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Corbin's top fantasy football running back bust candidates. His potential early-round avoids and landmines for RBs in 2026, including Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and more.
Everyone loves breakouts and sleepers. However, the players to avoid might be just as important as the breakouts and sleepers. We've discussed the running back dead zone, which has evolved over the years. When we're looking at potential busts or underperformers, we want to consider those players without the top 100 picks at running back.
Typically, the market pushes up running backs with projected volume or an expected lack of competition. However, drafters weren't considering how their usage might evolve or the potential range of outcomes. That's why we should build redraft teams like dynasty rosters, where we project what could happen based on the data and situation, rather than paying for what happened in the previous year.
We'll cover five running backs who could be potential landmines based on their price and underlying metrics. Sure, volume can be king at the position, but what happens if it disappears? We'll lay out the pros and cons of fading these five running backs heading into 2026.
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Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers
FFPC ADP: 40.1, RB18
Jacobs has been dealing with a groin injury early in training camp, which adds to the risk, especially after being arrested on several preliminary charges. The groin injury has been reported over the past few weeks, so there will be additional risk as we head closer to September.
If healthy, Jacobs could smash his draft cost after producing as the RB10 (2025) and RB6 (2024). He handled over 83% of the team's rushes inside the five-yard line. However, Jacobs had a below-average explosive rush rate (4.3%) and a declining success rate (49.1%).
The visual below shows the offensive line data sorted by the highest pressure rate.
The Packers had a below-average offensive line, ranking 24th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and allowing the third-highest pressure rate (43.6%). That put the Packers behind the Browns (44.8%) and Patriots (43.9%) in pressure rate allowed last season.
Most of their 2026 NFL Draft picks were spent on defense, with one Day 3 interior offensive lineman in Jager Burton as a depth piece. Burton played five seasons at Kentucky, finishing his collegiate career strong as a run and pass-blocker, but better known for the latter.
Summary
Emanuel Wilson had the second-most carries on the Packers last season and is now with the Seahawks. MarShawn Lloyd has been healthy throughout training camp, with Chris Brooks as the RB3 on the roster. Lloyd has been one of my late-round running back sleepers. That said, the Packers lack backfield depth, so they are relying on Jacobs to be healthy.
If the draft price dips significantly with the groin injury, we could consider a discount. Jacobs might be a dead zone back, though we've seen him score 12 or more touchdowns in four of his seven NFL seasons, so it's a high-risk, high-reward pick.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Saints
FFPC ADP: 44.6, RB19
The Saints invested heavily in Etienne, with a four-year, $48 million deal in May. We had Etienne as a fade last season, then he shoved it in our face. Etienne ranked as the RB14 in PPR/G, with the second-most opportunities (312) of his career.
He had a 60% snap share, 53% rush rate, and a 10% target share. Bhayshul Tuten handled 19% of the rush attempts, with only one game of 10 or more rush attempts in Week 11. That was the week when the Jaguars crushed the Chargers 35-6, so they relied heavily on a positive game script, with 47 team rushing attempts.
Etienne was efficient with 1.2 fantasy points over expected (No. 18) while ranking 17th in expected fantasy points. As we've mentioned in previous running back articles, the main concerns involve his rushing advanced metrics. Etienne consistently struggles to break off explosive runs, with 3.5% last season. Unlike other rushers that have lower explosive rush percentages, Etienne doesn't have a high rushing success rate.
The visual below shows the Jaguars' advanced rushing metrics in 2024 and 2025.
Furthermore, Etienne struggles to force missed tackles (13%), with 37.5% (2025) and 26.3% (2024) of the team's rush attempts inside the five-yard line. However, Etienne had to share with Trevor Lawrence, who garnered 31.3% of the team's rush attempts inside the five last year. The Jaguars traded away Tank Bigsby early last season, who handled 50% of the team's attempts inside the five.
The Saints and Alvin Kamara worked on revising his contract this season after he dealt with an MCL sprain and ankle injury late last season. He ranked 25th in EP/G after being top 10 for seven straight seasons. Interestingly, Kamara had a 10% target share (No. 17), the lowest of his career after hitting 22% (No. 1) in 2024.
The visual below shows the rushing leaders for the Saints in Weeks 13-18 without Kamara.
When Kamara was healthy, the Saints had Spencer Rattler take on 16% of the rushes, with Tyler Shough at 12%. After Kamara's injury, Shough had a 19% rush share while cycling through Devin Neal and Audric Estime. Neal handled 48% of the team's rushes, including two games as an RB2 before he suffered a hamstring injury.
Estime had two top-14 performances in Weeks 17-18, including five receptions in Week 18. Though Kamara's target share dipped in Weeks 1-12, his running back targets should return, but not at the elite level in his prime. Etienne has been garnering a 10-12% target share over the past three seasons, so maybe he and Kamara eat into each other's receiving workload.
Summary
With Shough as the starting quarterback, the running back targets likely won't be at elite levels like a 20% target share because he is a mobile quarterback. Kamara is one season away from handling 68.8% of the team's rushes inside the five-yard line, though Shough also plays a role there. Again, those factors impact Etienne's role this season.
The Jaguars ranked 19th in receiving EP/G to running backs, with the Saints at No. 24 last season. The Saints were second in receiving EP/G to running backs with Kamara healthy and Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator in 2024. Meanwhile, the Jaguars ranked 26th in receiving EP/G for running backs.
