RADIO
A weekly look back at the NASCAR Cup Series predictions and projections from the RotoBaller DFS NASCAR team.
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race, we will review the previous event for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games, and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR analysts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
For access to the full suite of content from Jordan and the crew and our deluxe garage of tools that can help you win big in both DFS and NASCAR betting, strap in with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Included in the setup are our lineup optimizer, research station, cheat sheets, VIP chats, and much more.
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The Algorithm Excels at Dover
Jordan McAbee’s established successful algorithm for predicted finishes is one of the major features of RotoBaller’s DFS and betting NASCAR coverage. Several key statistics are baked into the algorithm formula, including recent performances overall and specific track data points, similar track performances, projected strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting positions, and other notable factors.
The algorithm generates a "Power Index" number for each driver to highlight which cars will have the top speeds during a race. All of the drivers are ranked by the Power Index numbers to generate the predicted finishing order.
McAbee’s formulaic mastery was on full display at Dover International Speedway, where Denny Hamlin won as forecasted. Yet, the outstanding accuracy of the algorithm extended well beyond the race winner. Consider these predicted and final finishes.
- Martin Truex Jr. – Predicted third, finished third.
- Kyle Larson – Predicted fifth, finished second.
- Kyle Busch – Predicted seventh, finished fourth.
- Ryan Blaney – Predicted fourth, finished seventh.
- Alex Bowman – Predicted eighth, finished eighth.
- Tyler Reddick – Predicted 11th, finished 11th.
- Josh Berry – Predicted 15th, finished 14th.
Overall, eight of the drivers who finished in the top 10 were forecasted to do so by the algorithm.
Denny Hamlin Earns His Third Win
Denny Hamlin takes the checkered flag at Dover, cashing the 7-1 outright ticket & his season win total over 2.5 for those invested. #Wurth400 pic.twitter.com/nQHridwe2W
— Seth Woolcock (@Between_SethFF) April 28, 2024
The DFS NASCAR coverage doesn’t end in the RotoBaller Driver News feed when races are completed. Our staff of experts continues to break down the performances of drivers after the events are finished, providing important insights to reflect on and to consider for future races.
Here is Sean Wrona’s post-race analysis on Denny Hamlin, who notched his third win of the 2024 season so far. He led for the most laps (136) and was first in Fastest Laps (59) and Driver Rating (140.8).
“Hamlin's win shouldn't have come as a surprise because many observers expected that the tire wear at Dover would be similar to that at Bristol, a race where Hamlin dominated. Although the Dover race ended up not being much like Bristol, Hamlin still won, led the most laps, posted the fastest average speed, and took the lead from the other leading favorite, Kyle Larson, on the lap 329 restart shortly before the race's biggest crash.”
“With his win, Hamlin ties William Byron in wins with three this season and extends his lead in most races with an on-track pass for the lead to eight. Denny continues to rank second in speed for the season to his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr.”
Targeting Truex for Success
RotoBaller’s Justin Carter is a versatile analyst who covers all key NASCAR series for the site. He also provides regular DFS previews in the Xfinity and Truck circuits for those dedicated to being completist competitors.
Carter also supplies his preferred picks in the Cup Series. Savvy DFS players must consider more than one source when building multiple lineups, and should always consult Carter’s rundowns of drivers to target.
For Dover, Carter strongly recommended Truex as a prime core lineup play, noting his historical success at the site. Plus, as he highlighted, the No. 19 driver was a great pick for his Place Differential promise. Here is Carter’s pre-race outlook on Truex.
“You can't come to Dover without talking about Martin Truex Jr., a four-time Cup Series winner at this track. This is tied with Sonoma for the title of MTJ's winningest track. This includes a win there last year, with Truex starting 17th and leading 68 laps on his way to Victory Lane. That marked the fifth time in the past seven races there that Truex finished first or second. Truex also highlights something about DFS strategy for this race, which is that Place Differential is going to be huge.”
Social Media Spotlight
A nifty Futures wager to consider.
Last week on #StackingDennys, I grabbed Chastain +2500 for the Championship as we were recording.
He’s now +3000 so I’m going back and betting it again.
On Superbook.
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) April 29, 2024
The RotoBaller Betting Picks recap for Dover.
Dover betting wrap-up:
✅ Bowman top 10 (+100)
✅ Elliott top 10 (-125)
✅ Bowman > McDowell stage 1 (-125)❌ Bell top 10 (+160)
❌ Toyotas over 3.5 in top 10 (+135)
❌ Truex live (+700)Total for week: -2 units #NASCAR @RotoBaller https://t.co/XsCn3fLaT4
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) April 29, 2024
Forecast of the Week
“In the Xfinity Series, Gragson has five top-10 finishes in seven Dover starts. With 10 races completed in the 2024 season so far, Gragson has seven top-20 finishes, with three inside the Top 10.” In practice, Gragson ranked 11th in 10-consecutive lap averages, third in 15-consecutive lap averages, and was the only driver to run at least 20 consecutive laps.”
“With his car looking solid in practice, Gragson could work as a sneaky tournament play where not many would roster him, especially as he is capable of placing in the Top 10.” – NASCAR driver news writer Sean Engel’s pre-race outlook on Noah Gragson, who finished sixth.
Around the Track
-Sean recapped the fourth-place finish for Busch and has an eye on him for the next event at Kansas -- “Busch would eventually rally back to capture just his second top-5 finish of the year. This finish also marked Busch's second top-10 at Dover within the last five Cup events at the site. As the Cup Series heads to Kansas next week, Busch looks to continue building momentum at a track where he has two wins and 15 top-10 finishes, including last year's race there, where he placed seventh.”
-In his Xfinity preview for the BetRivers 200, Carter recommended Sam Mayer, who started 20th and finished third -- “I love Mayer as a place differential play this weekend. His 2024 season has been kind of rough minus his one victory, but two of his three top 10s have come in the last three races. His average finish at Dover is 7.0.”
