RADIO
A weekly look back and ahead in the NASCAR Cup Series for DFS NASCAR players. Who were the best picks on DraftKings and FanDuel?
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race and prior to the next event, we will review the previous week’s results for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR experts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified, and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
For access to the full suite of content from Jordan and the crew and our deluxe garage of tools that can help you win big in both DFS and NASCAR betting, strap in with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Included in the setup are our lineup optimizer, research station, cheat sheets, VIP chats, and much more. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount.
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Enjoy Illinois 300: The Post-Race DFS Inspection
As we prepare for the next event at Sonoma Raceway, a rundown of picks that click at Gateway demonstrates how accurate the projections and forecasts of the RotoBaller staff can be.
The Algorithm Was On Point
Jordan McAbee’s distinctive and proven algorithm for projecting finishes is a crux of RotoBaller’s NASCAR coverage for DFS players. A blend of essential statistics is utilized in the algorithm formula, including recent results and overall trends, specific track data markers, similar track performances, predicted strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting positions, and other important stats.
The algorithm then churns out a "Power Index" number for every driver to project which cars will have the top speeds for a race. All drivers are ranked by their Power Index number to assemble a predicted finishing order.
The algorithm recently went on a strong three-week run. In the Darlington race, four of the drivers who finished in the top eight were projected to place in that range by the algorithm. At Dover, the formula correctly pinpointed eight drivers to place in the top 10, including two exact finishes and three within three spots of their actual finishes. The algorithm also nailed six of the top eight finishers. Four of the top five finishers at Kansas placed within one to two spots of their forecasted final positions.
At World Wide Technology Raceway, the formula continued to come through with impressive results.
Denny Hamlin – predicted to finish first, finished second.
Tyler Reddick – predicted to finish third, finished fourth.
Joey Logano – predicted to finish fifth, finished fifth.
Brad Keselowski – predicted to finish seventh, finished third.
Christopher Bell – predicted to finish fourth, finished seventh.
Ty Gibbs – projected to finish 10th, finished 11th.
Ross Chastain – predicted to finish 13th, finished 12th.
Chase Elliott – predicted to finish 14th, finished 13th.
Overall, the formula pinpointed five of the top seven finishers. Ryan Blaney was also predicted to finish second and was in position to win the race on the final lap, but he ran out of fuel. The algorithm just missed projecting the top two drivers in swapped order.
Cindric Swoops In For The Win
Austin Cindric’s crew chief Brian Wilson says they wanted to pit on the same lap as Blaney but the 12 team did a good job disguising it. Cindric pitted a lap after and had enough fuel to win the race and do a burn out. pic.twitter.com/SyIcXXkYN9
— Mitchell Kaminski (@MitchKaminski99) June 2, 2024
When Blaney sputtered at the end of the race at Gateway, Penske teammate Austin Cindric flew to his first win since the 2022 Daytona 500. In his DFS race preview for the Enjoy Illinois 300, McAbee highlighted Cindric as a prime tournament play at $6,200 on DraftKings.
“Okay, hear me out here. A lot of DraftKings players are going to gravitate toward Michael McDowell ($6.5K) this weekend because he's on the pole, and it's hard to pass at Gateway. McDowell may lead a good chunk of laps early and contend for a top-10 finish.”
“However. why can't Cindric do the exact same thing? It's obvious the Penske cars have speed this weekend, and Cindric has a better pit crew than McDowell. Gateway has also been one of Cindric's only tracks where he has been competitive (he's finished 11th and 13th in the two races there). I don't mind a Cindric pivot off of McDowell this weekend at all.”
Jordan had listed Blaney as his top core play, so even if the No. 12 driver didn’t run out of fuel, McAbee would have correctly recommended the ultimate winner. For those who followed the advice to roster Cindric, though, the outcome was sweeter, especially for the price tag.
While the Cindric win was welcomed after an 85-race winless drought was snapped, McAbee says that the victory may have actually hurt Team Penske overall.
Social Media Spotlight
The first bet of the week for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 is now available. Follow the path to cashing out.
First bet locked in for Sonoma!
Betting post up on @RotoBaller
Use code JORDAN24 https://t.co/S0xMvvblif— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 6, 2024
Jordan and Nick Giffen went live this week to recap Gateway and preview the race at Sonoma. You can watch the full show here.
Yo!
We're trying out livestreaming #stackingdennys
We're live now #NASCAR
Watch here: https://t.co/flt5mef4sP@RotoDoc
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 5, 2024
The Gateway Betting recap
Quick Gateway recap...
