
John breaks down the third round of a 2025 dynasty fantasy football mock draft -- Superflex format. Who are the best sleepers and biggest avoids in Round 3 of Superflex dynasty rookie drafts?
The third round of rookie drafts in dynasty fantasy football leagues, despite generally being stripped of a lot of talent, still manages to have a few players who vastly outperform their ADP every season. Of course, in Superflex leagues, it's generally unlikely to get a good quarterback in these rounds.
But players of other positions, like wide receivers and running backs, get pushed down ever so slightly in SF leagues because QBs are so much more valuable. Because of that, it becomes just a tad easier to find underrated guys to draft in the third round.
But what are we here for if not to try to win our leagues? Every year, the consensus opinion makes a lot of mistakes. There's no reason to just bow to it, especially in the later rounds, where your picks have a lot less opportunity cost. Most players in this round don't turn into stars. Let's try to find some who might!
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Round 3
Pick 3.01 - Dylan Sampson, RB, Cleveland Browns
Generally, one way to find a sleeper is to look at each team's backfields and try to find players who are inefficient, or who were alarmingly inefficient in college. The current lead back for the Browns appears to be set to be Quinshon Judkins, but I wouldn't be so sure that Sampson won't get more volume than we think.
Judkins is a great athlete on paper, but his struggles against stiffer competition in college and his very poor efficiency metrics are red flags worth paying attention to. Notably, Judkins struggled to make defenders miss when he built up speed and wasn't very effective as a receiver.
The problem with Quinshon Judkins isn't his poor missed tackles forced rate.
It's that he's average or (MUCH) worse in nearly every efficiency metric when compared to his projected draft capital.
Of 52 R1-R3 RBs since 2018:
25th in MTF%
47th in YCO/A
37th in Explosive%
24th in… pic.twitter.com/JCXX1AYvTZ— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) April 12, 2025
"He's just a rookie, he was drafted earlier, let's see how things work out" is exactly the attitude that stops you from being early on good players, and thus securing good values in the draft. Sampson is highly talented and was the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. The NFL tends to value athletic traits very highly, though.
Since Judkins is just bigger, it makes sense that he was chosen earlier. And Sampson didn't test particularly impressively at his pro day, which could have been from the hamstring issue. Still, I like picking Sampson here, and I believe he'll be the Browns' RB1 at some point in the next season or two.
Pick 3.02 - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Cleveland Browns
Videos of Sanders dropping dimes in organized team activities (OTAs) are already abound. This might drive his price even higher, so don't be surprised if his value continues to rise. And he's probably going to end up as the starter. That alone makes him worth drafting here, if he can keep the job.
Shedeur Sanders put on an ABSOLUTE SHOW at Browns OTA’s today.
Sanders finished today going 7/9 (78%), 100+ yards, and 3 TD’s.
Sanders was reportedly the “most efficient” of any QB on the field during the team portions of practice, leading all QB’s in completion percentage, and… pic.twitter.com/986TOZRcEo
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) May 28, 2025
The problem with Sanders has never been accuracy, though. He's an accurate QB. The problem is that once the element of pressure is introduced, he starts taking a ton of unnecessary sacks. He doesn't have a sense of timing in the pocket and can't improvise to mitigate the effects of the pass rush.
Shedeur Sanders has a bad tendency to drift backwards in the pocket when he doesn't see things cleanly downfield or when he feels pressure. This puts a lot of strain on his offensive tackles and limits his ability to attack downfield. pic.twitter.com/60ZaMT6u6X
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 19, 2025
Please don't delude yourself into thinking that Sanders, without pads and with zero pressure, was actually after all blackballed by the NFL and is a misunderstood prospect on his way to fulfill his family expectations and become an elite QB prospect. That's unlikely to happen.
But in dynasty Superflex leagues, where every starting QB gets gobbled up quickly, Sanders is a solid value here.
