RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Genesis Invitational. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! Daniel Berger emerged victorious at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the strength of two final-round eagles. Berger was just the latest in a string of players to win the week following a missed cut and the AT&T turned out to be a good tournament. Can we please play it without the amateurs again next year?
It was a strong week for our "Horses", as all of this article's highlighted players made the cut at Pebble Beach, with Jordan Spieth leading the way with a T3. It's a good reminder that the AT&T is certainly an event where we want to target good course history, as the leaderboard was full of players with great Pebble Beach track records. This week we stay in California, but are faced with a very different event in the Genesis Invitational.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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Genesis Invitational Overview
After a week at historic Pebble Beach for the AT&T, we head to another iconic California golf course, Riviera Country Club, for the Genesis Invitational. This tournament is always one of my favorites on the PGA Tour schedule, as we get a truly classic layout in "The Riv" and what's always a strong field of players.
While last week's field was unquestionably weak, this week's Genesis roster offers us the cream of the crop. Eight of the world's top-10 players will be in attendance at Riviera and defending Genesis champion Adam Scott will try to fend off the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy.
This event consistently produces classy leaderboards and excitement. That should be the case again this year with most of the world's best players in attendance. It's a great week for PGA DFS! Let's dive in!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Riviera Country Club
Par 71 - 7,322 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: George C. Thomas Jr. & William P. Bell
Riviera Country Club is a legendary track and one of the classiest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. It's Hollywood history only adds to the club's intrigue. Opened in 1927, Riviera was an instant classic and has long been a favorite of L.A.'s celebrities. It was famously dubbed 'Hogan's Alley' after Ben Hogan logged three wins on the course in 18 months.
In addition to all the history, Riviera still stands out as a great golf course in the modern era. The 315 yard, Par-4 10th hole is one of the best on the PGA Tour. It is 'risk/reward' at its finest and offers players a chance to drive the small green for an eagle opportunity. However, a miss on 10 can quickly turn disastrous, as shots from around the green are extremely tricky. Riviera places an emphasis on ball striking and shot making. I will focus on ball strikers that have previous experience at Riviera this week.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Champions & Winning Scores
- 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
- 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
- 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
- 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
Notes From Last Year's Genesis Invitational
- Five players had a share of the lead at different points of the final round.
- Adam Scott won what was a battle of attrition on Sunday with a final-round 70 to finish at 11-under par for the week.
- The win was Scott's 14th career victory on the PGA Tour and first win in the U.S. since the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship.
The Horse
Dustin Johnson
DraftKings: $11,300
FanDuel: $12,100
Notable Course History: T10 (2020), T9 ('19), Win ('17), 4th ('16)
Well, we talked about DJ in this article last week, but a WD knocked him out of consideration for us. His decision to skip last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after a win at the Saudi International makes me even more eager to target him this week at the Genesis, a tournament that he won in 2017 and has posted eight additional top-10 finishes over 13 career starts.
I don't think there's a big need to recap Johnson's historic run in 2020, but it's safe to say he closed out the year playing the best golf of his career en route to three victories - including a record-breaking win at the Masters - and a FedEx Cup title. The holiday break doesn't appear to have slowed him down, as he took down the Saudi International two weeks ago despite losing strokes putting.
DJ has - obviously - been statistically dominant as of late, but the extent is pretty eye-opening. He leads this elite field in all of the following Strokes Gained categories over the last 24 rounds: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, & Approach.
The Ponies
Xander Schauffele
DraftKings: $9,900
FanDuel: $11,500
Notable Course History: T23 ('20), T15 ('19), T9 ('18)
Alright...let's try this again. Some of you might remember that we were "all in" on Xander Schauffele in Phoenix. Things...didn't end well, as the X-Man was unable to capitalize at TPC Scottsdale despite holding a 54-hole lead and being in tremendous position to win for the first time since early 2019.
Despite the dissapointment in Phoenix, I'm back on this week, as Schauffele doesn't strike me as the quitting kind. A common theme to success at Riviera is quality ball striking, the ability to handle a difficult course, and mastery in all facets...traits that the Californian has demonstrated throughout his career. His Genesis resume is, unsurprisingly, rock solid...as he's ran off three-straight top-25s at Riviera.
