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Wide receivers are considered the safer early picks in fantasy football drafts in 2018, but some won't prove to be worth their ADP. Martin Konstantinov lists five overvalued WRs according to draft value.
As draft season approaches, it is important to remember that each player has a certain value. Every player can become a good selection for fantasy owners if they provide good value relative to their ADP's entering the draft. Therefore, a common strategy among fantasy football players is to draft players who have fallen below their ADP to maximize the value that they receive from those players.
One position where fantasy owners tend to ignore hidden value, however, is wide receiver. Despite the fact that the difference between top wideouts and complimentary options is not incredibly huge, many fantasy owners still reach for wideouts that they believe will be difference makers at the position.
Let's take a look at some overvalued wide receivers and try to figure out if they are worth the current value of their ADP or if fantasy owners should hold off on drafting them until they fall to a more reasonable position.
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Five Overvalued Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs, MIN (3.03)
Currently being drafted at the top of the third round by fantasy owners (according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com) in half-ppr drafts, Stefon Diggs is being considered among the top options as a borderline WR1/2 this season. Diggs has already had a solid NFL career despite only being 24 years old, with 702, 903, and 849 yards in his three years in the league. Additionally, after scoring seven touchdowns in his first two seasons combined, Diggs was able to find the endzone eight times in 2017. With the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins and the incumbent options around Diggs (running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Adam Thielen), everything looks to be in place for a huge year from the Vikings wideout. However, keep in mind that Diggs has failed to stay healthy in any of his three NFL seasons, is due for some regression in the touchdown department, and still has not reached 1,000 yards in a season. Although he is a very talented receiver, his health issues do not warrant a third round pick when there are locked-in options around him at his draft cost.
Tyreek Hill, KC (3.06)
Tyreek Hill has been one of the most enjoyable players to watch since entering the NFL. A gadget player in his first season, Hill scored 12 touchdowns as a receiver, runner, and returner. However, it was in 2017 that Hill truly broke out, with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven scores (along with another return touchdown), demonstrating his versatility as well as big-play ability from the position. With an increase of over six yards in his yards per catch (9.7 to 15.8), it looks as if Hill is set for another huge year in 2018. Unfortunately, playing with new starting quarterback Pat Mahomes is sure to have its ups and downs. Additionally, the Chiefs offense has a ton of mouths to feed, with tight end Travis Kelce, running backs Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all expecting to get their fair share of targets and touches this season. Therefore, it is tough to justify Hill's current draft cost unless you believe that the Chiefs will be the best offense in the NFL this year.
Josh Gordon, CLE (4.09)
Having just returned to the team in the middle of preseason, it is tough to envision Gordon carving out a significant chunk of the team's offensive looks early in the season. Gordon has to compete with target hog Jarvis Landry as well as wide receiver Antonio Callaway, a trio of running backs, and tight end David Njoku for looks. With Tyrod Taylor expected to start over rookie Baker Mayfield at quarterback, expect some good targets to come Gordon's way if he is able to get on the field. However, the uncertainty that surrounds Gordon, his threat to not be included in the team for whatever reason, and the stable of other options the Browns have at their disposal make him a very risky option heading into the 2018 season and not worth the 4th round pick that internet meme lovers are artificially propping up as his true value.
Jamison Crowder, WAS (7.10)
Jamison Crowder's three NFL seasons to this point have all been very consistent - between 600 and 900 yards and a few touchdowns (2, 7, and 3). He looks to be a very stable option for 2018 as one of new quarterback Alex Smith's most reliable targets, putting him in line for a solid year at the position. Despite this positive outlook, the overall state of the Redskins offense and the fact that Crowder has never shown that elite potential outside of full-PPR formats make the slot receiver's value hard to swallow. Crowder is currently being drafted around guys like Sammy Watkins and Devin Funchess, who by the nature of their playing style and role in the offense offer a bit more upside at the same value, which is ultimately what fantasy owners should want in a player who will most likely not start for them out of the gate.
Mike Williams, SD (9.08)
Despite being selected as the seventh overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft, Mike Williams had an incredibly underwhelming rookie season. Williams was injured for the start of the year, and when he entered the team he was only able to muster up 11 catches for 95 yards. While he looks to be a good redzone option in 2018, Williams will have to fight with fellow wide receivers Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin for consistent looks each week. With the lack of a healthy tight end, Williams will most likely get his fair share of looks inside the 20. However, his weekly targets will not be enough to justify putting him out there for any given game (think of it like Josh Doctson last season - decent end numbers but incredibly unreliable during the year). At his value, there are more consistent options around him that should give fantasy owners motivation to hold off on selecting him unless he falls a bit into the double digit rounds of drafts.
