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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Saturday, April 22, 2023. Use Thunder Dan's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
Another Spring Saturday brings yet another split slate of MLB action! I'm here every weekend to give you my favorite pitcher and hitter props and these are going to come from games from all different start times today.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, April 22, 2023. All odds listed are on DraftKings, but always shop the books for the best bargains! Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without any further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-120 DK Sportsbook)
Pablo is having a breakout season with Minnesota and has seven or more strikeouts in all four starts this year. He retooled his arsenal and is now featuring a really good breaking ball as his out pitch to accompany his deadly changeup. The results have been impressive as he's carrying a top-5 strikeout rate, whiffing 33% of hitters he's faced this season.
Among qualified pitchers only 2 have:
- O-Swing% of 40% or better
- SwStr% of 15% or better#Rangers Jacob deGrom#MNTwins Pablo Lopez pic.twitter.com/9sonwcxgHM— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) April 22, 2023
The Nats' strikeout rate is slightly below average at 19%, however, their offensive production against RHP has been abysmal as they rank last in ISO and second to last in wOBA. They also don't walk much and that gives me the confidence I need to bet that he will be efficient enough to get through 6-7 innings and get us another 7k outing.
David Peterson OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-120 DK Sportsbook)
After watching another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, strike out nine Giants last night over seven scoreless innings this one feels like a no-brainer. It's not a total slam dunk, however, because Peterson has had some walk issues at times that can drive up his pitch count. But as far as the matchup goes, it's a perfect one for him as the Giants now have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball against LHP at 30%.
Peterson is striking out hitters at a 24% clip, so we really just need him to bear down and throw strikes today. He has 5 or 6 strikeouts in every start, so he's always right in the mix it will just come down to his efficiency and staying out trouble early.
Alek Manoah OVER 1.5 walks (-160 DK Sportsbook)
I've been forcing myself to look for pitching props other than strikeouts this season as I can tend to get locked into strikeouts as my main focus. I did well yesterday with the Kopech prop over 2.5 walks and that one came with some nice odds at +140. This one is juiced up to -160 but has a high probability of hitting, too, as Manoah has been very wild to start the year. He's walked two or more batters in each of his first four starts and has a really bad 15.5% BB% on the season so far.
The Yankees' projected lineup has four lefties in it today and Manoah's walk rate jumps all the way to 17.9% against LHH. He simply can't find the zone this season and his lack of velocity on his fastball is forcing him to throw more breaking pitches that miss the zone more often. I would expect the Yankees to be patient at the plate today and force Manoah to throw strikes.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DK SportsBook)
Small sample sizes can be deceiving when we are only still three weeks into the season, so no I don't expect Ryan Mountcastle to finish with a .619 ISO against LHP. But we know that Mounty has been a solid hitter against lefties in his career and that he's definitely a guy we like to target when he has the platoon advantage.
Today he faces lefty Joey Wentz, who has only a modest 18% strikeout rate and a major 51% flyball rate to righties. That sounds like a perfect formula for a Mountcastle barrel that could end up as a double or a HR. Mounty has cooled off after a crazy week against Oakland lefties last week, but he could be ready to get it rolling again here today in this spot.
Brent Rooker OVER 1.5 hits, runs, or RBI (+130 DK SportsBook)
I am continuing my theme here with another right-handed bat hitting in the middle of the order against a fly-ball-prone lefty. Rooker is getting his chance to be the cleanup hitter for Oakland and so far the returns have been good as he has four home runs and an OPS of 1.067 this season.
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