What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 125. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 4-3).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 125.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Thiago Santos vs Anthony Smith

This fight quietly has Fight of the Night potential. Santos and Smith are two strikers that are each coming off three knockout wins. The formula seems fairly easy for both fighters. Santos needs to start fast and find a knockout early in the fight. He comes with tremendous power, but also has had issues with his cardio in the past. Smith is a gutsy fighter that takes a lot of punishment while tiring his opponents out and finding knockouts later in the fight. Smith is a fighter that can take a lot of damage, but he is also extremely hittable. Santos has a diverse striking background and enough power to finish any fight in one strike. While I tend not to question Smith’s heart, I simply do not believe he will be able to continuously eat strikes from Santos the way he is able to do with other fighters.

Thiago Santos, TKO, 1st Round

 

Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm

Johnson is a tough fighter to predict. He is a wrestler that can somewhat be described as a gatekeeper for the heavyweight rankings. He tends to win fights that he should win, while losing ones against stiffer competition. Golm is much more of an unknown. He is a highly touted prospect that has only six professional fights in his career. He looked outstanding in his UFC debut, but there is a major difference between Christian Colombo and Timothy Johnson. I worry about the weight difference between these two, especially since Johnson is a wrestler that loves controlling his opponents. I simply do not know if he is athletic enough to keep up with Golm. As long as Golm can keep Johnson off of him, he should have a clear path to victory. Johnson certainly has his path to victory, but it is going to be a much more difficult path than Golm has.

Marcelo Golm, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Michel Prazeres vs Desmond Green

Prazeres is a grinding fighter that features a relentless grappling pace throughout his fights. He loves searching for takedowns and grinding fighters out once he secures them. He is not an overly active striker, though. Green has the edge in striking in this fight, but he will need to keep this fight standing for that to matter. While he has flashed good takedown defense early in his UFC career, Prazeres is a strong fighter that could wear down Green is he is able to get close. Green’s height advantage will help with his distance, but Prazeres is a short fighter that has always been able to handle height differential well in the past. He is too relentless of a grappler to ignore, and his multiple takedowns and control time will be enough to sway the judges in this fight.

Michel Prazeres via Unanimous Decision

 

Valentina Shevchenko vs Priscila Cachoeira

I’m not going to go too in-depth on this fight because I don’t feel I need to. Shevchenko is arguably the best women’s flyweight fighter in the world. She will become the champion as soon as she gets a fight for the belt. Cachoeira is an undefeated prospect, but it is difficult to see how after watching her fights. She is a striker that is simply not ready for the UFC, especially one of the best in the world in her weight class. Shevchenko will be able to anything she wants in this fight. It’s that cut and dry.

Valentina Shevchenko, TKO, 2nd Round

 

John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz

This is one of the most difficult fights to predict this week. Dodson has not looked elite at the bantamweight level, while Munhoz is coming off a few great wins. The big thing with Munhoz is that he has an elite Guillotine Choke, but I’m not sure how often Dodson will be in a position that Munhoz will get able to get it. Munhoz is the more active striker, but he is also a much less defensive striker. Dodson likes to work behind his jab, which will make grappling more difficult for Munhoz. It’s a razor thin decision between these two, but I believe Munhoz’s diversity in his striking will sway the judges a bit more, as Dodson will mainly land jabs. It’s a small reasoning for picking a fight, but the added takedown potential for Munhoz makes him the more likely candidate to win a decision.

Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision

 

Lyoto Machida vs Eryk Anders

I absolutely love this fight for a few reasons. Machida is 1-4 in his last five fights, but he has lost to Derek Brunson, Yoel Romero, Luke Rockhold, and Chris Weidman. That is a murderer’s row of fighters, and it will be interesting to see if Machida is still good enough to beat less than elite level talent. Anders has made an imprint in the division in only two fights. He displayed elite power against Rafael Natal before showing off his cardio against Markus Perez. Anders was a former linebacker for Alabama, so we’re all aware of his elite athleticism. There is also generally a big jump in a fighter’s progress early in their career, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Anders come out significantly better this time around than in his last fight. With that being said, he struggles defensively a bit, and Machida is the type of fighter that can make you pay for that. Grappling will be a major part of this fight, and I’m siding slightly with Machida in that department. Still, I think Anders is the significantly more athletic fighter, and if he can continue to progress at the rate he is right now, he will be a force in the middleweight division. Vegas has Anders as a sizable favorite, and I don’t necessarily think that should be the case, but he should pull off a big win this weekend.

Eryk Anders, TKO, 2nd Round