Pick 3.03 - Jaylin Noel, WR, Houston Texans
I was all in on Noel in the predraft process. I even wrote long pieces about how he could be a league winner in redraft leagues. So, it was a shame when he went to the crowded Houston Texans WR room, which now also features Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Christian Kirk.
It's tough to project how much work Noel will get early on. It seems that Kirk will be the first to depart in the coming seasons, but Collins and Higgins are there to stay. Noel will likely be fighting with Higgins for snaps in 2WR sets for a few years to come.
Jaylin Noel has potential to be CJ Stroud favorite target @ the slot
This man has some jets & twitch about him 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/2BpYoXB8Up
— CJ Anderson SzN 💫 (@AyooTexanNation) April 28, 2025
Looking further into the future, though, Noel has the skills to become one of the NFL's best slot receivers. It just depends on the quarterback play, but he could be a beast. I love this pick.
Pick 3.04 - Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans
A receiver I'm much less excited about is Ayomanor. He struggled a lot with consistency in college. He has the athletic measurables to win as an outside receiver in the NFL, but the technique isn't there. He also has an ugly drop problem.
Elic Ayomanor is such a “Packers type” with his 8.7% drop rate in college. https://t.co/xSf0RNPQJ8
— Jacob (@NotionsOfJacob) April 13, 2025
Making this pick means you believe in quarterback Cam Ward, who's yet unproven, and that the Titans will have a good passing offense at some point in the next two seasons. I'm not fully convinced of that. That pass-catching room is crowded with a lot of other mediocre WR talent, too.
Pick 3.05 - Jaydon Blue, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Blue's overall rushing numbers and efficiency weren't super impressive. But as a receiver, he was one of the best backs in college football. And in a Cowboys running back room with very little talent, the path to significant volume early on for Blue is wide open.
Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and Phil Mafah are not talented enough to be lead backs. I know Mafah is a rookie, and that means we know absolutely nothing about him and just have to wait and see ... no, he's not good, I swear.
Jaydon Blue is sudden coming out his break on this angle route. With a catchable target, this is a huge play... pic.twitter.com/XuswbG5w3d
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 28, 2025
Blue will immediately be one of the league's better backs at running routes out of the backfield. His receiving numbers would have been even more impressive if Texas QB Quinn Ewers hadn't been horrible. Love this pick.
Pick 3.06 - Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets
I'm not sure how people still find a way to get excited about Jets pass-catchers. Sure, Garrett Wilson is a very good receiver, and deserves some hype. But the current quarterback situation is still without a long-term solution. QB Justin Fields is not the answer for the long haul.
Happy 21st birthday Mason Taylor
🔜 TE1 🔥✈#Jets pic.twitter.com/txB8jsVh9d
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) May 8, 2025
Fields has a nasty tendency to lock onto his first read and either take it, go with the checkdown, scramble, or run himself into a sack. Taylor has plenty of talent and should develop into a solid NFL TE. But until the Jets get a real QB, this pick is pretty lukewarm to me.
Pick 3.07 - Jalen Royals, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
I'm not sure what Royals' role will be with the Chiefs. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy will remain the team's top-2 WRs, and presumably, Royals will battle with Marquise Brown for the WR3 role, which isn't worth much on this team. Rice and Worthy aren't going anywhere anytime soon, either.
Jalen Royals highlights 👑 pic.twitter.com/MvIUhNPn35
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) May 7, 2025
I don't know what's pumped Royals' value here. Rice has played at a very high level, Worthy has shown flashes, and both were drafted with much better draft capital. The maybe WR3 for a team in a few years isn't a pick I'd like to make.
Pick 3.08 - Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are in salary-cap hell, still, and it might take them a year or two to get out of it. Neal was also much worse against quality competition in college football, racking up most of his numbers against inferior teams and faltering against superior defenses.
I'm doing some digging into RB splits vs. Power-4 and non-P4 defense.
