RADIO
Hello, folks! Welcome back to "Horse For The Course." My RotoBaller colleague and long-time Jason Day truther, Spencer Aguiar, is probably still walking on air, as Day finally completed his long-awaited comeback by winning the AT&T Byron Nelson on the strength of a beautiful final-round 62. It was the Aussie's first PGA Tour win in over five years.
After the low-scoring nature of last week's Nelson, we now have serious business at hand, as the world's best golfers convene at Oak Hill Country Club for the year's second major, the PGA Championship.
"Horse For The Course" is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week, check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 PGA Championship
While the PGA Tour schedule has been terrific this year thanks in large part to "Designated Events" that have helped get the world's best players together more often, there's still nothing quite like the environment of major championship golf. In this week's article, we'll prepare for the year's second major, the PGA Championship at Oak Hill.
Because the PGA Championship is an event that utilizes rotating venues, there won't be any direct course history for Oak Hill available to us for the most part, as it last hosted a major championship in 2013. So, in the absence of Oak Hill results, we'll break down which players in this year's field have fared well at PGA Championships in previous years, while also tossing in a bit of U.S. Open history on courses that are comparable to what we'll see out of Oak Hill this week.
Justin Thomas lifted the Wannamaker Trophy at Southern Hills last year and he's set to defend against an elite field that will include not only Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler but also a LIV contingent that announced their presence with authority in the year's first major at the Masters.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: East Course, Oak Hill Country Club
Par 70 - 7,394 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Donald Ross (1925), Renovations By: Andrew Green (2020)
A classical, Northeastern golf course that's hosted six major championships and a Ryder Cup, the East Course at Oak Hill last held a major in 2013, a PGA Championship won by Jason Dufner.
At the time of Dufner's win, Oak Hill played at a little over 7,100 yards, but extensive renovations by Andrew Green have added over 200 yards to the scorecard, while also removing some 500 trees from the property. Translation...the precision-based style that helped carry Dufner to glory here in 2013 likely won't be as effective on this lengthened brute that's more open than in years past, and thus, likely more susceptible to sheer power off the tee.
By all accounts, the rough at Oak Hill is plentiful and thick for this major offing. Players won't be helped by weather that's expected to be fairly cool and damp for the largest portion of the week. We can expect this to be an overall difficult scoring environment and I'll undoubtedly be giving an edge to players that are long off the tee - although accuracy shouldn't go completely ignored. We can also consider golfers who are strong from lengthy approach distances, as they'll face many extended looks. Finally, Oak Hill's bentgrass, mostly elevated, greens are guarded by rugged bunkers and quirky, shaved run-offs, so we'll need golfers that possess the scrambling ability needed to save par.
Recent PGA Championship Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: Justin Thomas (-5)
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6)
- 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13)
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8)
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -9.6
The Horse
Brooks Koepka
- PGA Championship Scoring Average: 69.53 (10 career starts)
- Notable PGA Championship History: T2 (2021), Win ('19), Win ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $10,100 FanDuel Price: $11,700
Despite winning a LIV event in the lead-up, Brooks Koepka entered the year's first major championship largely forgotten and ignored. However, Koepka's major championship excellence quickly reentered the golf world's collective consciousness, as he more closely resembled the man that won four majors between 2017 and 2019, than the physically broken down and mentally fractured player that we've come to know in recent years.
Koepka appeared on a march to a fifth major title at the Masters before Jon Rahm's steadiness and, it must be said, his own ineffectiveness overcame him late into the weekend. Despite that nervy final-round 75, I don't know how anyone could come away from Koepka's performance at Augusta National unimpressed.
Now, by his own account, fully healthy for the first time in years and with confidence if not fully restored then at least seriously bolstered by a pair of LIV wins ahead of his deep Masters run, Koepka will look to rejoin the major championship fray at Oak Hill, a brutish Northeastern layout that is very reminiscent of New York venues where he won previous majors at Bethpage and Shinnecock.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- PGA Championship Scoring Average: 70.30 (Three career starts)
- Notable PGA Championship History: T8 ('21), T4 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $11,200 FanDuel Price: $12,000
Let's just be honest, it's pretty hard to put together an article this week without including either Jon Rahm and/or Scottie Scheffler in it. These two have been playing on their own superstar tier this year with Rahm at four wins including the Masters and Scheffler at two with THE PLAYERS on his resume.
So while it's probably six of one, half-dozen of the other, I'll lean toward Scheffler here, as his 70.30 career PGA Championship scoring average is just the tiniest bit better than Rahm's 70.50 mark.
