RADIO
Michael F. Florio continues his scouting report series for the 2024 NFL Draft with the Tier 2 WRs. Florio explains why he is so high on Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy. He gives his scouting report and player comp for the rest of his top-10 receivers.
Unless you live under a rock, you have heard all about the elite three receivers that sit atop this draft class. They are all elite and should be great fantasy football options from Day 1. I wrote about them here (ADD). But the class does not end there.
There is a ton of receiver depth at the position. Over 20 of them could contribute at the NFL level. There is plenty of talent after the big three, and while I have ranked them in the order I like them, I will tell you there is no shot they get drafted in that order in the NFL Draft. With a class this versatile, team need and fit comes into play just as much as a prospect's talent.
The landing spot will greatly determine the fantasy value of rookie receivers. But that does not mean you should not know the players, their skill sets, and what kind of asset they can provide in fantasy football.
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NFL/Fantasy Scouting Report for WRs after Elite 3
Ladd McConkey is my WR4 in this class. That may seem bold, but there is a lot to like when you have his film. People will look at him and classify him as the prototypical slot receiver, and while he is awesome from the slot, he can win outside as well. McConkey is more explosive than he will get credit for, can track the deep ball well, and can adjust if it is underthrown.
He is an amazing route runner who often gets DBs to open their hips. He can also work the sideline very well and has excellent body control. He is also dangerous after the catch as he is elusive and has a nasty stutter step. McConkey can make a defender miss and then blow by them to pick up yards in chunks. He also has really strong hands.
McConkey can win against both zone and man with no problem. Where he struggled in college was against press coverage, as size is the one knock on him. Due to that, he will never be a true X, WR1-style player, but he does not need to be to have plenty of NFL success.
While watching him play, I was often reminded of Tyler Lockett. A pro’s pro type of receiver who can line up all over the field and is extremely explosive and dangerous downfield out of the slot. He will be his QB’s best friend in no time. McConkey could be a very strong fantasy asset on the right team.
Best 10-yard split amongst WRs (per @NextGenStats)
- Anthony Gould, 1.49
- Jalen Coker, 1.52
- Luke McCaffrey, 1.52
- Ladd McConkey, 1.52
- Adonai Mitchell, 1.52
- Jerome Burton, 1.53
- Ryan Flournoy, 1.53
- Jalen McMillan, 1.53
- Keon Coleman/Jacob Cowing/Xavier Legette, 1.54— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 2, 2024
Xavier Worthy is a receiver I am certainly higher on than most as my WR5 heading into the draft. If you have followed me at all in the past, you will not be surprised that I am a sucker for a player like Worthy. The speed is what immediately jumps out when you watch Worthy, and no surprise there since he ran the fastest 40 ever.
But he is not just fast, he is quick. He can cut and change direction in a flash with the ball in his hands. I expect him to be a difference-maker in this regard despite the size concerns. I know they play different positions, but the size concerns with Worthy reminded me of what people said about Jahmyr Gibbs last year. His size will impact his play -- but when you watch them, you do not see that.
Worthy does not shy away from contact and at times you see him lower his shoulder or throw a stiff arm. He is a “plays with a chip on his shoulder” type of player. He is also not afraid to go across the middle and hold onto the ball even when he knows he will get popped.
Now, if a defender gets hands on him, he is not going to break many tackles. But it is extremely difficult to get hands on him. But as a field-stretcher, he can really excel. He has strong hands and can track the long ball very well over his shoulder. The QB play certainly left a lot to be desired as he was often underthrown in college, but pairing him with a strong-arm QB like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, or Anthony Richardson would be scary for the NFL but extremely fun for fantasy managers.
#Texas WRs 2023
- Xavier Worthy: 123 tgt, 75 rec, 1,014 yds, 5 TDs, 571 YAC, 24 explosive plays, 10.6 aDOT, 2.08 yds per route, 13 missed tackles forced
- Adonai Mitchell: 92 tgt, 57 rec, 882 yds, 11 TDs, 178 YAC, 24 explosive plays, 16.8 aDOT, 1.73 yds per route, 6 MTF
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 28, 2024
While watching him play, I was reminded of Marquise Brown, Will Fuller V, and Jameson Williams -- all players I have championed in the past. But Worthy could be the best of the bunch there. He may be a bit up and down as a rookie, but the big plays are there. His speed is worth taking a shot in fantasy drafts as there is so much upside. He is an excellent best ball pick as well.
Fastest 40's among WRs at 2023 #NFLCombine
- Xavier Worthy, 4.22
- Adonai Mitchell, 4.34
- BrIan Thomas Jr, 4.34
- Devontez Walker, 4.36
- Jacob Cowing, 4.38
- Anthony Gould, 4.39
- Xavier Lagette, 4.39
- Ladd McConkey, 4.39
- Roman Wilson, 4.40
- Troy Franklin, 4.41— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 2, 2024
Brian Thomas Jr. is the consensus WR4 in this class, but he checks in sixth for me. Thomas is very toolsy as he has both size and blazing speed. He is a big-body target that can win both downfield and in the short game. He can use his speed to just blow past a DB and create separation for a deep pass. He is also a quick cutter who can blow past an entire defense if he gets a crease. He knows how to use his body to box out a defender and create space on short throws over the middle.
