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Friday nights often yield some of the best NBA slates we get during the week, and tonight is no different as we have an excellent 11-game slate on tap. A big matchup in the East between Giannis and the Bucks and Embiid and the Sixers headlines the early games, while some other games between good teams include Boston-New Orleans and Phoenix-Utah.
I have said it before, but I will say it again. Slates with more games allow us to pick and choose our bets a little more carefully, so while it's tempting to build those 10-game parlays or get some action on a whole bunch of different games, I think the best process is still to find your top 3-4 spots and then you can always get exposure to other games through prop bets or DFS (if you indulge in a little of everything like yours truly). I had a strong 4-1 finish on Wednesday to get that season record up over .500 and I plan to keep it up there going forward!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 35-32
- Against the Spread: 18-15
- Game/Team Totals: 6-8
- Moneyline Parlay: 5-7
- Teasers: 10-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Milwaukee Bucks (+2) @ Philadelphia 76ers (218.5 total)
Well, the Bucks aren't playing the Hawks (the one team that seems to have their number) so I am going to pick them. The end.
Just kidding, I know that's not enough analysis for you, and that's definitely not the only reason I would play them. But they did beat a fully healthy Sixers team back on opening night and they could (let's hope) get Jrue Holiday back for this one because they might really need him.
Milwaukee is just so darn good. I thought the Cavs had a chance the other night with Holiday still out, but it was Brook Lopez who hit 7 threes and led the way for the Bucks in a big win over my Cavs. So even when Giannis isn't dominating (which is most of the time), Milwaukee is finding ways to win behind the strong play of their role players. Lopez and Portis have been great all season and now Serge Ibaka is providing some quality minutes, too. If Holiday is a go, I think the Bucks could end up as favorites by game time, but they could probably still pull out a win here without him as Jevon Carter has been playing really well in his absence.
Nothing against the Sixers, and I am well aware that Joel Embiid just had the game of the Century, but I just have more faith in Milwaukee's overall depth and shot-making. This should be a great game to watch and a battle of the behemoths. But at plus money, I will take a chance on Milwaukee here.
The Pick: MIL ML (+110 DK)
Phoenix Suns (-1.5) @ Utah Jazz (227 total)
The Suns had an impressive win on Wednesday against the Warriors, putting up 130 points on the defending champs and cruising by double-digits. They did it without Chris Paul, too, but he continues to be listed as questionable and could return at any time. His replacement, Cam Payne, is playing at a really high level in his absence and Devin Booker has stepped up his game, too. With Cameron Johnson out, we've seen Mikal Bridges really shine as well, and this Phoenix team is trending in the right direction.
Utah has been great this year and has defied everyone's expectations (maybe even their own?) But there are some signs that perhaps they are regressing a bit and were playing over their heads. They've lost three in a row and have their work cut out for them tonight against a Phoenix team that simply has more talent and experience. I think they'll battle, but I also think Phoenix should be favored by 4-5 points in this one, especially if Paul does return to the lineup. We just need the Suns to win by a basket, and I think they do that tonight even if Paul doesn't make his return. I'm rolling with the Suns.
The Pick: PHX -1.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Boston Celtics (-3) @ New Orleans Pelicans (227 total)
Only one team in the NBA has gone over its game totals more often than Boston and New Orleans...and that's the OKC Thunder! OKC was so bad offensively last year, but it's been a totally different story this year as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is pouring in 30+ nightly and has elevated that team out of the bottom tier of teams in the league.
But enough about them, this is supposed to be about Boston and New Orleans! Both teams have hit the over in nine of their games so far this season and have positive point differentials. The Pelicans are still potentially without Zion Williamson who is still questionable, but they have plenty of other offensive weapons that could be hard for Boston to stop, especially in the paint as Jonas Valanciunas could be a big problem for the undersized Celtics.
Boston has a true MVP candidate in Jayson Tatum, who is scoring 30+ per night with ease. His sidekick Jaylen Brown isn't too shabby either, and their entire supporting cast has been getting it done all year as they are now 12-3 on the season thanks in large part to some incredible offensive efficiency.
I think we see this total jump today, so grab it now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it up around 230 by game time. I'm on the over, let's not worry about who wins this clash of the Titans, just hope for plenty of offense. I'd play it up to 229.5.
The Pick: OVER 227 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Dallas + L.A. Lakers + Cleveland + Indiana + Chicago = (+294 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: MIA +5.5, OKC +10.5, NYK +11.5 = (+150 DraftKings)
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