The good ✅ I wrote up Cindric as a tournament play on DraftKings... projections loved Hocevar
The bad❌ Lucky Larson top 10 kept the betting card from being an absolute bloodbath. I hate Christopher Bell.
-1.1 units on the day 👎🏼
+41.46 units… pic.twitter.com/zTCEoOiIfb— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 3, 2024
Better Times Ahead For Bell
At World Wide Technology Raceway, Christopher Bell led the most laps (80) and had the highest Driver Rating (133.7). RotoBaller NASCAR analyst Sean Wrona went beyond the seventh-place finish in his recap of Bell’s performance on the driver news page. Our updates also look ahead while reviewing results.
“By most metrics, Christopher Bell dominated Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway. Not only did he have the fastest average lap time by nearly a 10th of a second, he led the most laps, won the first two stages, and made three of the race's five on-track passes for the lead. It's debatable whether Ryan Blaney's pass on Lap 222 should even count since Bell suddenly slowed due to losing a cylinder around the same time that Blaney took the lead.”
“While Bell elected to continue on the track, he faded to seventh but shockingly finished ahead of Blaney in a wacky finish when Blaney unexpectedly ran out of fuel on the last lap. Even though Bell's equipment was not as strong as he was Sunday, Bell's back-to-back dominant runs bode well for the future, and his much-improved passing numbers are also a good sign for the rest of the season.”
Forecast Of The Week
Brad Keselowski was not widely rostered but was recommended by 14-time DFS tournament winner Sean Engel in his pre-race update: “Keselowski will start this week's race from the seventh position. This is the highest starting position of Keselowski's Cup career at WWTR and the second-highest of the season.”
“After 14 races this season, Keselowski has seven top-10 finishes, including four top-5 finishes in the last six Cup events. In practice, Keselowski ranked 13th in five consecutive lap averages and fifth in overall lap averages. Look for the driver of the No. 6 Ford to be a solid tournament option to compete for a top-10 finish based on his recent performance this season, regardless of track type."
Would have to say a core strength for Brad Keselowski and the #6 team is that they get better over the course of the race.
Keselowski's speed ranking over the segments at Gateway went .... 23rd > 16th > 6th > 1st
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) June 5, 2024
he No. 6 Ford to be a solid tournament option to compete for a top-10 finish based on his recent performances this season, regardless of track type.”
Adam Erhardt then recapped the call in his post-race update: “Sunday's race marked Keselowski's fifth top-three finish over the last seven weeks and his seventh this season. It also marked his fourth consecutive appearance in the DraftKings optimal lineup (in points-paying races) and his sixth of 2024, which is the most appearances of any driver in the series.”
“Incredibly, despite his recent hot streak, the RFK driver-owner had just 11.69% of the ownership in DraftKings featured contest, which was lower than Michael McDowell (35.93%), Josh Berry (28.62%), Todd Gilliland (24.2%), Daniel Suarez (22.8%), Noah Gragson (18.71%), Bubba Wallace (12.89%), and Carson Hocevar (12.79%), drivers that are nowhere near the caliber of driver that Keselowski is.”
But you should consider fading Keselowski this upcoming week, according to Adam. -“Unfortunately for the No. 6, his streak of top-three finishes will likely end on Sunday, as NASCAR heads to Sonoma, a track where he has a career average finish of 16.1.”
Around The Track
-Ty Gibbs just missed a top-10 finish at Gateway after Sean Engel expected him to finish right near where he started. – “Gibbs will start this week's Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway from the ninth position. This marks the fourth time in a row this season and the first time ever at the St. Louis track that Gibbs will start in the Top 10.”
“The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has run better overall this season with eight top-10 finishes through 14 races, including three of the last four. In practice, Gibbs ranked among the Top 10 fastest drivers in all categories while ranking fifth or better in five, 20, and 25 consecutive lap averages. Based on his equipment and overall improved performances this year, Gibbs is a favored pick that will maintain a finish inside the Top 10.”
-In his Truck Series preview for the Toyota 200 at St. Louis, Justin Carter recommended Christian Eckes as a top play, and he placed second. – “Eckes has now opened up a pretty big lead in the title race, and he has a shot to grow that lead on Saturday at WWT Raceway as he starts on the outside pole.”
“After struggling to finish races at the site earlier in his career despite leading double-digit laps in his first two Gateway starts, Eckes has finally put some full races together at this track, posting consecutive runner-up finishes the past two years.”