From a DFS perspective, it will be interesting to see if the masses abandon ship after he capsized in Phoenix. It's extremely early in the week as I write this, so in the absence of ownership projections I'm gonna guess that Xander's popularity is noticeably less than it was a couple of weeks ago. I'll happily to buy the dip here with a player that's consistently proven himself to be reliable in the toughest events on the PGA Tour schedule.
Patrick Cantlay
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $11,200
Notable Course History: T17 ('20), T15 ('19), T4 ('18)
Like winter, Patrick Cantlay is coming. The Californian has been bearing down on a victory in each of his last two starts, posting a runner-up finish at the AmEx and a T3 last week at Pebble Beach. These performances are on the heels of a late 2020 win at the ZOZO Championship in what was an otherwise disappointing year. It’s clear that whatever issues were nagging Cantlay after the COVID-19 layoff are moving further into the rearview mirror as he presses the pedal down this year.
The trending form is nice, but we also have to love the fit for Cantlay at Riviera. His Swiss-Army-knife style is tailor-made for the course - he grades out second in this field in SG: Total over the last 12 rounds - and that’s reflected in his Genesis results which includes a top-five outing in 2018 and three-straight finishes inside the top-17. Cantlay has gained 8.5 and 9.7 strokes T2G over his last two starts and won’t be kept out of the winner’s circle for very long if he continues playing at this level.
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Adam Scott
DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $10,600
Notable Course History: Win ('20), T7 ('19), T11 ('17), T2 ('16), T2 ('06), Win *Unofficial ('05)
I’m not a huge fan of listing “defending champs” in this article, but Adam Scott’s track record at Riviera extends far beyond last year’s Genesis victory. The Aussie nabbed an “unofficial” win in a rain-shortened tournament at Riviera in 2005 and has also posted two runner-up finishes over his 12 career starts at the Los Angeles masterpiece.
With a career scoring average of 69.59 on this tough layout, Scott’s world-class tee-to-green ability translates well at Riviera, as does his familiarity with the rare Kikuyugrass fairways and rough that’s present throughout the course.Things haven’t completely come together for him yet in 2021, as he’s made a couple of discombobulated starts, losing strokes on and around the green at the Sentry, on Approach at Sony, and OTT at the Farmers (though he still managed a T10).
We can view Scott’s hit-and-miss outings in one of two ways: his game isn’t firing on all cylinders or he’s got a few starts under his belt to work the kinks out. I’m taking the “glass half full” approach with the veteran this week and expect him to play really well at Riviera.
Carlos Ortiz
DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $9,700
Notable Course History: T26 ('20), T9 ('19), T20 ('15)
The knock on Carlos Ortiz has never been his talent, but rather his inability to harness it consistently. Maybe that’s changing, as Ortiz has rattled off five-straight made cuts with a top-five and a top-10 since winning the Houston Open back in November.
He brings that surprisingly-consistent form to a Riviera layout on which he’s been similarly steady. Ortiz has accumulated a scoring average of 70 (that’s good here) in four career starts at the Genesis, logging a top-10 in 2019 and never finishing worse than T26 in any trip to the L.A. course. Despite his solid form of late, it feels like we are embracing a little volatility here with Ortiz, but at $7.8k he brings legitimate tournament-winning upside to the table.
Luke List
DraftKings: $7,300
FanDuel: $8,500
Notable Course History: T30 ('20), T15 ('19), T26 ('18), MC ('17), T20 ('16)
Riviera is a track that rewards strong tee-to-green ability, hence names like DJ and Adam Scott popping up in this week’s HFTC. Luke List is a player that falls well outside the realm of players such as those, but is nonetheless a tremendous ball striker that I’m always willing to consider on tough golf courses.
The Vandy product’s track record at Riviera won’t knock your socks off, but is surprisingly solid. He’s made the cut in four of his five Genesis starts, including three straight, often flirting with top-25 results. In addition to the course fit, List has been sharp in three 2021 outings, posting a top-25 at the AmEx, an impressive T10 at the Farmers (Torrey Pines is a strong comp course to Riviera btw), and a T30 at the WMPO...gaining strokes T2G in each of those starts. He’s in heady company with the strength of this week’s field, but grades out seventh in this elite company in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds.
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