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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/9/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
It's a perfect night for NBA action with ten games on the docket! Whether you are someone who bets on the NBA daily or you are just looking for some action to fill the void between Thursday night football and the upcoming weekend of college and pro football, I've got some NBA bets for you!
Consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too. But for now, I am just tackling game totals and sides.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 9. Let's take a look at the games that I am targeting with wagers tonight. Let's go big or go home today with FIVE picks, as I am in desperate need of a big night to start pushing this record back up to .500 on the year.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 52-65
- Against the Spread: 25-29
- Game/Team Totals: 8-15
- Moneyline Parlay: 7-13
- Teasers: 12-7
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Sacramento Kings (+5.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (225.5 total)
I will warn anyone tailing me on picks tonight that the Cavs love to punish me for betting for or against the by doing the opposite of what I predict! And the other disclaimer here is that Donovan Mitchell is currently questionable and his status could make or break this game for Cleveland so if you want to hold off on betting on this game until we have more clarity on his situation, I get it.
But anyway, the Cavs have been incredibly impressive when most of their core is healthy and they've been incredible at home this season with a league-best 10-1-1 record ATS and a 12.4-point margin of victory. They lost to the Kings on the road last month during their worst skid of the season, but in their last ten games, they are 7-3 with the third-best net rating (+8.6) in the league. They're playing the best defense in the NBA right now, holding opponents under 100 points on average over that last ten-game span, too.
The Kings are good and I like this team a lot, but they were humbled by the Bucks on Wednesday and I think the Cavs in the next tier up of teams in the league right now. If D-Mitch is healthy, I am not sure Sacto has enough defense to stop Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen. I will take the Cavs here to continue to their strong recent play as this pick is backed by both my model's projection and multiple trends.
The Pick: Cavs -5.5 (-110)
Detroit Pistons (+10) @ Memphis Grizzlies (227.5 total)
I rarely bet double-digit favorites, and I tried to talk myself out of this one several times, but there's too much going for the Grizzlies here to ignore this game.
Memphis is finally healthy and like other good teams in this league (Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland) they have an unstoppable superstar surrounded by an underrated supporting cast. Ja Morant has been otherwordly of late, posting some massive lines on a nightly basis and doing whatever he wants when he wants to do it. The Grizzlies' +6 net rating over their last ten games (7-3) is the fourth-best in the league and they opened some eyes the other night when they were able to beat the Heat without Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane.
Bane is still out, but this Death Star is fully operational otherwise. Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the league and the Brandon Clarke/Santi Aldama duo of big men off the bench is dynamic as both guys could be starters on other teams in this league. Memphis is a great team on both sides of the ball and they've been tremendous at home this season with a 9-3 record ATS and a 10.3-point margin of victory.
Nothing against the Pistons, they've been scrappy of late, but they're badly outmanned today on the road and I am taking Memphis to win big here.
The Pick: Grizzlies -10 (-110)
Phoenix Suns (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (227 total)
No one (other than Boston) is playing better basketball right now than the Pelicans. They're still without Brandon Ingram but have rattled off 8 wins over their last ten games with an impressive +11 net rating in that span. They will have a tough task today as they host a Phoenix team that has Chris Paul back in the lineup, but something has been off with the Suns lately as they got wiped out by Dallas and Boston in their last two games. Devin Booker has been very ho-hum and the injuries to their role players have really exposed some cracks in their armor.
CP3 probably has his minutes increased here, but I still like the Pelicans as home underdogs to win here. Zion has been unstoppable in the paint and the Pelicans' role players have been excellent during their recent run. Youngsters like Dyson Daniels, Jose Alvarado, and Trey Murphy III have all played really well on offense and defense, while C.J. McCollum, Zion, and Jonas Valanciunas form a formidable trio around them.
The Pelicans have simply been the better team and I am jumping at the chance to get them at plus odds here to win.
The Pick: Pelicans ML (+105)
Milwaukee Bucks (-1) @ Dallas Mavericks (223 total)
This should be a great game between two of the league's biggest stars, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic. Both players have already made compelling cases to be the MVP, and Luka has been simply amazing consider the lack of a supporting cast around him.
With this game being basically a pick 'em, that lack of depth is one of the factors I am looking at here. The Bucks have Khris Middleton back in their lineup and have won two of their last three since getting him healthy. Jrue Holiday is playing great right now and Brook Lopez has been a stud on both ends of the floor, too. Bobby Portis is in the running for the sixth man of the year and this Milwaukee team comes at you from all angles.
The Bucks won the first meeting by nine points and it's hard for me to see the Mavs being able to withstand the barrage that Milwaukee comes with on a nightly basis. Their 13-point win last time out against a good Kings team really showed how dominant they can be and I'm all over them here as probably my favorite bet of the night.
The Pick: Bucks ML (-115)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Atlanta Hawks (+7) @ Brooklyn Nets (228 total)
The Hawks are a mess right now as they were already down a few starters and are now going to miss one of their best two-way players, Dejounte Murray, for a couple of weeks. They got absolutely smashed by the Knicks last time out and I blame the absence of Murray for most of the game (he left early in the first quarter and never returned) for a lot of it. Trae Young is a guy who runs hot and cold and we got to see just how important Murray is to that team as Trae struggled with his shot and no one else was able to pick up Murray's slack as the Hawks limped their way to just 89 points.
The Nets are at home here and playing their best basketball of the season. Ben Simmons returns tonight and should beef up an already solid defense even more. Over their last ten games, the Nets are allowing the third-fewest points to opponents (108.6) and have been able to win seven of those ten games as a result. Brooklyn has now hit the under in 16 of 26 games this season. The Nets should win this game and I think the combination of their solid defense combined with Atlanta's offensive struggles points me toward the under.
The Pick: UNDER 228 (-110)
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I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: MEM + BKN +TOR = (+121 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: NOP +6.5, MIN +7.5 = (-120 DraftKings)
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