RADIO
On Monday, the Ravens got more bad news in regard to second-year running back Kenneth Dixon. Already suspended the first four games of the season for a violation of the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, Dixon has now been ruled out for the season with a knee injury.
Dixon tore the meniscus in his right knee and underwent surgery to fully repair the area. There was hope he might just need the meniscus trimmed, which could lead him to return to the field sooner, but that wasn't the case. Dixon will be sidelined approximately six months, which means his 2017 campaign is officially over before it began.
Dixon was a risky pick as it is in fantasy drafts, considering he was slated to miss a quarter of the season anyway. What does this mean for the rest of the Ravens and who might step in to take his place, either on the roster or in free agency?
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Kenneth Dixon's Impact in Baltimore
A fourth-round pick out of Louisiana Tech, Dixon dominated in college but didn't boast particularly impressive combine numbers. Nonetheless, he had ample opportunity to shine for the Ravens, who continue to search for a bellcow back. Dixon averaged 4.3 yards per carry in his rookie season, although he only toted the rock 88 times. He got a late start to the season because of an MCL sprain suffered in the preseason. That makes today's news even more devastating since Dixon has now suffered multiple knee injuries in a short time and will carry the "injury-prone" label. He was effective at times, including a Monday night game against New England where he totaled 81 yards and a touchdown. He started to become a threat in the passing game, catching 16 passes in a three-week span at one point. He also finished the season with a score in three of the last four games.
The Ravens didn't lean on him too much, never giving Dixon more than 13 carries in a game. He only broke double-digit carries four times in 12 contests, but then again they pretty much had abandoned the running game by mid-season anyway. They threw the ball a league-high 711 times in 2016, even 15 more than the pass-happy Saints. It appears that won't change much this year. The Ravens are now without a legitimate breakaway threat in the backfield and may have no choice but to put the ball in Joe Flacco's hands more than they'd like. New acquisition Jeremy Maclin should see his ADP bump up a bit more, while Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman remain sneaky value plays in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. With no clear replacement for Dennis Pitta at tight end, who is also out for the season with a recurring neck injury, either Maxx Williams or Crockett Gillmore could be buy-low targets in dynasty. The receptions lost by Pitta and retired Steve Smith will be funneled directly to other receivers and/or running backs, so there is clearly opportunity for one or more RB in Baltimore to gain value further with Dixon's absence.
In-House Replacements
For the time being, the running attack in Baltimore will be led by Terrance West and Danny Woodhead. West should see the bulk of the work on first and second downs, along with goal-line duties. Woodhead will play his usual role on third down and passing situations. West came just shy of 200 carries last year and finished with 774 rushing yards and five TD, along with a 4.0 yards per carry average. All those numbers served as career highs for the three-year veteran. He took 73% of the team's red zone carries last year, but that number should increase even more. If the team chooses to add nobody of consequence through free agency, West should eclipse those numbers easily, giving him low-end RB2 value in standard leagues. His current ADP of 8.11 won't last long.
Woodhead has a more defined ceiling, but could be of greater value in PPR leagues than West is in standard. Last year was a wash for him due to injury, but he caught 80 passes in 2015 and 76 in 2013 for the Chargers. The fact that he's missed the majority of the season in two of the last four should be of some concern, but right now he looks like a good value at his current ADP of 5.08 in PPR drafts. Don't overpay for him based on this injury news, however, as Woodhead has only broken 1,000 yards from scrimmage twice in his eight seasons and has never scored double-digit touchdowns. He is a solid RB2, but no higher.
Bobby Rainey was signed as soon as news broke of Dixon's surgery, but he should be nothing more than backfield depth. In 15 games with the Giants last season, he totaled 216 yards from scrimmage, even as the Giants themselves struggled to find a solution at running back. He has an adequate 4.0 Y/A for his career, but is no threat for significant playing time and may not survive training camp if another player is signed.
Free Agents Considerations
The following players will see their names bandied about with each injury that occurs to an RB over the next few weeks, but they should be monitored closely nonetheless.
- Ryan Mathews is an Eagle as of right now, but that's only because he can't be cut until he's medically cleared. His neck surgeon wants to wait until August to revisit the matter, so it's just a matter of time before he lands elsewhere now that LeGarrette Blount has taken his job. Mathews averages 4.4 Y/A for his career and has been effective when healthy, which has been rare unfortunately. He has the most appeal of the names listed here and could be a nice late-round pick in MFL10 best-ball formats.
- James Starks has been replaced by a quartet of rookies in Green Bay, so he will take his services elsewhere. He benefited from a prolific offense and good run-blocking, but will have far less value wherever he ends up. As a pass-catching threat, he isn't the type of back Baltimore needs with Woodhead already in tow.
- Rashad Jennings is 32 years old, but should still have something left in the tank since he's tallied less than 1,000 carries for his career (930 to be exact). He might be a nice fit here and is someone to watch for in the coming weeks.
- DeAngelo Williams is a bit longer in the tooth and has 1,966 touches to his credit between rush attempts and receptions. He has been banged up a bit over the last couple of seasons, which is why Pittsburgh chose to go younger to backup Le'Veon Bell. Williams is best suited for a change-of-pace role at this point, which severely limits his fantasy value no matter where he signs.
- Ronnie Hillman and Denard Robinson were given tryouts by the Dallas Cowboys, who may be scrambling to prepare for life without Ezekiel Elliott for a couple of games. Neither impressed enough to get a contract and likely won't do so in Baltimore either.
- Carlos Hyde isn't a free agent... yet, although recent reports indicate he may become one. The new regime isn't overwhelmed by his lack of participation in the passing game and work ethic, so he could be a surprising casualty of training camp. He is the most intriguing possibility on this list, but don't go trading for him just yet. He wouldn't be going to a significantly better offense or one with an especially good offensive line. The Ravens have the 22nd ranked O-line heading into this season, which raises the question of how much value any of these backs truly would have as Kenneth Dixon's replacement.
While West and Woodhead get a small bump in value, the biggest winner in all of this may be Joe Flacco and the Ravens' receivers, such as Jeremy Maclin and Breshad Perriman. These players can be had for a minimal cost in fantasy drafts right now, but could see much heavier target share than last season as the Ravens continue to seek answers in the running game and defensively.