As the Texan continues to mature and grow into his place on golf's biggest stages, we're learning that Scheffler is adept at handling any sort of layout thrown his way. In addition to top-eight finishes in two of the last three editions of the PGA, he's also won a Masters, logged a T8 in the Open Championship, and scored a runner-up result in last year's U.S. Open at The Country Club, a layout that holds some similarities to this week's Oak Hill beast.
Scheffler is so dependable largely because his game has no true weaknesses. Although he has two wins and hasn't carded a result worse than T12 in 2023, you could argue that things could have been even better if he'd had a bit more help from a sometimes-uncooperative putter.
Over his last 24 measured rounds, Scheffler grades out either first or second in this week's elite field in SG: T2G, Ball Striking, OTT, and Approach. Just for good measure, he's also 21st on the PGA Tour in Scrambling and seemingly chips in from around the green more than any human on the planet. Lots of players are flashier than Scheffler, but they better pack a lunch if they plan on outlasting him in a major.
Jason Day
- PGA Championship Scoring Average: 69.90 (13 career starts)
- Notable PGA Championship History: T4 ('20), 2nd ('16), Win ('15), T8 ('13 *At Oak Hill)
- DraftKings Price: $8,900 FanDuel Price: $9,900
After years in the darkness, Jason Day finally found his way back to the light last week in Dallas, winning the AT&T Byron Nelson for his first PGA Tour title in over five years. I like to imagine that Aguiar awaits patiently to greet Day on a beach somewhere, not unlike Andy Dufresne welcoming Red to Zihuatanejo at the end of Shawshank Redemption.
Even before last week's comeback capper, all the signs were there that the former World No. 1 was really close to being really good again. The injury-prone Day re-engineered his swing to be less stressful on his body and small positives - like top-25 finishes in four of his last five 2022 starts - gave way to big ones - such as four 2023 top-10s ahead of last week's win.
The Aussie's all-world short game has been augmented by the rejuvenated ball striking that he's consistently displayed over a rather large period of time. Day has gained an average of 4.2 strokes T2G over his last 10 starts.
With things now fully back in working order, Day heads to the type of difficult, major-championship layout on which his game has seemingly always shined brightest. He's one of just three players in this week's field that have possess a sub-70 career scoring average in the PGA Championship with two or more career starts.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Joe by using the discount code NICE when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Dustin Johnson
- PGA Championship Scoring Average: 70.59 (13 career starts)
- Notable PGA Championship History: T2 ('20) 2nd ('19), T7 ('15), T8 ('13 *At Oak Hill)
- DraftKings Price: $8,800 FanDuel Price: $10,000
Don't let Dustin Johnson's lack of a PGA Championship title fool you, he's been a menace on these tough, classical golf courses. Including, well, Oak Hill itself, as DJ is one of the few entrants in this week's field that actually played in the 2013 PGA at Oak Hill (he posted a T8).
The 38-year-old veteran has thrived in the heat of some of golf's toughest tests, playing well on layouts such as Bethpage, Oakmont, Shinnecock, and Winged Foot. In all, DJ has tallied six top-10s in PGA Championships, as well as six top-10s and a victory in U.S. Opens.
In eerily similar fashion to Brooks Koepka ahead of the Masters, Johnson won the Tulsa LIV event last weekend and heads to Oak Hill with quiet, yet likely very real, momentum.
Rickie Fowler
- Event Scoring Average: 70.60 (13 career starts)
- Notable Course History: T8 ('21), T5 ('17), T3 ('14), T19 ('13 *At Oak Hill)
- DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,200
I view Rickie Fowler in a very similar light to Jason Day this week...as both are very experienced and capable major championship performers with games that are on the way back after extended slumps. While Day finally found the winner's circle again last week, Fowler's moment of glory might not be far behind if his output this year is an indicator.
Since reuniting with former swing coach Butch Harmon, Fowler has finally rediscovered what was long the strongest asset of his game...consistency. He's gained strokes on Approach in every single start he's made this year and his results reflect the improvement, as he's logged nine straight made cuts with top-15 finishes in each of his last four starts and has now worked himself back inside the OWGR's top 50.
Fowler also has some Oak Hill experience under his belt, as he recorded a T19 in the 2013 PGA Championship on the East Course. All told, Rickie has made the cut in 11 of his 13 career PGA Championship starts with three top-10s. He enters this year's edition with arguably his best form since 2019 and truckloads of major championship experience in the tank.
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