Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? (Week 3)

April 9, 2026

Dan analyzes advanced pitcher statistics to see who is surging for fantasy baseball this season. Are these pitchers breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for Rhett Lowder, Michael Wacha, and more.

We've been getting a second look at starting pitchers over the last week, and we have quite a few who have performed well twice in a row to start the year, while it feels like we've had a lot of starters experience arm trouble already as well.

If you are new to this column, remember that the goal is to take a look at several pitchers every week who are showing signs of "breaking out." That term gets thrown a lot in our industry, but for me, it simply means they're flirting with the possibility of improving their baseline performance over a larger sample size.

So while we typically look at younger pitchers as potential "breakouts," I won't limit myself to only youngsters. The concept of the breakout can be applied to pitchers of all experience levels, as we have seen numerous examples of pitchers improving in a big way from season to season, even into their thirties. This week, we have a blend of veterans and younger arms. All rostership percentages are courtesy of Yahoo!

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Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

• 50% Rostered
• 2025 Stats: 10 W, 172.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 126 K
• First Two Starts of 2026: 13 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 10 K

Wacha's first two starts have been quite effective, pushing him up the rankings in standard 5x5 roto leagues to 81st overall on the Yahoo player rater. That's right behind Chase Burns and right behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto!

I'm not going to attempt to make the case that Wacha is suddenly the same caliber of pitcher as either of those aces, but his strong start made me want to dig in and see if there was something possibly different that the 34-year-old veteran with a career ERA of 3.86 is doing this season.

What we usually look for could be a potential bump in velocity, a significant change in pitch mix, or a major improvement in control/command.

Unfortunately, Wacha, on paper, looks like pretty much the exact same pitcher that he has been for the last four years. He's not overpowering hitters with a 93 mph fastball, but he continues to utilize a six-pitch arsenal and solid control to be an effective pitcher.

Wacha's only true plus pitch is his curveball, which is still quite nasty. However, he throws it less than 10% of the time, and his slider even less often.

Michael Wacha, Filthy 76mph Curveball. 😷

7th K pic.twitter.com/gRMgP3AWk9

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2026

It's pretty clear that his approach has not really changed, and he's never been a high-strikeout pitcher, with only two seasons of his 13 with a K% of 23% or higher. Without elite strikeout skills, he's certainly bound to see some regression in his ERA soon, which his SIERA of 4.00 suggests.

He's pitching above his head with a BABIP of .167 and a strand rate of 100%. So let's put to bed the notion that Wacha is a Cy Young contender. However, that does not mean he's not a useful asset for fantasy baseball managers this season. Not every pitcher that we research will turn out to be a "breakout" in progress, but Wacha is far from a "fake out," too, as long as you have realistic expectations for him going forward.

Verdict: Wacha is very likely to regress to his baseline soon, but he's been a very reliable source of wins, ERA, and WHIP now for four straight seasons. He's shown that he can outperform his underlying numbers for multiple seasons and has been an innings-eater for the Royals the last two years. Wacha is not an exciting pitcher to roster, but he could be one of the most underrated pitchers based on his durability and predictable productivity.

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

• 22% Rostered
• 2024 Stats: (Did Not Pitch In MLB in 2025) 2 W, 30.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 22 K
• First Two Starts of 2026: 11 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 9 K

Lowder is still technically a rookie, despite making six starts for the Reds back in 2024. The 24-year-old is set to make his third start of the season against Miami today, and is already seeing his rostership on the rise after two very solid outings against Boston and Texas to start the year.

Lowder's spot in the rotation was very much up in the air coming into spring training, but the Reds quickly lost ace Hunter Greene (for what sounds like at least half the season) and number two starter Nick Lodolo, who continues to battle blister issues.

Andrew Abbott has been quite mediocre (surprised?), but the Reds have to be pretty happy with how Lowder and Burns have stepped up to anchor the Cincinnati rotation.

We don't even have much minor league data to crunch with Lowder, since the former first-round pick went from High-A all the way to the major leagues in his first professional season (2024), but was limited to just 9 IP last year due to a litany of injuries. But Lowder was moderately effective in his first cup of coffee, posting a 1.17 ERA across 30 innings, though he only whiffed 17% of hitters and walked 10%.

When we take a closer look at Lowder, he has a pretty interesting four-pitch arsenal and a very balanced approach in terms of usage, throwing no single pitch more than 30% of the time.

