Appear To Have Internal Division Over QB Position
Kansas City Chiefs6 days ago

Chiefs Pick Up Chris Jones' Option
Saquon Barkley6 days ago

Giants Considering Letting Saquon Barkley Test Free Agency?
Las Vegas Raiders6 days ago

Raiders In The Market For A QB In 2024
Jimmy Garoppolo6 days ago

Suspended Two Games For PEDs
Alexander Volkanovski6 days ago

Set For Sixth Title Defense At UFC 298
Ilia Topuria6 days ago

Has A Chance To Become The New UFC Featherweight Champion
Henry Cejudo6 days ago

Looking To Return To Win Column
Merab Dvalishvili6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC 298
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Running Backs Rankings (Tiers 1-3) - 2024 Best Ball Leagues

We are now progressing through the early weeks of the offseason and the process of free agency will soon provide pathways for some running backs to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, and D'Andre Swift are among the collection of backs who could... Read More


Travis Kelce - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

The Biggest Fantasy Football TE Busts Of 2023

We are at that part of the NFL offseason where very little news breaks. The NFL Combine doesn't start for a week, and free agents can't sign until March. So, now is the perfect time to look back and see where we might have gone wrong in fantasy football drafts this past year, especially at... Read More


Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Free Agency Preview: Biggest Positional Needs For The Atlanta Falcons

It was an incredibly frustrating season for the Falcons. Head coach Arthur Smith couldn't figure out if he wanted to go with Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. He seemed to have no interest in force-feeding the ball to Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, despite their obvious talents. Instead, this offense seemed... Read More


Derek Carr - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Free Agency Preview: Biggest Positional Needs For The New Orleans Saints

The Saints are caught in purgatory. They're not bad enough where their chances of drafting an upper-tier level starter at the quarterback position are good and they're not good enough where they're legit contenders. Their cap situation is dictating their moves, almost going as far as taking the choice out of their hands. No other... Read More


2024 NFL Draft Top 10 QB Rankings: Pre-Combine Rookie Quarterback Analysis

The Super Bowl might be over, but football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The countdown is on for 2024 fantasy football drafts and NFL teams are preparing for the Combine and upcoming Draft. Matt Donnelly discusses his favorite quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft class and ranks his top-10 QBs. The season may be over but... Read More


Sam LaPorta - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Breakout Fantasy Football Tight Ends From The 2023 Season

The tight end group is always one of the hardest positions to navigate in fantasy every year. That continued during the 2023-2024 season because taking a tight end early might not have been the right strategy. Travis Kelce, who was a top-seven overall pick in fantasy drafts, was arguably one of the biggest busts at... Read More


Joe Flacco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Is Joe Flacco A Free Agent? Which Teams Would Be The Best Fit? Fantasy Football Outlook

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has played for multiple teams during his 16-year NFL career. He started with the Baltimore Ravens, playing 11 years with the franchise. The former first-round pick had over 38,000 passing yards and 136 touchdowns with the Ravens. Flacco has played for three different teams over the past five years. He spent... Read More


Tee Higgins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Top Landing Spots For Tee Higgins In Free Agency: 2024 Offseason Outlook

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins is one of the better young wide receivers in the NFL. The star receiver totaled at least 900 receiving yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three career years. Unfortunately, he had a disappointing 2023 season. Higgins set career lows in receptions (42), targets (76), receiving yards... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Top Landing Spots For Saquon Barkley In Free Agency: 2024 Offseason Outlook

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is one of the most talented players in the NFL. The superstar running back has had at least 960 rushing yards in four of six career seasons, including back-to-back years. The former Penn State star has struggled with injuries in his career. He missed at least three games... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Early Look At The 2024 RB Rookie Class For Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

The 2024 rookie running back class isn't as good as last year's class. After two running backs were picked in the top 12 in 2023, some analysts are projecting there won't be a single running back picked in the first round. There's no clear-cut number one like Bijan Robinson was last year. Rankings are fluid.... Read More


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Biggest Positional Needs for All 32 NFL Teams - NFC East Edition

Following the 2023 NFL Season, it's quite easy to make the argument that every fanbase for each of the four teams in the NFC East is disappointed with how the season went. The Eagles imploded in the last two months of the season. Hard. The Cowboys got blown out at home in the first round... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (February Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

That first dreaded Sunday of the year without football arrived and there's no doubt many of you all across the country needed something to fill the void over the weekend. Have no fear, NFL Mock Draft Season is here! While we are still about seven months away from official 2024 NFL action, the good news... Read More


Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Sleepers Heading Into 2024: Undervalued Wide Receivers

With the 2023 NFL season officially in the books, it's time to turn our attention to the future. The weeks before the 2024 NFL Draft are a busy time for fantasy football managers in dynasty leagues as they wheel and deal in an attempt to improve their position during the offseason. Often, certain players will... Read More