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With fantasy football season fast approaching, it's time for an early look at potential overvalued players in the early rounds of 2024 drafts. Whiffing on picks in the first three or four rounds can be devastating in your search for a fantasy football championship, so be sure to proceed with caution early on draft day.
Some players remain highly drafted fantasy assets on name recognition or last year's results despite offseason developments and new team situations that should drop them lower in average draft position. In this article, we'll cover three potential running backs or wide receivers that fit that bill.
Let's dive into and analyze three early-round players you must avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
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Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
FFPC ADP: 16.9
Barkley signed a favorable contract to join the Eagles this offseason and is the clear RB1 in a good offense, but his price in early fantasy drafts is too high given his production of late. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft had a monster rookie campaign with over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns on 352 total touches, but he's failed to come close to that production in four of the five seasons that followed.
After averaging 5.0 yards per carry in 2018, he has failed to reach 4.5 yards per carry in a single season. He missed 22 games from 2019 to 2021 before a bounceback 2022 campaign that saw him rack up more than 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2023, he once again battled injuries and was limited to 962 rushing yards, 280 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in 14 games. His 3.9 yards per carry ranked 18th among running backs with at least 200 attempts.
Sure, his offensive line and lack of passing game did him no favors, but he ranked outside the top 40 qualified running backs in yards per touch (4.3), juke rate (14.6%), and yards created per touch (2.94). Overall, he was productive for fantasy, but he relied heavily on volume and doesn't look like the explosive ball-carrier he was early in his career.
Now, he's set to join an offense featuring Jalen Hurts, who has 38 rushing attempts inside the five-yard-line since the 2022 season began. Not only will Barkley have tremendous competition for touches near the end zone, but he'll also become less involved in the passing attack.
🗣️BACK IN PA! Welcome to the City of Brotherly Love, @saquon.@Toyota | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/mB1f7flTgG
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) March 13, 2024
New York consistently had poor wide receiver groups during his tenure, while the Eagles have arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL -- A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Tight end Dallas Goedert is no scrub, either. On top of that, mobile quarterbacks like Hurts often choose to scramble for short gains rather than dumping the ball down to running backs.
As last year's RB1 in Philly, D'Andre Swift registered a 10% target share. In Swift's final two seasons with the Detroit Lions, he commanded a 15.1% (2022) and 18.4% target share (2021). Swift is not the same caliber of overall running back Barkley is, but he's a great receiver who fell victim to his offensive environment in that part of the game. Barkley is likely to follow suit in 2024.
Ultimately, Barkley is not worth the risk here due to his injury history, lack of goal-line opportunities, and projected loss in targets.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
FFPC ADP: 18.3
Appropriately, Williams' 2024 fantasy football stock has taken a hit since the Los Angeles Rams pulled the trigger on Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round of last month's draft. Has he dropped enough? That's up for debate, but the answer is likely -- no.
There's no way to discount or discredit what Williams did after being undrafted in most 2023 fantasy drafts. He led the NFL in rushing yards per game (95.3) and trailed only Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points per game in standard, half-PPR, and PPR scoring. That said, the Rams were clearly not satisfied with moving forward with Williams in a workhorse role.
In a media availability this offseason, general manager Les Snead said that the decision to draft Corum was related to keeping Williams healthy. "It's a tough league. It's a 17-game season plus playoffs, so we always felt like we needed to have as many quality runners as possible... so we don't just totally run down Kyren," Snead said. "And we have one or two or even three guys that can contribute... keep everyone fresh." Given the hasty fall of former Rams star Todd Gurley III due to knee issues and Cam Akers' Achilles tear that zapped him of his explosiveness, the organization and offense look to be headed toward a committee approach in the backfield.
Williams should remain the lead back assuming he works through his foot injury that is keeping him out of organized team activities, but his league-leading 83.9% snap share and fourth-ranked 78.4% opportunity share are both going to take significant hits. It's also worth noting he graded out as one of the worst pass-protecting running backs in the NFL last year, so Corum could get more passing-down snaps than some expect.
Rams RB Kyren Williams will miss the team's offseason program due to a “foot issue,” coach Sean McVay said Tuesday.
Story via @sarahbarshop:https://t.co/M6PzdJprul
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 21, 2024
All that said, why is he going ahead of potential workhorses in quality offenses like Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs? This is a mistake to fade.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
FFPC ADP: 32.0
Pittman is a stud wide receiver who just signed a $70 million contract to remain with the Colts for at least another three seasons. That's not the debate. However, he could see his target share and overall volume take a hit in 2024.
He was a volume monster in 2023 with Gardner Minshew II running the show for most of the season, earning a career-high 156 targets and a whopping 30.5% target share. However, among PlayerProfiler-qualified wide receivers, he ranked 86th in average target distance (7.9), 25th in air yards (1,232), 45th in deep targets (14), 23rd in yards per route run (2.08), and 63rd in yards per target (7.4). The 26-year-old finished last season as the WR14 in fantasy points per game, but volume drove the majority of his production.
With Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor back and healthy this season, the team's passing volume is likely to shrink. Richardson and Taylor are elite rushers at their respective positions, and both will be utilized heavily in the red zone -- signaling a potential red zone target regression for Pittman, who drew 19 red zone targets last season (ninth-most). And despite the heavy red zone usage, he totaled just four touchdowns.
Richardson is an exciting prospect with all the talent you could ever ask for in a young quarterback, but there's a real chance Minshew was a better pure facilitator and supporter of fantasy wide receiver production. On top of that, second-year wideout Josh Downs is poised to take the next step, and the team added Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Sure, Mitchell hasn't played in an NFL game and we can't know for sure whether he'll pan out, but he will be given the opportunity to make an impact right away, and there's plenty of margin for error in his chances to surpass what Alec Pierce has provided over the last two years.
only 2 WRs at the combine since 2015 to:
…run 4.35 or less in the 40
…measure at least 6’2” tall
…at a weight of at least 205DK Metcalf
Adonai Mitchellpic.twitter.com/gL9Z6xJMb1— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 2, 2024
In summary, Pittman is set to:
- See reduced overall volume
- Play with a raw dual-threat quarterback and elite between-the-tackles running back
- Face more target competition than ever before
The Colts have built a great foundation on offense, but the skill position players face more fantasy football uncertainty than previous years moving forward. In Pittman's range of fantasy drafts, players such as Jalen Hurts and Brandon Aiyuk have clearer paths to upside. Jaylen Waddle and Stefon Diggs, who go almost a full round later, are also better picks at cost.
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