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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Everyone – It doesn't mean to play everyone, but it signifies that I don't have a strong take on who to get rid of in this section. There are weeks where specific names are easily excluded, but we aren't going to have that luxury at the CJ Cup, as all four options carry about 35% of the event's win equity.
I have had some change of heart since my Monday article, but the overall premise remains the same. I'll likely get my exposure to Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, but I don't think you can go wrong with any of these choices, making it a problematic board to eliminate options near the top.
Other Thoughts - McIlroy's ownership ultimately made me shift toward Rahm, although a top 10 seems likely. And the decision between Thomas and Scheffler came down to the high-end metrics that Thomas provided. I don't love that sharp markets hate his potential while the public loves him, but I will trust my model.
$9,000 Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) - Numbers are starting to move toward Matthew Fitzpatrick regarding ownership, which I don't love, but I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes a bait-and-switch on Thursday morning that sees the Englishman shift marginally under the radar.
Fitzpatrick's lack of distance isn't the negative it is cracked up to be because of the firm/fast nature of the test, and the short game prowess and excellent production historically on challenging tracks should only heighten his upside to compete for the title. Even if we get stuck in this range of the 28-year-old at around 16%, the popularity marks are jumbled together for everyone in this section, and I still believe we can get unique with builds by using him. My guess is that last-minute shifts take place that move lineups from Fitzpatrick to Burns to alleviate some of the ownership creeping much further than this total, but we will see if that comes to fruition shortly.
Sungjae Im ($9,600) - We have seen Sungjae Im ride both good and bad form more than most players on tour, and the recent run of six top-30 finishes in a row makes the popularity around the South Korean warranted. My model believes Im is a top-five golfer in this field, and the high-end marks this week for weighted tee-to-green play, bogey avoidance, par-five production, and scoring at long courses only will add to the course fit narrative.
Other Thoughts: I was pretty surprised by Sam Burns' ownership total being sub-12 percent. I don't hate going there as a pivot. I also am not opposed to using Max Homa ($9,100).
$8,000 Range
Jordan Spieth ($8,800) - Spieth's upside sees a massive increase when mimicking the data to fit Congaree. He is 15 spots better than expected with his weighted proximity, and the fact that he can spray the ball off the tee will help an already stout short game. The American is one of my favorite targets on the board and could have been $1,000 more expensive than this total.
Other Thoughts: Shane Lowry ($8,300), Billy Horschel ($8,000) and Corey Conners ($8,000) will all make my player pool.
$7,000 Range
Brian Harman ($7,700) - We don't think of long courses as being beneficial for Brian Harman, but I believe it is one of the reasons he has shown life in the past at U.S. Open venues. Harman's form is trending in the right direction, and the recalculated par-three/par-four scoring places him fifth in this field. Add that to his short game expertise, and we have a golfer that might be able to use his accuracy to create extra rollout on these fast fairways.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,600) - Consider this a devaluation in price because of Fleetwood's lack of perceived win equity. I think we are getting a rebate at $7,600 since my model believes he should be slotted next to Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton in the $8,000s, and the popularity isn't following suit, which is good for the upside he possesses for the price tag.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,100) - Sharp money is flowing in the direction of Kurt Kitayama inside the betting market, and my model seems to coincide with the thought process. At roughly six percent owned, I will take a shot that he finds a way to use his distance to an advantage, and he was one of only three golfers that weren't projected to be over 10 percent that ranked inside the top 10 for length. The other two were Wyndham Clark and Luke List.
Additional Options To Consider: You can look at my model to find more options, but Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, Jason Day and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are all inside my player pool.
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
Luke List ($6,800) - Negative-4.51 shots per event to the field over the last six trackable starts for Luke List and his putter. I always say that a more challenging test naturally reduces the importance of the flat stick, and the 13 consecutive starts gaining with his ball-striking might finally get to show on the leaderboard.
Chris Kirk ($6,600) - Chris Kirk feels like a non-popular version of Gary Woodland. I like both and will find a way to fit Woodland into some builds, but give me half the popularity when both golfers are spiraling over their past 24 rounds.
Danny Willett ($6,200) - The long iron proximity is elite, and the short game should be able to avoid mistakes. I can't imagine many find their way onto Willett because of his lack of length, but when we exclude that data point, the Englishman quickly jumps inside the top 40 of my model.
Options I am Prioritizing:
| Player | Price |
| Jon Rahm | $10,900 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,200 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $9,800 |
| Sungjae Im | $9,600 |
| Jordan Spieth | $8,800 |
| Brian Harman | $7,700 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $7,600 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $7,100 |
| Luke List | $6,800 |
| Chris Kirk | $6,600 |
| Danny Willett | $6,200 |
You can use my model (or the other recommendations in this article) to continue to fill out your player pools.
Options I am Considering For Less Exposure:
| Player | Price |
| Sam Burns | $9,300 |
| Max Homa | $9,100 |
| Shane Lowry | $8,300 |
| Billy Horschel | $8,000 |
| Corey Conners | $8,000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,800 |
| Cameron Davis | $7,500 |
| Jason Day | $7,500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | $7,200 |
| Alex Smalley | $6,600 |
| Gary Woodland | $6,400 |
DraftKings Pricing Difference Versus Rank:
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