Early Quarterback Breakouts for 2023 Fantasy Football

March 27, 2023

Robert analyzes fantasy football quarterbacks primed for breakout season in 2023. He looks at QBs that could win your leagues as fantasy football breakouts.

In the past couple of years, the fantasy football landscape has changed how it has approached the quarterback position. Much of that has been forced upon us by the excellence and sheer dominance exhibited by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

The value of signal callers in fantasy football has never been higher. The NFL continues to evolve into more of a passing league and with each passing year, the league welcomes more athletic, dual-threat quarterbacks. They are the kind of quarterbacks fantasy football managers drool over.

With the growing favor of the quarterback position in fantasy football, identifying these breakouts at a position whose importance is only going to continue to grow in fantasy football circles could be crucial. We’ll be looking at four different quarterbacks who could breakout in 2023. The definition used to breakout here is to have the best statistical season of their career in a significant way. Let’s get started.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Underdog ADP of QB4

You knew Justin Fields was going to be first on the list. Truthfully, he could be “the” list. If Fields finished as “the” QB1 in 2023, I wouldn’t be all that surprised. No, I’m not joking. I hear the grumbling from the peanut gallery about how he can’t pass, so let’s take a look at his first two seasons, solely through the lens of a passer, shall we?

Man… okay, yeah, you’re right. Those passing numbers are awful. Only a 56.66% completion percentage?! Which I mean, that makes complete sense when you look at the insanely high number of bad throws he made last year. In fairness, since I put Fields as a breakout candidate, let’s look at where some of these numbers would have ranked in 2022.

His touchdown percentage would’ve ranked 21st, just behind Carson Wentz. The interception percentage would’ve been ninth, just behind Matt Ryan. The completion percentage would’ve ranked 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks, only ahead of Zach Wilson and his bad throw percentage would’ve been the fourth-highest. His 6.6 yards per attempt would’ve ranked 27th, tied with Matt Ryan and just ahead of Davis Mills. Okay, so yeah, you guys are right. That’s downright dreadful.

Actually, I hate when I do this. So, I actually messed up. Those are actually Josh Allen’s statistics from his first two seasons. Ugh… talk about embarrassing. Okay, let’s try this again. Here are Justin Fields’ passing stats through his first two seasons.

Okay, so as you can see, Fields isn’t much better. Once again, we’re seeing a completion percentage below 60% and a touchdown percentage that is actually, even lower. The interception percentage is surprisingly better, as is the bad-throw percentage, but still, we’re looking at a lackluster passer here, there’s no denying that.

Fields’ touchdown percentage of just 3.7% would’ve ranked 21st, the same as Josh Allen’s would’ve. His completion percentage would’ve finished 32nd, just ahead of Zach Wilson, same spot as Allen. Basically, what we’re looking at here is another bad passer, but hey, look at Josh Allen now, right? Plenty of reasons to feel good about Fields.

You know what guys… I think I did it again. Those numbers from above, those are actually Jalen Hurts’ first two seasons as a passer. Twice in a row. Can’t believe they let me publish this with so many mistakes. For real now though, let’s get to Justin Fields.

That’s actually Justin Fields’ first two years as a passer. I promise. Interestingly, you’ll see that Fields had a higher touchdown percentage and completion percentage than both Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. His interception percentage was higher than both, but his bad-throw percentage was actually less than Allen’s. His yards per attempt were essentially tied with Hurts and still solidly ahead of Allen. By all accounts, while neither of these three quarterbacks were good in their first two seasons, if we eliminate the counting stats of total pass attempts, it could be argued Fields wasn’t actually the worst one. That would be Josh Allen.

Now, this shouldn’t have to be said, but I’m going to say it anyway… this does not mean that Justin Fields will become as good as passers as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have become. It’s merely to say that it’s possible and that level of upside is something fantasy managers should be swooning over. At the very least, we should be expecting major, major improvements.

Josh Allen had the benefit of playing his first three seasons under the same head coach and the same offensive coordinator. Hurts and Fields weren’t so lucky. They each were faced with a new head coach and new offensive coordinator in just their second season. One similar circumstance that all three now have in common is all of their organizations made massive trades for a star receiver prior to their third year.

