Fantasy Baseball Draft Values: Later-Round Pitchers to Target in Draft and Hold Leagues (2026)

February 15, 2026

Corbin's fantasy baseball draft sleepers, later-round starting pitchers to target in draft-and-hold leagues for 2026. These are fantasy baseball SP value picks.

The calendar turned to February, and pitchers and catchers will begin to report in the coming days. We want to draft backward and find potential values in the later rounds. To identify late-round pitcher sleepers in draft-and-hold leagues, we're looking at starting pitchers going around pick 300 or later in Draft Champions leagues.

This requires fantasy managers to dip deep into the player pool, with the potential to hit on late-round options. The average draft position (ADP) data in this article came from the NFBC Draft Champions leagues since January 15, involving 15-team leagues with a 50-round draft without waiver pickups.

These pitchers came via leaderboards I pulled and sorted to identify sleepers based on the pitch-level metrics. Since many pitchers have flaws -- whether it's control, stuff, injury, or playing time -- we'll highlight their profiles' highs and lows, making them potential deep-league sleepers.

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Ryan Weathers, SP, New York Yankees

NFBC ADP: 306.5 (Since January 15)

Why in the world would we target a starting pitcher who missed nearly 150 days on the injured list with two significant injuries? Weathers started the season with a strained forearm, causing him to miss nearly two months. Then, Weathers dealt with a shoulder issue that turned into a left lat strain in early June, leading to two more months on the injured list.

Weathers missed more than three months due to a left index finger strain in the previous season (2024). That makes the injury risk high for Weathers, though we've seen his draft cost jump around 100 picks since he signed with the Yankees. It was a small sample (38 innings), but Weathers showed career-best strikeout skills, with a 13.6% swinging-strike rate.

Weathers's four-seam fastball increased by 1.0 mph in 2025. With that velocity increase, Weathers started throwing from a higher arm angle. Over the past two seasons, Weathers started using a different horizontal release point, moving six inches farther away from his midline than in 2023. When pitchers show a significant difference in release point, we expect adjustments in their pitch movement profiles.

The main effects from Weathers's arsenal involve the changeup dropping more (33 inches) over the past two seasons. We've also seen the sweeper evolve, with 38-40 inches of downward movement and 10-12 inches of glove-side sweep. Both pitches headline his arsenal from a whiff standpoint. That's evident in his changeup's 20.7 percent swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, the slider's swinging-strike rate finished at 16.1 percent in 2025. Both pitches were 3-5 percentage points higher than his career norm.

Besides health, Weathers's other concern involves home run rates, especially considering he will head to a hitter-friendly environment. Left-handed hitters have been crushing the four-seamer. That's evident in Weathers's four-seamer, allowing a .644 wOBA and .482 xwOBA in 2025, worse than the results from 2023 (.428 wOBA, .339 xwOBA) and 2024 (.360 wOBA, .407 xwOBA).

Fortunately, the risks have been baked into Weathers's cost, so it's worth taking a chance on him at the price, given the strikeout skills and increased win probability.

Jameson Taillon, SP, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 327.7

When we look at the surface-level advanced metrics, Taillon's skills don't scream upside or sleeper appeal. Taillon had a 4.41 xERA, worse than his actual ERA (3.68), with a 32 percent ball rate and 9.5 percent swinging-strike rate. It's Taillon's second-straight season with a swinging-strike rate under 10 percent, though the control improved slightly in 2025. There could be additional risk with Taillon, given the mediocre swinging-strike rate.

However, Taillon stood out after examining changes in the pitch movement profiles. Taillon maintained high-end extension while improving the four-seamers' induced vertical break to 18.3 inches. Unfortunately, Taillon doesn't have high-end velocity, so the four-seam doesn't generate above-average whiffs or weak contact. Taillon's four-seam added two inches of induced vertical movement, typically performing best when located in the upper third, while toward the upper corners.

Taillon threw a slower changeup (about 2 mph), which led to an additional four inches of downward movement in 2025. There were reports of Taillon throwing a kick change, which usually shifts the movement profile to fade a bit more to the arm side, which we've also seen. However, those pitch characteristics vary based on the pitcher and their pronator or supinator biases.

Besides the changeup's added downward movement, Taillon's changeup gained over an inch of arm-side fade. The changeup's results improved against left-handed hitters, evidenced by a .197 wOBA (.203 xwOBA) in 2025, compared to a .358 wOBA (.298 xwOBA) in 2024. That's somewhat of a wild card in Taillon's arsenal because we saw the changeup headline his arsenal, with a 19.9 percent swinging-strike rate in 2025, nearly double his career average.

Taillon's sweeper remained the other primary pitch for whiffs, with a 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate. However, the expected results for the sweeper should regress, with a .368 wOBA (.260 xwOBA) in 2025 after a .205 wOBA (.235 xwOBA) in 2024 against right-handed hitters.

Taillon might lack upside, but there's a floor of skills as a sleeper to build upon, especially if the changeup can sustain whiffs. Projections don't look so friendly for Taillon, but we could argue that they haven't captured the grip and movement adjustments from 2025.

