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Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 2 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you avoid these popular names?
We are now a full week into the 2025 baseball season, so we can surely make definitive decisions about who will boom, who will bust, and who will perform as we expected.
Of course, that isn’t true. We are still dealing with very small samples for both hitters and pitchers. That’s why we have you covered. Each week, we will analyze a few popular waiver wire targets to pump the brakes when warranted.
This week, we have a new leadoff hitter, a utility man who may be dealing with an injury, and a couple of popular but uncertain closer specs. To the names!
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Luis Rengifo - 2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels (44 percent rostered)
This one hurts. I love Rengifo. The super-utility man rose to fantasy prominence in 2022 as he hit .264 with 17 home runs and six steals in 127 games. He then basically repeated the production the next year (.264/16/6 in 126 games). He seemed established as a solid hitter with a little pop and eligibility for days.
Then, last season, the Angels as a whole ran wild, and Rengifo followed suit with 24 stolen bases in under half a season (78 games). His power dipped as he fought through various injuries; he also lost shortstop and outfield eligibility.
The potential for average, speed, and hopes he’d return to 15-plus dingers led to Rengifo being a top 12-15 second base target, at least in deeper leagues. However, in what has become all too familiar for him in recent seasons, he pulled up lame with a hamstring on Friday night. We don’t know the extent of the injury yet but that alone means we should pump the brakes on adding him in shallow leagues.
Beyond that, the loss of power Rengifo exhibited last season has carried over. He has not hit a homer or barrel yet and carries just a 26 percent hard-hit rate. Moreover, there is a real threat to his regular role in Kyren Paris, who has come out of the gates smoking hot.
After Friday’s game -- in which he went 2-2 and scored a run -- Paris was hitting .545 with a homer and three steals. He’s walked as much as he’s struck out. This is a player who stole 44 bases in Double-A in 2023.
Paris can play both middle infield positions and has even covered center field. Sound like anyone? (To be fair, he has not exhibited the same hit tool as Rengifo, as Paris has struggled with strikeouts in prior seasons.)
For now, we would hold off on adding Rengifo, at least until there’s clarity on his health. Paris becomes an interesting potential add in deep leagues and a watchlist candidate in shallow ones (7 percent rostered).
Matt Wallner - OF, Minnesota Twins (25 percent rostered)
Wallner is another favorite. The Twins outfielder has displayed some of the most impressive power metrics in baseball while blasting 27 home runs over 515 plate appearances between 2023-24.
Wallner’s 17.5 percent barrel rate last season ranked sixth (min. 100 batted ball events). Anytime you can rank among this group, you’re doing something right.
Wallner is also now leading off versus righties as the Twins seek to leverage the .370-plus on-base percentages he showed the past two seasons. But there are two reasons to proceed cautiously here.
The first is that Wallner simply whiffs a lot. That’s the reason why, despite a high barrel rate, his barrels per plate appearance is much more modest. He struck out 36 percent of the time last season with just a 63.4 percent contact rate, even though he almost always bats with the handedness advantage.
That’s the other issue. Wallner simply will not play against lefties. For his career, he has been 48 percent worse than the league average against southpaws (52 wRC+).
Wallner has been unlucky so far in 2025 and doesn’t fully deserve his .143 average at the time of writing. His .214 BABIP is well off his .351 career number, although he’s contributed to that by hitting over 60 percent fly balls.
He has the strikeouts below 30 percent for the first time. He’ll be better than this. However, with significant limitations in his contact ability and playing time, we would keep the bids minimal.
If looking for a platoon bat, this writer prefers his teammate Trevor Larnach, who doesn’t have outlier power but provides a better all-around hitting profile (3 percent rostered).
Emilio Pagan - RP, Cincinnati Reds (17 percent rostered)
Emilio Pagan will be a popular waiver add, as it appears he is the current Reds closer.
When the Reds hired Terry Francona, we figured he would bring an element of steadiness and consistency to the team. While it’s too early to judge overall (despite three consecutive 1-0 losses earlier this week), not even a Hall of Fame-type manager could make this bullpen situation clear.
The quick background: Alexis Diaz, the incumbent, was quite bad last year, especially in giving out too many free passes. He wasn’t much better in the spring, then went on the (phantom?) injured list with a hamstring. In the meantime, after a failed dalliance with Ian Gibaut in the role, Pagan emerged.
But we know exactly what the 33-year-old Pagan is: a solid righty who gets a decent amount of strikeouts but also a lot of fly balls -- and home runs. Last year, he had a 47.1 percent fly-ball rate and 1.42 HR/9.
That’s a huge number, and it isn’t helped by Great American Ball Park being the most homer-friendly stadium in MLB. For his career, it’s an even uglier 1.53 HR/9. This helps explain why, despite solid skills (20.9 K-BB%, 3.19 SIERA), Pagan posted a 4.50 ERA.
This could work out for saves even with the ratio risk, but an even bigger red flag for Pagan is that Diaz began a rehab assignment Friday. Francona has already indicated he would like to see Diaz reclaim the closer role.
While that will depend on performance, Diaz could be back with the team this coming week. Beyond the home run issues, Pagan may simply not keep the role that will motivate many large FAAB bids.
If you need saves, we recommend only a limited bid on Pagan. The sneakier play may be to grab Diaz for cheap if he’s available on your waiver wire (73 percent rostered).
Dennis Santana - RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (18 percent rostered)
Like their Cincinnati neighbors in the division, the Pirates entered camp with a great deal of closer uncertainty despite having a healthy incumbent in David Bednar, who (like Diaz) was very bad last year. Spring training did not quell concerns over Bednar’s performance, although his velocity was in line with career norms.
Bednar was just sent down to the minors after struggling to begin the season, leaving a closer void. Manager Derek Shelton has not named a replacement, but Santana got the first save opportunity and converted it. There are a couple of issues with chasing Santana, however.
The first is his history. Santana debuted in 2018, and across more than 220 innings in the majors, he’s compiled a 4.73 ERA and less than a strikeout per inning. Even last season, Santana was cut by the Yankees after posting a 6.26 ERA through early June. He was lights out for the Pirates after they claimed him: 2.44 ERA, .92 WHIP, 10.15 K/9.
However, that may have been too good to be true. FanGraphs’ Bot Stuff said Santana graded just about average even with Pittsburgh with a 50 on the 20-80 scale (4.41 BotERA). The thing is, despite a solid 2.70 ERA so far this season, his filth factor has not improved. In fact, by the model, he has the worst stuff in the Pirates bullpen.
The other problem is that the Pirates likely want Bednar to make corrections in the minors and reclaim the closer role. When he was sent down, Shelton admitted as much, saying the team had a plan to “get him right” and “it’s about making sure we get David Bednar back to the status he was before.”
It’s likely Santana claims a few more saves and it’s true we don’t know how long Bednar will take to “get right.” Or if he’ll be good enough when he does. Maybe Santana will hold the role all season. But with the uncertainty and taking the context into account, we should keep the bids reasonable. As with the Reds-Diaz situation, it may be wise to stash Bednar if you can afford to do so.
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