Josh Allen received Stefon Diggs. Jalen Hurts got AJ Brown and now Justin Fields will be throwing to DJ Moore. If you want to squabble over the fact that Moore isn’t on the same level as Diggs and Brown, be my guest, and even though you’re not wrong, you’d be missing the point. Fields will be entering his second season with the same head coach, and the same offensive system, and just received a significant talent boost around him.

DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, and Cole Kmet make for an excellent quartet of receivers and we should be expecting Fields to take a major leap in terms of passing efficiency and volume. This is really all we need for Fields to become the next superstar fantasy quarterback.

We all know what kind of runner Fields is, but just in case anyone needs some refreshers, here you go. In 2022, he had the second-most rushing yards by a quarterback of all time. He also had the third-most rushing attempts by a quarterback in a single season and the 13th-most rushing touchdowns in the Super Bowl era.

Last year, he ranked seventh in rushing yards and was tied for 12th for rushing touchdowns among all NFL players. He had 10 carries that went for 20 or more yards. This was tied for second among all NFL players. In regards to carries that went for more than 40 yards, Fields was tied for first with Derrick Henry and Travis Etienne. We all know what he brings to the game with his legs.

It is not out of the question that Justin Fields finishes as “the” QB1. Seriously, his rushing prowess gives him that level of upside. The sky is the limit for this kid and right now, all the stars seem to be aligning.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Underdog ADP of QB8

Trevor Lawrence is another easily identifiable breakout quarterback for 2023. While Justin Fields is being talked about as an elite fantasy option at quarterback, Lawrence is likely going to be an elite quarterback in the NFL and an elite fantasy option. It would not surprise me, if, by the end of 2023, Lawrence is being grouped with Joe Burrow. This kid is getting ready to explode.

The chart above shows just the insane level of improvements Lawrence has made. At this point, that first season under Urban Meyer can be completely disregarded. In the first nine weeks of the 2022 season, we witnessed massive improvements – all the way across the board. This was despite working with a brand new coach, a brand new offensive coordinator, a brand new scheme, a brand new No. 1 receiver, a brand new No. 3 receiver, and a brand new tight end. That is a bunch of new and changing parts and it didn’t matter.

What is really exciting though, as the season went on and Lawrence became more and more comfortable with the system, his coaches, and his teammates, his production sky-rocketed. From Weeks 10-18, he was the QB7 in PPG. In all honesty, Lawrence kind of already broke out in the second half of the 2022 season. The acclimation period of early last season is doing its best to hide it, but it was all right there to see during their stretch run to the playoffs.

Now, entering 2023, not only will Lawrence will have a full year under his belt in Doug Pederson’s program and more comfort with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, but the team will also be welcoming Calvin Ridley. The masses may have forgotten about him having missed the second half of the 2021 season and 2022 in its entirety, but let me remind you of who this guy is.

2019 was his sophomore season when the Falcons still employed Julio Jones, but during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Calvin Ridley was an alpha. I implore you to read this self-written piece by Ridley to get a better sense of who he is and what he’s been through.

You’ll notice Marvin Jones's stats from 2022, that’s because that’s the player Calvin Ridley will be replacing. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram will all still be there, but Marvin Jones is going to be Calvin Ridley in 2023 and for Lawrence, that is an undeniable and dramatic increase in talent.

Now, fully engrossed in Pederson's system with the best collection of talent around him, fantasy managers should be expecting more of what we saw from him in the second half of last season when he led the Jaguars' to the postseason. If we're being honest, we should be expecting even more than that. A top-five finish in 2023 is not out of the question. It won't be long until we're talking about Lawrence in the same group as Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Underdog ADP of QB12

People are going to laugh. I know, I get it. Yes, he only had 15 touchdown passes last year. Yes, he was dreadful in 2020 and 2021. These things are all true, but guys, Daniel Jones is going to completely break out in 2023. I’m calling it.

