ADP Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Catchers Set to Outperform Their ADP in 2024

March 18, 2024

Joey Pollizze lists three fantasy baseball catchers who will outperform their current ADP. These catchers are draft day values at their current fantasy ADP and should be picked up for fantasy baseball leagues.

Catcher has always been one of the thinnest position groups in fantasy baseball. There are many elite options at the top, but after that, there are a bunch of wild-card options. That also applies to 2024 fantasy drafts.

At the top of drafts, Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, William Contreras, and J.T. Realmuto are all going within the first eight rounds. Rutschman is the most valuable option of the bunch, with an ADP of 39, while Smith, Contreras, and Realmuto all have ADPs somewhere between 72 and 85.

However, if you don't want to spend a high draft pick on a catcher, you have come to the right place. This article will feature three catchers who are set to outperform their ADP in 2024.

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Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals

Average ADP: 149.6

Willson Contreras entered his first year with the St. Louis Cardinals with high expectations from the organization. The Cardinals signed the All-Star catcher to a five-year, $87.5 million deal before the 2023 season. Nonetheless, it wasn't smooth sailing for Contreras in Year 1.

Contreras struggled mightily at the plate in the first half of the season and entered July with a .214 batting average, eight home runs, 31 RBI, and 16 doubles across 74 games. His poor start is likely a major reason why his ADP currently sits at 149.6 in fantasy drafts. However, the 31-year-old catcher could be in for a bounceback campaign, especially after a strong second half.

The Cardinals catcher might have entered July with poor numbers at the plate, but his final 51 games should give fantasy managers plenty of hope in 2024. From July 3 to September 20, Contreras hit .343 with 12 HRs, 36 RBI, and 11 doubles. Those are noticeable improvements from the three-time All-Star, which should continue into this year.

In this video, #STLCards catcher Willson Contreras scorches a 4-seam fastball from #Astros RHP Ryan Pressley 106.3 mph. Contreras' blast hit off the wall in right-center for a double. pic.twitter.com/wyj7oDbqsO

— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) March 7, 2024

Last season, Contreras ranked in the top half of the league in expected batting average (.279), expected slugging (.490), average exit velocity (91.3 mph), barrel rate (12.2%), and hard-hit rate (46.9%). He'll also be hitting behind both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, meaning he should see plenty of RBI chances in 2024. Waiting on a catcher and taking a chance on him in the 13th to 14th round could be a smart move in fantasy this season. 

Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks

Average ADP: 164.2

Gabriel Moreno will enter his second full MLB season in 2024, and he is one of my favorite sleeper picks in the later rounds. Moreno showed a lot of promise all around the diamond last year, which included winning a Gold Glove and hitting four HRs in the postseason. That has the 24-year-old catcher trending up in fantasy this year.

Moreno was solid at the plate in his first full season in the majors, hitting .284, seven HRs, 50 RBI, and 19 doubles across 111 games. The HRs might not be there for the Diamondbacks catcher, which explains why his ADP is so low. However, he'll hit for a high average (hit .311 in 256 career games in the minors) and total around 20 doubles and four to six stolen bases per year.

The young catcher won't be a target for those needing HRs in roto leagues, but there's a strong chance he could reach double-digit homers in 2024. If you count the postseason, Moreno hit 11 HRs in 128 games, including a long shot off Jordan Montgomery in the World Series.

Most catchers drain your batting average, but there are a few who can be assets in this category.

Steamer projects SIX catchers to put up .270+ BA:

Gabriel Moreno: .285
Alejandro Kirk: .275
Yainer Diaz: .273
William Contreras: .273
Adley Rutschman: .272
Keibert Ruiz: .270

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 6, 2024

Moreno will enter the 2024 season with plenty of upside in the later rounds due to his potential in a solid offense. Last season, the catcher found himself hitting third in the postseason. That would have him hitting behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte and in front of Christian Walker. If that's the case again, he should see his RBI numbers and runs scored increase from last year.

Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers

Average ADP: 184.6

Texas Rangers catcher Jonah Heim is coming off a strong 2023 campaign that saw him win a Gold Glove and make his first All-Star appearance. Heim also put together a solid season at the plate, totaling 118 hits, 18 HRs, 95 RBI, and 28 doubles behind a .258 average.

Heim really exceeded expectations last year and broke out in his fourth season. He set career highs in almost every category while becoming a consistent bat in the Rangers lineup. In a top-five offense in baseball, the 28-year-old should continue to establish himself as a late-round catcher option in fantasy drafts.

It was surprising to see where Heim was going in drafts this offseason, especially after such a strong year. His 184.6 ADP is the 12th best among all catchers, and he's going even later (218) in CBS drafts. Still, he's a player who will put up solid homers, doubles, and RBI numbers while hitting for a solid average.

Jonah Heim was the only MLB hitter last season to walk five times with the bases loaded. pic.twitter.com/K5CG76ga1D

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 6, 2024

His numbers from the 2023 season also shouldn't change much this year. Last season, Heim was hitting anywhere from fifth to seventh in the Rangers lineup and drove in 95 runs (15 more than any other catcher in baseball). Hitting behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia should certainly help in that category. With the lineup expected to stay the same this season, the switch-hitting catcher should have no problem driving in over 75 runs.

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