Fantasy Football ADP Values on CBS - Undervalued, Overvalued Draft Picks

September 2, 2024

Martin analyzes undervalued CBS fantasy football ADPs and sleepers, plus overvalued fantasy football picks for CBS drafts. Who are bargains in 2024 drafts?

With the first week of the preseason wrapped up, it's time to turn our attention to preparing for redraft leagues. Most experts recommend waiting until just before the season starts to draft, allowing you to avoid missing out on significant preseason injuries and to stay updated on crucial training camp developments that can impact ADP. However, it's never too early to review ADP from your preferred draft sites.

Below, we'll examine CBS's ADP and identify some players who are either overvalued or undervalued by comparing it to Rotoballer’s half-PPR rankings for 2024. Overall, CBS ADP shows that running backs remain highly valued, while several wide receiver bargains are available. The rankings for quarterbacks and tight ends are more varied, but generally, they tend to be over-drafted compared to Rotoballer’s projections.

If you're drafting on CBS, consider waiting on wide receivers to get the best value, as other positions are being drafted too high. We can uncover value at every position in a CBS draft by carefully analyzing the ADP. Here are six overvalued and undervalued players in the CBS ADP to avoid or target in your 2024 drafts.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals

• CBS ADP: 52
• Rotoballer Rank: 76
• Difference: 24

Joe Burrow is widely regarded as one of the most likable players in the NFL, making it challenging to label him overvalued. However, a 24-spot difference between his CBS ADP and Rotoballer ranking highlights some concerns. CBS drafts have Burrow going early in the fifth round, which seems steep for a pocket passer recovering from season-ending wrist surgery.

Additionally, Burrow has lost key targets from last season, including Tyler Boydand Joe Mixon. Although Tee Higgins remains, he is reportedly unhappy due to a lack of a long-term contract. While Ja'Marr Chase remains a reliable weapon, there are uncertainties surrounding Burrow's supporting cast.

Another significant change for Burrow this season is the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who left to become the Titans' head coach. The Bengals promoted from within, hiring Dan Pitcher as the new offensive coordinator.

Pitcher has been with the Bengals since 2016 and has worked with Burrow since his rookie year. However, this is Burrow's first experience with a new offensive coordinator in the NFL, which could lead to some initial adjustments.

Burrow's lack of elite mobility compared to other top fantasy quarterbacks makes him a riskier pick at his current ADP. If you decide to draft him, it might be wise to have a backup plan in case of a slow start coming back from the injury.

Consider selecting another quarterback earlier than usual in a 1QB league to ensure you have solid insurance. Burrow is picked as the QB7, often ahead of quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, which may be too high given the uncertainties.

Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers

• CBS ADP: 64
• Rotoballer Rank: 81
• Difference: 17

Jordan Love surpassed expectations in his first season as the Packers starting quarterback, finishing as the QB5 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns.

Despite a solid performance, his 7.2 yards per attempt (YPA), ranked 13th, typically suggests fewer than 32 touchdown passes. While his impressive 5.8% touchdown rate was among the league's best, maintaining such a high rate could be challenging, particularly given his lower overall efficiency.

TD rate in goal-to-go situations:

95% - GB
94%
93%
92%
91%
90%
89%
88%
87%
86%
85%
84%
83% - SF, ARI, NE, CLE, WAS
82% - BUF, CHI
81% - CIN
80%
79% - LA
78% - BAL
77% - DET
76%
75%
74% - KC
73%
72% - NO, HOU, TB
71% - PHI, MIA
70%
69% - JAX
68%
67% - PIT, SEA
66%
65% - IND, LV,…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 1, 2024

Love may also face regression in the red zone. Last season, he benefited from the second-most red-zone attempts (100), but the addition of Josh Jacobs—a big back—could affect this.

Jacobs averaged 11 rushing touchdowns per season from 2020 to 2022, and the Packers' 76.2% air touchdown rate might drop as a result. Furthermore, the Packers are unlikely to sustain their record-high 95% touchdown rate on goal-to-go possessions.

Given Love's limited sample size and valuable quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams, who are available later in drafts, he may be drafted too high.

