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The first base position has definitely gone through some changes over the last few years. While still home to a lot of good power hitters, the elite at the position is thinner than it used to be. It's also a position that is on the older side. The majority of the mid-tier first baseman wind up being guys like Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, or C.J. Cron. This makes it kind of tricky when it comes to finding the next star at first base.
Don’t worry, it’s not impossible to break out at first base. Jared Walsh was the perfect example last year going from virtually an unknown to being an All-Star in 2021.
Finding a Jared Walsh right before their rise is a great feeling, and I’m ready to find some more. Here are three first basemen who are ready to break out in 2022.
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Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
Alex Kirilloff has all the makings of having a breakout season in 2022. He’s only 24-years-old, should get as much playing time as he can handle, and showed flashes of potential in his first season. While his .251 batting average, .423 slugging, and .307 WOBA are nothing to write home about, his expected stats tell a completely different story. His expected batting average was .291 (+.04), his xSLG was .541 (+.118), and his xWOBA was .367 (+.06). Those are some of the largest positive differences I’ve ever seen.
It’s more impressive to learn that he was playing through a wrist injury since May, the same one that led to season-ending surgery in July. He was a top-25 prospect for a reason, so it’ll be important not to forget about him and prepare for a real breakout this season.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
We’ve seen rookies make a big fantasy impact before, and we are going to see it again. While we don’t know for sure when Torkelson will make his big league debut, it is likely sooner than later. The number one overall pick in the 2020 draft with high grades in both his hit and power tools, the 21-year-old looks to be one of the most MLB-ready hitters we’ve seen in a while.
Essentially, whatever the ceiling is for Torkelson, I think he can be closer to it right away than other rookies have in the past. He steamrolled his way right through the minor leagues last year, starting in High A and ending in AAA all in 2021. He did that by showing his superior power and on-base skills, hitting 30 HR with a .383 OBP and .935 OPS across all levels. He was more than comfortable in the higher levels too, hitting 14 home runs in 50 games in AA and 11 in 40 games in AAA.
The Tigers lineup is improved and Torkelson will be given every opportunity to succeed once called up, giving him a great chance to make an immediate impact. Given some of the homers he’s hit in the minors, Comerica Park isn't scaring me that much. An immediate breakout is very possible here.
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Maybe this should be considered a re-breakout? After seeing a lot of success early in his career, Rhys Hoskins has fallen off in the minds of many. Digging into the numbers was interesting, as outside of a few outlier stats (.226 AVG in 2019 for example), he hasn’t been that much worse than his 2018 season. Not only that, but his underlying metrics also suggest that last year was his best year and is due for a lot more success than he’s been seeing.
His .364 WOBA was below his expected WOBA of .378 and his .530 SLG was also below his .564 xSLG. This likely has to do with just how hard he hit the ball last season. His 17% barrel rate was in the 94th percentile, and everything from max exit velocity and average exit velocity to his hard-hit rate was all in the 77th percentile or higher. His 10.6 walk rate in 2021 wasn’t great, but I think this can be considered as an outlier due to his walk rate never being below 13.2% in his career and getting as high as 16.5% in a full season in 2019. I’m also optimistic about his on-base because of the trajectory of his WOBA last season and how it began to skyrocket before his season-ending lower abdomen injury.
Hoskins seems to be figuring things out, and his Statcast numbers suggest this breakout should have happened last year. Assuming good health, the sixth-year pro has the chance to reach new heights in 2022.
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