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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/2/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 2nd, 2022.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 57-62-2, -18.08 units
- Sides: 31-33-1, -12.77 units
- Totals: 25-29-1, -7.01 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL -172
OAK: JP Sears | BAL: Dean Kremer
We finished .500 on the weekend last week, but we're back at it again as we head into the season's home stretch. We'll once again be running a pair of first-inning unders this evening. We'll start in Baltimore where the visiting Athletics come in for a weekend set. They'll be sending JP Sears to the mound for his ninth start of the year. Sears has been nothing short of perfect in the first inning this season, holding opponents scoreless in his only road start as well as each of his seven home starts.
The home squad Orioles will be sending Dean Kremer to the mound. Kremer has been a nice surprise for the Orioles this season, bringing a 3.24 ERA into this contest. He's pitched well in the first inning, holding opponents scoreless in six of seven starts at Camden Yards this season as well as 11 of his 15 starts overall.
From the offensive front, neither team has been great at scoring in the first. The Athletics have scored in 29% first innings on the road and just in 25% of first innings overall. Conversely, the Orioles have scored in just 21% of first innings at home and in 20% of first innings overall. The Orioles have been a lineup of relatively tough outs of late, but have been held scoreless in seven of their last ten first innings. FanDuel Sportsbook has the under at just -113 tonight, while my model has the true line at -203.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-113) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -104
PHI: Kyle Gibson | SF: Alex Cobb
I'm heading out to San Francisco for the second first inning under of the night. The Phillies had no issues scoring on Wednesday night against the Diamondbacks after back-to-back rather embarrassing performances from their pitching staff. They'll look to bounce back this weekend against former manager Gabe Kapler and the San Francisco Giants. They'll be sending Kyle Gibson to the mound, who's been great in the first inning. He's allowed a first-inning run in just one of his 10 road starts and in just three of 25 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Giants will be sending righty Alex Cobb to the mound. I've talked about Cobb seemingly once a month this season about how unlucky he's been. He hasn't been too unlucky in the first inning, though, allowing a first-inning tally in just one of 12 starts at home and in just four of 21 starts overall. The Phillies have scored in four of their last ten first-innings and are always viable to score quick and score often, but I'll trust in Cobb tonight.
As I mentioned that the Phillies are able to score early and often on any given night, especially with Bryce Harper back, they've scored in 29% of first innings overall. That number drops to roughly 21% when they're on the road though. Conversely, the Giants have scored in just 21% of first innings both at home and overall. My model gives the first-inning under projected odds of -189, while FanDuel Sportsbook has the line at -132. Let's start the weekend hot with a couple of strong value plays.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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