I only included splits for RBs who had 100+ rush attempts vs. both. Here's what I found:
Crushed Power-4 competition:
🔸Cam Skattebo
🔸Damien Martinez
🔸RJ Harvey
🔸Corey Kiner (reminder that he was an LSU… pic.twitter.com/InkSTzDzie— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 16, 2025
The archetype of player who performs much better against bad teams and sucks against teams that are good is prevalent in the NFL, too. Neal also doesn't have elite athleticism to lean on and isn't overly elusive. I don't think he even beats out a healthy Kendre Miller for the RB2 role. I'm fading Neal.
Pick 3.09 - Elijah Arroyo, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Another team not to get excited about at all for fantasy football is the Seattle Seahawks, who selected Arroyo as the eventual successor to Noah Fant. Fant is still there, though, and the Seahawks have a terrible QB behind a horrible offensive line that general manager John Schneider loves to never fix.
#Seahawks QB Sam Darnold was sacked 48 times last year despite having a top 15 offensive line and top 3 play caller. Darnold needs to get rid of the ball for the Seahawks to win 8 games. pic.twitter.com/gVxSEzJg6M
— Mo the Podcaster (@Mo12thMan) April 8, 2025
Seattle's offense has the advantage of having Klint Kubiak as its offensive coordinator, but the QB situation could be a disaster over the next few seasons, and Kubiak prefers a very run-heavy offense anyway. I'm staying away from Arroyo.
Pick 3.10 - Terrance Ferguson, TE, Los Angeles Rams
If Ferguson can eventually do a solid job filling in Rams TE Tyler Higbee's old role, he could be worth this pick. Higbee is 32 years old and still appears to have some juice, but he's due for a big age-related drop-off in production anytime now. Ferguson was the most athletic TE in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Do NOT sleep on Terrance Ferguson
➡️Seamless fit in McVay’s offense
➡️9.32 RAS (2nd amongst Power 5)
➡️77.0 receiving grade in ‘24
➡️Higbee’s 32, coming off an ACL injury, and in a contract yearPerfect dynasty stash with real 2025 redraft upside. McVay’s system has fed TEs… pic.twitter.com/U4hNnzZTj3
— Kingdom Football (@Kingdom_FB) May 17, 2025
There are some clear weaknesses to his game, but I don't believe he can't overcome them. I just don't know how much of a role he'll have as a receiver. And quarterback Matthew Stafford is quickly approaching his retirement age. Perhaps head coach Sean McVay will jump ship with him.
Pick 3.11 - Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos
The Broncos seem to be content with WR Marvin Mims Jr. as their field-stretcher and Courtland Sutton as a perimeter possession outside receiver. That's pretty much Bryant's game, though. Perhaps Broncos head coach Sean Payton plans to have his pass-catchers win with size. Except for Evan Engram, who's an undersized TE.
PAT BRYANT SCORES THE GAME-WINNING TD ON 4TH DOWN! 😱@IlliniFootball pic.twitter.com/ndso5u3X8B
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) November 23, 2024
An injury to Sutton gives Bryant a ton of contingent upside, though. He's worth taking a shot on here for the chance he could become the team's clear WR2. Always a good idea to lean into solid athletes on good teams in the later rounds of rookie drafts.
Pick 3.12 - DJ Giddens, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Colts lead back Jonathan Taylor isn't quite old yet. There's a chance he ends up leaving for another team, though, as his contract is pretty hefty. The team could end up letting him go, as he's struggled to stay healthy in his career, especially in recent seasons.
DJ Giddens is a home-run hitter.
Absolute steal for the Colts. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Zhxoa2vaPA
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) April 26, 2025
Giddens has a ton of contingent upside. The Colts tend to only use one back at a time, so if Taylor gets hurt, he could immediately get a lot of volume and become a priority starter. He's an excellent athlete and talented back who showed nice elusiveness in his final season at Kansas State. He should be a priority pick if you have Taylor, and a nice bench stash with plenty of upside if not.
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