Simeon Woods Richardson, SP, Minnesota Twins

NFBC ADP: 342.9 (Since January 15)

The expected ERA (4.68) suggests that the actual outcomes (4.04) were fluky. Woods Richardson's skills looked shaky with a 36 percent ball rate and an 11.1 percent swinging-strike rate. We saw a slight uptick in strikeout skills during the second half of the season, with a 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate, yet the ball rate stayed the same (36 percent).

Woods Richardson adjusted the pitch mix by throwing more splitters in August (17.4 percent) and in September (27.4 percent).

That's notable because the splitter was a new pitch for Woods Richardson in 2025. In September, Woods Richardson's splitter elicited an 18.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Woods Richardson's splitter allowed a .103 wOBA (.139 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters, making it a near-elite offering to opposite-handed hitters.

Woods Richardson's slider found success against right-handed hitters, allowing a .223 wOBA (.274 xwOBA), though it doesn't pop from a movement profile standpoint. That's further evident in the slider, which generated only a 12.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2025. When a pitcher finds success with pitches that lack an above-average movement profile, we could speculate on optimal command and location.

Interestingly, Woods Richardson has been throwing the slider from a lower arm angle, down to 42.5 degrees from over 46 degrees in 2024. He still had high-end extension numbers (73rd percentile), but his horizontal release point shifted more than three inches farther from his midline. That led to a slight fluctuation in the slider's downward and horizontal movement by 1-2 inches.

There are some intriguing characteristics with Woods Richardson's four-seamer, with over 18 inches of induced vertical break, coming from a high arm slot. However, hitters crush it when it's left in the heart of the zone. There's the potential for the four-seamer to take a step forward, giving him more than one pitch to attack either side of the plate.

Woods Richardson's profile can be volatile since he relies on command. Add the concern that the Twins' starting pitchers average the 22nd-most innings per game started and 17th-most pitches per start. However, Rocco Baldell is out for Derek Shelton, the former Pirates' manager. The Pirates' starting pitchers weren't far from the Twins in innings and pitches per start in 2025.

Those risks have been baked into the early cost, with an above-average starting pitcher within the range of outcomes.

Luis Morales, SP, Athletics

NFBC ADP: 409.9 (Since January 15)

Morales came up in the middle of August and performed better than the expected ERA (4.51) suggested. As a prospect, Morales flashed a 12-13 percent swinging-strike rate with a 39 percent ball rate across Double- and Triple-A in 2025. In the small MLB sample of 48 innings, Morales posted a 9.5 percent swinging-strike rate and 39 percent ball rate. If Morales struggles with control, we want the swinging-strike rate to be in the near-elite range.

The four-seamer can be electric, averaging over 97 mph, but it was hit hard in the majors. That's evident in Morales's four-seamer, allowing a .362 wOBA (.382 xwOBA) against lefties and a .355 wOBA (.388 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters. Thankfully, Morales throws two different breaking pitches with nasty movement profiles.

Morales's sweeper generates above-average downward movement and glove-side sweep. The sweeper compares closely to Will Warren, Paul Blackburn, Hayden Wesneski, Clay Holmes, and Clarke Schmidt.

Morales's sweeper dominated against right-handed hitters, inducing a 16 percent swinging-strike rate while allowing a .186 wOBA (.181 xwOBA). Theoretically, that gives Morales at least one pitch to find success against right-handed hitters. We want to see Morales develop the changeup. However, the changeup is a mixed bag, allowing weak contact, with a .102 wOBA, though the .269 expected wOBA suggests the outcomes will regress.

Morales's changeup doesn't generate whiffs, likely because he throws a hard changeup. That said, the changeup doesn't have above-average downward movement, which typically coincides with fewer whiffs. It's partly because Morales's changeup moves 15 inches toward his arm-side as he peppers it away from left-handed hitters.

Morales's profile is volatile with the control problems, hinting at a potential reliever path. It's a low-risk, medium-reward type starting pitcher at his price to consider targeting in the later rounds.

Kumar Rocker, SP, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 524.5 (Since January 15)

We'll close out with a deep sleeper. Rocker's chances of being in the starting rotation likely went down with the addition of MacKenzie Gore. Rocker was optioned in early August after significant struggles at the MLB level. There's still a chance Rocker makes the Rangers' starting rotation, so let's highlight him. First off, regression should hit for Rocker, with a 4.22 xERA via poor luck (63 percent strand rate) and home runs (17 percent HR/F).

Rocker added a cutter in 2025. He continued to use the cutter often in June (38.3 percent) and July (36.3 percent). Rocker ditched the slider in favor of the cutter. His slider is a slower version with a significant difference in downward movement (12 inches). Rocker's cutter gave up a .298 wOBA (.288 xwOBA) against righties and a .308 wOBA (.290 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in 2025.

Rocker's cutter looks like a harder gyro-like slider that he pounds low and inside to left-handed hitters. Though the cutter seems like a mediocre offering, it seems to have helped with better outcomes via the slider, especially against right-handed hitters (.147 wOBA, .186 xwOBA) in 2025. That's further evident by Rocker's cutter (18.9 percent) and slider (19.4 percent), both with a swinging-strike rate around 19 percent in 2025.

Unless it's a draft-and-hold league or a deep 15-team league, Rocker is somewhat irrelevant. However, we wanted to highlight Rocker's notable pitch changes in the 2025 sample. Hopefully, Rocker can find success in spring training and early in the season to earn another chance in the starting rotation.

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