Other Notable Overvalued QBs (ADP/rank difference): Dak Prescott (9), Jalen Hurts (12), Patrick Mahomes II (15)

Zamir White - Los Vegas Raiders

• CBS ADP: 51
• Rotoballer Rank: 75
• Difference: 24

There’s a notable discrepancy in Zamir White's draft value—currently, the RB18 in PPR leagues at CBS. Once the draft hits the fifth round, the running back pool often becomes a "pick your poison" scenario, but White’s ADP is notably ahead of players such as James Conner, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris.

White appears to fall into the "running back dead zone," with his high ADP driven more by his availability than his overall value. Entering his third NFL season, White has been a seasoned backup rather than a breakout star.

The "backup effect" describes how running backs who perform well in reserve roles often struggle to maintain the same production level when starting. Despite his efficiency and productivity as an RB2, White may not perform as well with increased touches.

Although White is the Raiders' starter, competition from players like Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube could impact his rushing and pass-catching opportunities. The Raiders' backfield, which was 16th in expected PPR points per game last season, may not provide ideal conditions for White to thrive.

With the team adding tight end Brock Bowers and featuring Davante Adams, their focus might shift toward the passing game this year. Given these factors, it’s difficult to justify drafting White over similarly valued backs like Montgomery and Conner, who offer more significant scoring potential in more favorable offensive situations.

Jonathon Brooks - Carolina Panthers

• CBS ADP: 78
• Rotoballer Rank: 99
• Difference: 21

In an ideal scenario, Jonathon Brooks' talent would justify his CBS ADP, but he faces substantial hurdles. Brooks, a Panthers running back, tore his ACL at the University of Texas last November and has not yet been fully cleared for football activities. Consequently, the Panthers have placed him on the non-football injury list, as the injury occurred before he entered the NFL.

Panthers placed second-round pick Jonathon Brooks on the active/non-football injury list. Brooks can be activated any time, but his absence for the start of camp was expected as he recovers from the torn ACL he suffered last November. pic.twitter.com/ii7V9tvoH3

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 19, 2024

Although Brooks has the potential to eventually surpass Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders on the Panthers' depth chart, his current ACL injury means he remains sidelined. Until Brooks returns, Hubbard and Sanders will handle the bulk of the snaps.

Hubbard emerged as the feature back in 2023, playing at least 64% of the team's offensive snaps in his last seven games and finishing no worse than RB28, including two top-12 weeks. With the 8th-largest cap hit on the Panthers' roster, Sanders will receive ample opportunities to justify his salary.

Brooks also faces the challenge of returning to a Panthers offense projected to be among the worst in terms of implied points per game for 2024, along with a below-average offensive line. While his ADP might be reasonable if you have an IR spot to stash him at the start of the season, he is being drafted too high, considering his injury status, competition for touches, and the offensive environment.

Other Notable Overvalued RBs (ADP/rank difference): Kenneth Walker III(10); Kyren Williams (10); Isiah Pacheco (11); Josh Jacobs (10); D'Andre Swift (14); Zack Moss (17); James Cook (24);  Alvin Kamara (23)

Ladd McConkey - Los Vegas Chargers

• CBS ADP: 91
• Rotoballer Rank: 95
• Difference: 4

Ladd McConkey has garnered significant hype, causing his ADP to climb, but his fantasy football value might be overinflated. Drafted in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Chargers, McConkey is expected to become a key offensive contributor, filling a reliable possession receiver role following the departure of several veterans.

However, McConkey’s fantasy potential will be challenged by the Chargers’ offensive scheme, which, under coach Harbaugh, emphasizes the running game over the passing game. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman, known for favoring a run-heavy approach, is expected to keep the Chargers' passing attack in the league's lower tier. During his time in San Francisco, Roman’s offenses never ranked higher than 27th in pass attempts or pass rate.

Additionally, McConkey's college production at Georgia was modest, as he never led the team in catches or receiving yards. His injury history is also a concern; he struggled with back issues during his senior year, resulting in a limited season of nine games with 30 catches for 478 yards and two touchdowns.

Recent reports from Chargers practice indicate he was "limping" after a catch and missed a practice session on August 1. Head coach Jim Harbaugh mentioned McConkey was "working through something." Considering the new coaching staff, injury concerns, and rising ADP, McConkey is a reach at cost on CBS.