Etienne needs high volume to succeed in a potentially downgraded offense. For context, the Saints ranked 31st in EPA per rush and 27th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were 15th in adjusted yards before contact and 16th in EPA per rush last season.
If I needed a running back in this range, I prefer D'Andre Swift, Tuten, Quinshon Judkins, and Bucky Irving ahead of Etienne. After writing this section, Kamara is expected to miss a month due to a sprained MCL, potentially making Etienne's stock rise.
Tony Pollard, RB, Titans
FFPC ADP: 77, RB30
Pollard hasn't burned fantasy managers, but he relies on volume with efficiency on the decline. Pollard ranked 26th in EP/G with 0.3 FPOE/G (No. 48). That's slightly better efficiency compared to 2024 (No. 133), yet a dip in volume, given his 13.9 EP/G (No. 17).
Pollard finished with a 62% snap share, 64% of the rush attempts, and an 8% target share. Meanwhile, Tyjae Spears played 46% of the snaps, with a 25% rush share and a 12% target share. The only game Spears handled 10 or more rush attempts last season was Week 16, when the Titans blew out the Chiefs 26-9.
The visual below shows the rushing advanced stats for the Titans over the past two seasons.
Pollard saw 50% of the team's rush attempts inside the five-yard line while creating over two yards before and after contact last season. However, Pollard continues to struggle to force missed tackles (11%). Pollard's expected fantasy points fell because his 8% target share dropped by four points last season.
Brian Daboll used multiple running backs as the Giants head coach over the past two seasons without Saquon Barkley. For context, Cam Skattebo played on 54% of the team's snaps with a 43% rush share and a 13% target rate. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a 55% snap share, with 40% of the team's rush attempts and an 11% target share, similar to his usage in 2024.
Summary
It hurts Pollard if Daboll deploys Pollard and Spears in a more balanced timeshare. That's notable because Pollard needs the volume to thrive as an RB3 with RB2 upside. Be cautious when investing in a running back for projected volume like Pollard.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Broncos
FFPC ADP: 98.5, RB36
Dobbins closed the season injured with a foot injury. He had six games as an RB2 (60%), while handling 51% of the snaps, 57% of the team's rush attempts, and a 4% target share. Injuries have been a consistent part of his career. RJ Harvey played on 29% of the team's snaps with a 19% rush share and a 9% target share in Weeks 1-10, as seen below.
From Week 11 onward, without Dobbins, Harvey had a 61% snap share, 52% of the rush attempts, and an 11% target share. The Broncos consistently mixed in more than two running backs under Sean Payton, so they'll share the touches and snaps. That will likely continue this season with the addition of rookie RB Jonah Coleman, who is one of my breakout candidates.
Dobbins handled 63.6% of the team's rush attempts inside the five-yard line with a team-high explosive rush rate (7.8%). He forced a missed tackle on 20% of his rush attempts, slightly higher than Harvey's (16%). Besides being an efficient rusher, Dobbins often generated plenty of yardage before contact (2.78), ranking 11th in 2025.
Furthermore, the Broncos ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt while ranking 13th in pressure rate allowed. That suggests the Broncos have a strong offensive line, which boosts the value of the Broncos' running backs.
Summary
In training camp, there was a report that Dobbins left practice with an undisclosed injury, which was later reported as a soft-tissue issue. If Dobbins is already dealing with an injury, it further raises his already high injury risk heading into the season. Though Dobbins has an RB3 price, he remains a high-risk, low-to-medium reward option at the position.
Rachaad White, RB, Commanders
FFPC ADP: 99.2, RB37
White averaged 9.0 EP/G (No. 42) last season while being inefficient with -0.6 FPOE/G (No. 118). He handled 40% of the team's rushes inside the five-yard line, second behind Sean Tucker (55%). Bucky Irving had 0% of the team's carries inside the five last season.
White's rushing advanced metrics were better than expected, with a 17% missed tackle rate, 2.37 yards before contact, and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt last season. He had a similar 53.8% success rate while having a low explosive run percentage (3%). However, White's high success rate may be what coaches want in real life.
Mobile quarterbacks tend to pass less to their running backs, mainly because they're rushing more and taking away potential opportunities. Last season, the Commanders ranked last (4.4) and 25th (6.8) in 2024 in receiving expected points to running backs. That indicates Jayden Daniels likely won't often throw to White.
White had a 15% target rate (No. 64) and produced 0.78 yards per route run (No. 67) among 89 running backs with 25 routes run last season. That's a decline from White's target rate (21%) and 1.44 yards per route run (No. 27) from 2024. Maybe White's receiving efficiency bounces back, or it remains unappetizing with fewer opportunities.
Summary
It was reported on August 19 that White is dealing with a hamstring injury, so this will further add to the bust potential. Though the Commanders have a new offensive coordinator in David Blough, there's a good chance they continue to mix in multiple running backs. Dan Quinn has talked about continuing to use multiple backs.
After Austin Ekeler suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in Week 2, the backfield was a mix of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and Jeremy McNichols. If they consistently mix in two running backs while Daniels takes over 25% of the team's rush attempts, they'll need to be efficient rushers or rely on touchdowns.
It might be hard to predict when to start White in a frustrating backfield committee that lacks receiving opportunities, further lowering the floor and ceiling outcomes.
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