But most of his targets and routes were extremely short or just verticals downfield. He will need to widen his route tree to take the next step as an NFL receiver. Additionally, his size is often praised, but I came away wondering if he knew how to fully use it. Now, he can box out DBs like I said above, but rarely do you ever see him go over them. He had a very impressive contested catch against Texas A&M, but it stands out because there were very few others. Plus, there were more hand drops than you would like to see.
I struggled to find an exact comparison for Thomas. But the players I was reminded the most of were Christian Watson and a blast from the past Martavis Bryant. I have no doubts that he will have a long and successful career, but it may not be one that is the most beneficial for fantasy purposes. He has the upside to be a difference-maker if he can improve in some areas and a college player is never a finished product. But, in the worst-case scenario, he can play a Gabe Davis or Marquez Valdes-Scantling type of role for a long time in the league.
Adonai Mitchell is a big-body receiver who could be a true X at the NFL level. He is at his best on downfield routes and can track the ball very well. He also can adjust to underthrown balls and can contort his body and come down with the catch. He also excels on one-cut routes such as slants and is tough to stop on comeback routes.
He should make his presence felt in the red zone right away. And while his size and downfield ability get all the hype, he is a better YAC receiver than I think he gets credit for. You do not see it a ton on film, but when he is right, he looks much smaller and quicker than you would expect. Expect him to primarily play out wide at the NFL level, but he can succeed vs. man and finds the soft spots in zone coverage nicely.
While size is his calling card, there were not a ton of contested catches for him at Texas. There were some and I do believe he has the ability to play above the rim, but we will need to see it more consistently in the NFL. He can catch in a crowd, though, and use his body to box out a DB and create some space. One negative to me was he did struggle at times to create separation both at the line of scrimmage and downfield. Still, Mitchell should make a big fantasy impact as early as Year 1 if he falls into the right spot.
He has the upside to be a Michael Pittman Jr. type of receiver. He also reminded me of Nico Collins, minus the ability to win from the slot as well. Both of those are big receivers who can win downfield but have underrated after-the-catch abilities.
Adonai Mitchell is 6’2 and ran a 4.34 40 yard dash. Per @NextGenStats the only WRs that height or taller to run faster since 2003 are:
- Tyrone Calico
- Tyquan Thornton
- DK Metcalf
- DJ Chark— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 2, 2024
Ricky Pearsall is a versatile receiver who can win both from the slot and outside. But he is not just versatile in the sense he has experience lining up all over the field. Pearsall can get open at all three layers and win after the catch. He is an explosive route runner who can use his underrated speed to blow by DBs, can track the ball well, and has strong hands. He consistently won deep in college and also excelled after the catch. He is a shifty, elusive runner who can make defenders miss and is tough to bring down when he gets going. He can put up yards in chunks in a variety of ways.
The negative with Pearsall mostly comes down to size. He is not the biggest receiver, so physical corners could be an issue in the NFL. Not only can they use their hands to stick with him, but they can break up a pass or at times even knock it out of his hands. I believe Pearsall could be a Swiss Army knife type of receiver who plays some as a No. 2 out wide and some in the slot. But if all else fails, he can be a primary slot receiver. The entire time watching him, I was thinking of Adam Thielen. I think there would be more excitement toward him if not for McConkey, but he is a strong fantasy sleeper in a good offense.
Keon Coleman has size for days and he knows how to use it. His tape is littered with highlight-worthy contested catches. He is a jump-ball master who routinely wins with defenders draped all over him and knows how to use his size to box out a defender. He should be a force in the red zone wherever he ends up. He can win downfield with any double move and powers through press coverage. I also believe he is a better after-the-catch weapon than he may get credit for. He had a nice catch and run where he made two defenders miss and was out for a long TD against LSU. He also was the fastest receiver running the gauntlet at the Combine, so his game speed is better than his track speed.
The big negative, though, is he struggled mightily to create separation in college. He is always in a hands battle with corners, both at the line of scrimmage and basically throughout the entire route. The contested catches are special, but to be a consistent option at the NFL level, he will need to improve greatly in this regard. Because of his struggles to separate, he was better against zone than man coverage in college.
Coleman is a physical freak with a lot of tools and one big Achilles' heel. While watching him, I kept thinking of DeVante Parker, who also had a lot of upside and has had a nice NFL career, but never really reached the ceiling. He also could fare better playing inside a bit more at the next level. For fantasy, he is a high-upside, low-floor type of player. The QB he gets paired with will have to be comfortable throwing to tight windows and trusting him to go up and get the ball.
Troy Franklin is another big receiver in this class. He excels downfield and has the speed to consistently blow past DBs and win big. He tracks the ball well over his shoulder and can work the sideline. He should be an immediate focus in the red zone for whichever team drafts him. He often won on comebacks, slants, verticals, and crossing routes. Franklin has a good release at the line of scrimmage and can use his size to box out defenders. He also has the ability to win after the catch and pick up yards in chunks. He is not elusive, though, and will rely more on just out-running defenders.
I did come away, though, wondering if his hands would be an issue at the next level. Not only were there some bad drops but there were a lot of body catches. And while he has size, there were not a lot of jump balls or contested catches in the games that I watched. While watching him, I was reminded of both Robbie Chosen and Jalin Hyatt. Both share a similar frame, are big play merchants who can win downfield, but run a limited route tree and do not play as big as their size always.
For fantasy, I would expect a lot of big plays from Franklin. His ceiling is tied to the QB he is paired with, but if he gets a strong-armed QB who will air the ball out, he certainly brings upside. He could also end up being a better best ball type of player.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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