Other Notable Overvalued WRs (ADP/rank difference): Khalil Shakir (1), Xavier Worthy (5)

Dalton Kincaid - Buffalo Bills

• CBS ADP: 55
• Rotoballer Rank: 72
• Difference: 17

Dalton Kincaid is a popular breakout candidate for the 2024 season, but his current ADP might be overly optimistic, placing him close to his ceiling. Despite the Bills losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, they didn’t acquire a high-caliber wide receiver to replace them, which might seem like an opportunity for Kincaid.

However, the presence of Dawson Knox poses a significant challenge, as Knox consistently out-snapped Kincaid when both were healthy last year. In the 11 games they both played, Knox had more snaps in seven of them. Although Kincaid saw increased usage during Knox’s absences, Knox is healthy heading into this season, potentially limiting Kincaid's opportunities.

Additionally, Buffalo’s shift away from two-tight-end sets under interim Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, now the full-time OC, poses another issue. After Brady’s appointment, the team adopted a more balanced approach between Kincaid and Knox, with Kincaid averaging only 5.7 fantasy points per game post-Week 13.

Brady also significantly increased the team’s rushing attempts, from 25.4 per game under Ken Dorsey to 36.9, which reduced Kincaid’s targets. Consequently, Kincaid managed only one top-five finish at his position from Week 11 onward.

Dalton Kincaid
[in games with Dawson Knox active]

+59.8% route share (would rank TE25)
+13.3% target share (TE20)
+32.7 receiving YPG (TE19)

+1.48 YPRR (TE18)
+0.057 1D/RR (TE33)

+6.8 FPG (TE26)
+7.3 XFP/G (TE25)

I'd be really into it if he were priced like Luke Musgrave. pic.twitter.com/dGsj42rFop

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) August 6, 2024

Kincaid’s minimal red zone usage in 2023 is another red flag. Of his 73 receptions, only five were in the red zone, and none resulted in a touchdown. Instead, Josh Allen favored red zone rushing attempts, with 21 attempts and 12 touchdowns.

Fellow tight end Knox also managed two red zone scores on just eight targets. While Kincaid could still have a breakout season, the current draft price requires a strong belief in his upside to justify the investment.

Other Notable Overvalued TEs (ADP/rank difference):  Mark Andrews (10), Travis Kelce (11), Evan Engram (12), Brock Bowers (17)

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players

Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals

• CBS ADP: 82
• Rotoballer Rank: 71
• Difference: 11

Labeling the overall QB7 as a sleeper might seem excessive, but Kyler Murray is flying under the radar this season. Currently drafted as the QB10 on CBS, behind Dak Prescott and Jordan Love, Murray has consistently delivered strong fantasy performances throughout his career, averaging 20.9 points per game since 2019. Over his first four seasons, he finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7.

Kyler Murray is going to be SLEPT ON in fantasy football this SZN‼️💤

Why?
- Tore his ACL in 2022 🏥
- People have recency bias
- The Cardinals offense has been nothing to get excited about recently
- Lots of other very talented QBs in the league (especially in fantasy)

But… pic.twitter.com/rC9WRbqlaN

— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) May 19, 2024

Entering the 2024 season more than a year removed from the torn ACL that cut short his 2022 season and delayed his 2023 debut until Week 10, Murray has shown promising signs of recovery. He demonstrated mobility in his first two games back with notable rushing performances of 33 and 51 yards.

These rushing totals suggest his agility is intact, allowing him to contribute significantly with his legs. Despite playing only eight games last season, Murray ranked in the Top 10 for both rushing yards per game and red zone carries, proving he remains an elite dual-threat quarterback.

With the Cardinals improving their receiving corps by selecting Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 pick in the NFL Draft and the emergence of tight end Trey McBride as a reliable pass catcher, Murray has the support he needs to excel.

In 56 of the 62 games he's played (excluding the ACL injury game and those he left early), he scored at least 13 points in a 4-point passing touchdown format. His rushing ability ensures a strong performance floor.

As you draft, consider targeting Kyler Murray with a later pick while prioritizing wide receivers and running backs in the early rounds. His dual-threat capability and consistent floor make him a valuable asset, especially if you first secure depth at other key positions.

Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears

• CBS ADP: 113
• Rotoballer Rank: 7103
• Difference: 10

Caleb Williams is an extraordinary passer with a natural ability to make any throw with ease and confidence. When provided with solid protection, he thrives in the pocket and excels at keeping plays alive while maintaining his focus downfield. This rookie quarterback has a lot to offer from the outset.

Williams joins a significantly upgraded receiving corps with the Chicago Bears, who have bolstered their lineup with veteran Keenan Allen via trade and the ninth overall pick, Rome Odunze, from the draft. These additions will complement D.J. Moore, who had a standout season last year, setting career highs in yards per game, catch rate, touchdowns, and receiving success rate.

Caleb Williams played 17 snaps and looked like the real deal.

4/7 passing 95 yards
1 rush for 13 yards

He has the weapons to make an immediate impact in fantasy.

He threw on the run with accuracy and velocity, had zip
pic.twitter.com/uVlNmG7Iuc

— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) August 12, 2024

Although Williams may not be as dynamic a rusher as Justin Fields, he has demonstrated his ability to make impactful plays on the ground, scoring 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons at USC.

His impressive arm talent, creativity, and production—highlighted by a career-best 9.4 yards per attempt and 41 total touchdowns (30 passing, 11 rushing) with just five interceptions last year—make him a strong fantasy asset. Given his skill set and favorable situation, Williams is well-positioned to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in his rookie season.

Other Notable Undervalued QBs (ADP/rank difference): Jayden Daniels (5), Trevor Lawrence (16), Will Levis (61)

Rhamondre Stevenson - New England Patriots

• CBS ADP: 72
• Rotoballer Rank: 62
• Difference: 10

In 2022, Stevenson had a remarkable season, finishing as the RB7 in PPR formats with an average of 14.7 fantasy points per game. However, his performance last year was inconsistent, as he managed only 619 rushing yards and ended up as the RB35 in PPR formats.

Fantasy managers should anticipate a bounce-back year from Stevenson. Despite his struggles, he showed elite potential before a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 13. Over his final three healthy games, he averaged 91 rushing yards and 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, indicating he could return to form with a healthier season and a new offensive scheme in 2024.

Several factors contribute to optimism about 2024. The Patriots are implementing a new offensive scheme that could boost Stevenson’s fantasy production. Additionally, Stevenson has signed a new contract, ranking seventh in total guaranteed money among running backs, with the six ahead of him drafted significantly earlier. The Patriots are investing in Stevenson to be their feature back.

With Ezekiel Elliott's departure and downgrade Antonio Gibson's arrival in an offense that lacks standout playmakers, Stevenson could seize the opportunity to rebound and fulfill the expectations many had for him in 2023.

The good news is that Stevenson is now available at the end of the sixth round rather than requiring a third-round pick. This lower draft cost offers the potential for significant value, allowing him to exceed his current low-end RB2/high-end RB3 status.

Other Notable Undervalued RBs (ADP/rank difference): Brian Robinson Jr. (3), MarShawn Lloyd (3), Jaylen Warren (12), Chuba Hubbard (14), Jaleel McLaughlin (15), Khalil Herbert (35)

Malik Nabers - New York Giants

• CBS ADP: 60
• Rotoballer Rank: 42
• Difference: 18

Malik Nabers is an elite wide receiver prospect with the potential to become one of the top players at his position. The New York Giants selected him with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, reflecting his exceptional talent.

At LSU, Nabers excelled, finishing second in the NCAA in receiving yards with 1,569 and third in receiving touchdowns with 17. He led the NCAA in 20+ and 30+ yard receptions and was one of only four Power 5 WRs to force at least 30 missed tackles in 2023.

Malik Nabers

Drafted 6th overall to NYG.

In the last ten years, seven WRs have been drafted Top 6 and played 12+ games.

Those WRs averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game.

14.4 FPPG ranked Top 10 at the position in 2023.

Current ADP of WR21 🤔

pic.twitter.com/b9CdxIuBqh

— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) July 26, 2024

Concerns about Nabers primarily revolve around quarterback Daniel Jones's performance. The Giants are entering a pivotal year for Jones, who needs to demonstrate he can deliver consistent, strong performances. If Jones plays at least at a league-average level, Nabers is well-positioned to impact fantasy football significantly.

