RADIO
Good morning NBA, fans! With a relatively light schedule of games yesterday (4 games) and no games tomorrow, we have a "feast or famine" situation with 15 games today!
It's rare that we get all 30 teams in action on the same night, but it's a bettors' dream. More games = more options and allow us to be pickier with our bets. It also gives you a lot of choices when you are building those parlays and teasers! I have been on a roll with the underdog teasers this year winning seven of nine so far and I've got one again today that I really like.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 25-24
- Against the Spread: 11-11
- Game/Team Totals: 5-7
- Moneyline Parlay: 5-4
- Teasers: 7-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Oklahoma City (-1) @ Detroit Pistons (224 total)
I am going to make A LOT more picks than usual today since we have 15 games, so I am going to keep my little blurbs shorter than usual. OKC has already moved to the favorite after opening up +2 and that line movement makes sense considering they have been the better team this season by a pretty wide margin in almost any metric. Detroit has a few decent wins under their belt, but they have struggled on offense quite a bit at times. OKC will have two of the best three players on the floor tonight (SGA + Giddey vs. Cunningham) and I think they win this one.
The Pick: OKC ML (-115 DK)
Phoenix (-2) @ Philadelphia 76ers (215 total)
The Sixers are likely to have Embiid back tonight, and boy do they need him in a big way. They have been without Embiid and lost their other star James Harden for the next month, and they were already struggling a bit out the gate to begin with even before the injuries and illnesses piled up.
Phoenix had a bad loss to Portland the other night, but bounced back and beat them the following night showing it was more of a fluke than anything. I view the Suns as a top-3 team in the NBA right now and they have Deandre Ayton back in the lineup to form a killer 1-2-3 combo with CP3 and Devin Booker. The Suns should be much bigger favorites here based on the condition of the Sixers and how well Phoenix has played in the early going. The Suns are 6-3 ATS with an average margin of victory of 11 points. I think they can pull away from Philly tonight.
The Pick: PHX -2 (-110 DK)
Milwaukee Bucks (-3) @ Atlanta Hawks (226 total)
I was trashing the Hawks a bit on Saturday and my Pelicans pick went up in flames when Dejounte Murray hit a game-tying shot with 4 seconds left and then Atlanta went on to win in overtime. Listen, Atlanta is a good team and should be in the mix for a decent playoff seed in the East. Winning that game against a tough Pelicans team definitely showed me something and I am bumping them up my rankings as a result.
But the Bucks have been on another level this year. They're undefeated and 8-1 ATS with an 11.8-point average margin of victory (second only to Cleveland). They cruised past the Thunder without Giannis on Saturday, allowing him to rest up for tonight's matchup and I don't think Atlanta has an answer for the Holiday + Giannis combo. The Bucks are like a well-oiled machine right now, getting solid contributions from their role players as well. I think they go into Atlanta tonight and come out with a win. This spread is about 3-4 points too low for this Milwaukee team and how they're playing to start the season.
The Pick: MIL -3 (-110 DK)
Sacramento Kings (+8) @ Golden State Warriors (235 total)
We saw these two teams face off already once this year, with the Warriors winning by five points in that game 130-125. But since then, the Warriors have dropped six of their last seven games! The Kings, meanwhile, have gone 3-2 and are climbing their way back to respectability behind the strong play of Domantas Sabonis and DeAaron Fox.
The Warriors are still the better team, even with the funk they are in. The starters got the night off over the weekend, so maybe they'll come back re-energized, but I have enough respect for this Kings team that I am going side with them here. Eight points is TOO many and I think the Kings can hang.
The Pick: SAC +8 (-110 DK)
Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5) @ Utah Jazz (229.5 total)
The Lakers actually led the Cavs at the half yesterday, but were totally shut down by the Cleveland defense in the second half and continued their offensive woes as they scored only 36 points TOTAL after halftime.
This line has already moved toward Utah, I grabbed it at -3 this morning and I wish I had these picks out a bit sooner this morning for you, but my model still has Utah favored by almost double-digits here. There's no real reason to back the Lakers here, other than the narrative that they are "supposed to be good" or that they have really well-known players like LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook. This Laker team is not good and the numbers back that up. Utah beat the Clippers last night and I think they do the same thing to this Laker team, too.
The Pick: UTA -4.5 (-110 DK)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) @ LA Clippers (213 total)
The Cavs have moved to -4 all the way from -1.5 this morning, so grab this line while you can! Like the Utah situation, I am still committed to this bet either way as I think the Cavs are the far superior team here. They are 8-1 ATS this year with the best margin of victory and are now officially firing on all cylinders with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell providing the offense, while Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley provide elite interior defense.
The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard again and won't have John Wall tonight. Reggie Jackson is questionable. They are a bit of a disaster here in the early season. The Cavs will take advantage and hammer them by double-digits. Book it!
The Pick: CLE -4 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) @ LA Clippers (213 total)
Going back to this game again! This total has plummeted 7 points in only about 3-4 hours, and it makes sense since I have it projected around 209. That leaves very little wiggle room on the overall total, but what if we expect the Cavs to cover with ease? Shouldn't that mean that the Clippers team total is inflated?
Bingo! The Clippers are implied for 105.5 points tonight. The Cavs have held three teams under 100 this season and have allowed an average of only 104 points to opponents this season. And that includes THREE overtime games in which their opponents would have scored far fewer points if the game ended in regulation.
The Clippers have been terrible on offense. They've scored fewer than 106 points in six of their ten games. I have them projected tonight for...wait for it...97 points! That's well below their implied total. No Leonard, no Wall, and just an inefficient Paul George trying to carry this team on his back mean I think the Clippers struggle to score again tonight against this elite Cavs defense.
The Pick: Clippers Team Total UNDER 105.5 (-120 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Cleveland + Utah + Dallas = (+232 DraftKings)
4-point Teaser: Memphis +8, Toronto +8.5, Sacto +12.5 = (+150 DraftKings)
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