While he lacks above-average velocity on his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, he does have plus movement on all four pitches. His sinker and changeup both move more horizontally and vertically than those of his peers. And while his fastball doesn't have the strong iVB (induced vertical break) we are typically looking for, it does have more arm-side run than most other four-seamers.

Lowder has featured a heavy sinker-slider mix to righties this season, while he leads with the four-seamer to lefties and mixes in all three of his other pitches equally. Lowder posted some solid groundball rates in the minors with his sinker-heavy approach, but has yet to do so at the big league level, and his 53% FB% so far this year is a bit worrisome for a pitcher in Cincinnati's homer-friendly ballpark.

There's most certainly some regression coming for Lowder (as there is for pretty much any pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA right now), as he checks the boxes with unsustainable marks in BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. However, there's a lot to like here as well.

Lowder's xERA of 2.62 suggests that opponents have not hit him all that hard, and his changeup has a solid 40% whiff rate to start the year. We just really need to see him pitch more before we can start to get a sense of what caliber of starting pitcher he can be, but the early returns are pretty solid.

Verdict: We aren't ready to deem Lowder a full-on breakout just yet, but there's plenty of room for optimism. Lowder hasn't exhibited the same type of high ceiling as fellow teammate Chase Burns, but he's clearly a very competitive young pitcher who already knows how to "pitch" and isn't overly reliant on just pure stuff. I think he has the potential to be rosterable all season, but expectations should be tempered a bit as he's clearly outperforming his underlying numbers.

Slade Cecconi, Cleveland Guardians

• 5% Rostered
• 2025 Stats: 7 W, 132 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 109 K
• First Two Starts of 2026: 10.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 11 K

Is it me, or do the Cleveland Guardians just continue to pump out good pitchers? Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo look fantastic out of the gate, while Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee might be finally putting it all together this season.

Cecconi, who talent-wise is pretty clearly Cleveland's fifth-best starter, is not a product of the Cleveland farm system, but he came over to the Guardians as a 25-year-old with a 6+ ERA in his first two seasons in Arizona and promptly turned in a Michael Wacha-esque 2025 campaign.

The Cleveland starters were dealt a tough hand to start the year, facing off against the Dodgers, Mariners, and Cubs. Cecconi was roughed up a bit by the Mariners in his debut, but turned in a gem against the Cubs, whiffing six hitters over six scoreless frames while allowing just one hit and one walk.

He's available across 95% of leagues, and with the Guardians reputation for developing pitchers, I am intrigued with his potential. So let's see if anything sticks out here with Cecconi's profile.

The first thing that I noticed was that he tweaked his pitch mix quite a bit last season in Cleveland. He was a pretty conventional fastball-slider-curveball-changeup guy in Arizona, but ditched his changeup and slider last year, while adding a cutter, sinker, and sweeper.

This year, it looks like he's continuing the trend of lowering his four-seam usage, while throwing a lot more cutters, curveballs, and sweepers. He's primarily fastball, cutter, curveball to lefties, and has mixed in both the sweeper and sinker to righties.

All three breaking pitches have very different shapes and velocities. His cutter is shaped more like a slider, but he can throw it in the high 80s to hitters from both sides of the plate. It's a nice contrast to his four-seamer, which has 12.2 inches of arm-side run.

Slade Cecconi, Nasty 89mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/8wdB5DFf7g

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2026

The sweeper looks like a work in progress, but it's another pitch he can mix in to righties and comes in around 84 mph. His best breaking pitch by far is the curveball, which drops 2.5 inches further than the league average and is sporting a 42% Whiff% so far this year. It's only been a handful of innings so far, but Cecconi has seen his K% jump from 20% last season to 24.4% this year.

Cecconi isn't going to blow hitters away with a 92-93 mph fastball, but his evolving pitch mix has me a bit fascinated. I mean, we saw Shane Bieber dominate with really good secondary stuff and a 93 mph fastball for years in Cleveland, and both Cantillo and Messick are getting whiffs without overpowering hitters this season, too.

Verdict: While I think run prevention is still the biggest hurdle for Cecconi here, I do think the addition of the cutter to his arsenal is an intriguing development, as it makes him less dependent on his four-seam fastball that can get hit hard. If he continues to develop his secondary pitches, I think there is some strikeout potential here with Cecconi.

At best, he's a guy you may end up with on the end of your bench this season, with the worst-case scenario being that he's a streamer with strikeout upside who you can pick up when he's facing a weak lineup.

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