Nabers is stepping into a situation where he could command a target share close to 30%, a figure typically associated with top-tier prospects. With the Giants’ highest returning target share being Wan'Dale Robinson’s 18.6% and Robinson primarily operating from the slot, Nabers can see substantial volume and contribute significantly.

Drafting Nabers at WR29 represents a strong value pick, given his potential to finish as a top-15 receiver. His success will depend on Jones's performance, but Nabers' upside makes him a compelling choice for those willing to take a chance.

Terry McLaurin - Washington Commanders

• CBS ADP: 80
• Rotoballer Rank: 55
• Difference: 25

Terry McLaurin will turn 29 in his sixth NFL season in 2024, and he has finally found himself paired with a potentially above-average quarterback. While Jayden Daniels is a rookie, he might already be the most talented quarterback McLaurin has played within the NFL. McLaurin's ability has never been questioned; the critical issue has been whether Washington can provide a consistent playmaker to target him effectively.

Despite dealing with a rotating cast of quarterbacks, McLaurin has consistently produced, with four straight 1,000-yard seasons, and just missed the mark in his rookie year with 919 yards. Now, with a new quarterback who threw 40 touchdowns at LSU last season, there are high hopes that he and McLaurin will enjoy similar touchdown success in the NFL.

Another way Daniels could boost McLaurin's performance is by connecting on more deep passes. McLaurin ranked 13th in air yards last season, accumulating over 1,500 yards, highlighting his substantial potential if paired with a more accurate quarterback.

McLaurin epitomizes the dependable veteran wide receiver with a proven track record, making him a compelling investment. With a new coaching staff and a former Heisman-winning quarterback at the helm, there's optimism that McLaurin’s full potential—long anticipated by fans and analysts alike—can finally be realized. Currently projected as a potential seventh-round pick, McLaurin is a strong candidate who can exceed expectations and deliver significant value.

Other Notable Undervalued WRs (ADP/rank difference): Christian Kirk (16), Brandon Aiyuk (16), DK Metcalf (16), Keenan Allen (24), Rome Odunze (25), Diontae Johnson (25)

Trey McBride - Arizona Cardinals

• CBS ADP: 49
• Rotoballer Rank: 43
• Difference: 6

Finding an undervalued tight end on CBS proved challenging, but Trey McBride's ADP emerged as noteworthy among the top tight ends. McBride's 2023 season began slowly, with a snap share below 50% from Weeks 1-7. However, everything changed in Week 8 when he had a breakout game, catching ten passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, scoring 25.5 fantasy points.

Although he had a lackluster performance afterward, McBride had already established himself as the Cardinals' starting tight end. From Week 8 onward, he averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game and ranked as the overall TE4, including four games with 20+ fantasy points.

Trey McBride = My TE1🚀

In his 8 games with Kyler last year:
-6.6 Receptions per game
-67 Yards per game
-14.9 Fantasy Points per game

And now this year:
-Zach Ertz is gone
-Little to no target competition
-The easiest TE schedule in the league

It’s his world & I’m just… pic.twitter.com/wvpIB82qOL

— Bryce DeGroat (@NFL_Convo) August 13, 2024

Despite early-season usage issues, McBride led all tight ends with a 26.1% target rate per route run and ranked second with 2.03 yards per route run. His fantasy performance improved notably with Kyler Murray, averaging 14.8 points per game compared to just 7.0 points without him.

McBride's breakout is not surprising as the top tight-end prospect from the 2022 draft class. It's common for tight ends to make significant strides in their second year, and McBride's success will continue.

While McBride will need to compete with Marvin Harrison Jr. for top target shares, no other player on the Cardinals' roster will likely challenge them consistently for high-end target volume. In his first season as the Arizona Cardinals' offensive coordinator, Drew Petzig ran the most tight end-centric offense in the league, with tight ends receiving 32% of the team’s targets in 2023.

McBride also commanded a 27% target share after Zach Ertz was injured. Given Petzig’s tendency to involve tight ends heavily and the potential for McBride and Harrison to dominate targets like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce did once upon a time, McBride has a solid chance to finish the season as the TE1 overall.

Other Notable Undervalued TEs (ADP/rank difference): Jake Ferguson (3), Kyle Pitts (3), Pat Freiermuth (20)

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