We forget, but Daniel Jones actually had a really good rookie season. No, I’m serious. His rookie season was really, really good. You forget. In 12 starts, Jones completed 61.76% of his passes and averaged 250.83 yards per start. Okay, that’s 4,264 yards over 17 games and we’re not working with some five or six-game sample either. No, no - we have 12 starts to go by.

He threw 24 touchdown passes in those 12 starts. That’s two touchdowns per game for those who are following along. That’s a 17-game pace of 34. Kind of crazy, right? He did all of that as a rookie with his two best receivers being the fifth-round rookie, Darius Slayton, and 31-year-old, Golden Tate.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “yeah, but then what happened?” That’s easy. Joe Judge and Jason Garrett happened, that’s what. Pat Shurmur left after Jones’ rookie season and the front office brought in Judge as head coach and he hired Garrett as offensive coordinator. I’m not saying all 100% of the blame goes on Judge and Garrett, but there was a lot of promise in Jones heading into his second year, and rightfully so. He then bombs out in years two and three with terrible coaching and then once again, shows a lot of promise in year four under Brian Daboll.

I totally understand if you don’t want to buy into this theory hook, line, and sinker, but you have to admit, it’s interesting. Coaching is so important in the NFL - scheme, fit, it all matters. Not only did Jones have to contend with two terrible offensive minds, but he had very little help. Consider…

In 2020, his sophomore season, Saquon Barkley tore his ACL and missed all but two games. The team’s leading rusher was Wayne Gallman. If you’re wondering where he’s playing nowadays – he’s not. His leading receiver was once again fifth-round selection, Darius Slayton. Not only that, but PFF ranked the Giants’ offensive line as the 31st- “best” unit that year. You know, out of 32 teams, so that’s helpful. Now, I’m not making excuses – I’m really not, but there’s important context to his 2020 and 2021 seasons that is rarely talked about. Jones played poorly. That’s a fact. Jones had terrible coaching, terrible skilled players around him, and a terrible offensive line. That’s also a fact.

2021 didn’t get much better for Jones. While Barkley played 13 games, he was still making his way back from that torn ACL and hobbled through an in-season high-ankle sprain. He had 593 rushing yards on 162 carries – a 3.7-yard per-carry average. Not great Bob! He was tied for first on the team in rushing with Devontae Booker. He is also not in the NFL anymore, in case you were wondering.

The leading receiver in 2021? Kenny Golladay. Yeah, that guy. He led the team with – wait for it – 521 yards. Kadarius Toney, was their second “best” with 420. Golladay missed four games, Toney missed seven, Evan Engram missed two, Sterling Shepard missed 10, and Darius Slayton missed four. Talk about musical chairs, am I right? Not really an ideal situation for a young quarterback. Not only are the pass-catchers pretty darn bad, but they’re in and out of the lineup constantly. And the offensive line? Garbage, but if we’re trying to be positive for a change, they did take a step forward – a single step forward. PFF ranked the Giants’ offensive line 30th in 2021 out of 32 teams.

Now that we’ve taken a stroll down memory lane, we’re back to his 2022 season where he played under new head coach Brian Daboll for the first time. If you’re unfamiliar with him, he was in Buffalo and was the offensive coordinator from the day Josh Allen was drafted to the day he became the Giants’ head coach. I’m not saying Daboll “made” Allen, but I am saying he likely played a role in his development, which is good for Jones.

Last year, for the first time since his rookie year, Jones had a healthy Barkley in the lineup. The offensive line was pretty bad again – PFF ranked them as the 30th-best unit in 2022. He also, once again, had no one to throw the ball to. Darius Slayton led the team in receiving with 724 yards and Richie James was second with 569. He remains a free agent at this time. Kind of theme, isn’t it?

Despite that, Jones saw his completion percentage rise to 67.2% in 2022, which was the sixth-highest in the NFL. It had never before been higher than 64.5%. His interception rate was the lowest in the NFL, at just 1.1%. According to Pro Football Reference, his bad throw percentage was at just 12.2%. From 2019-2021, Jones had never once before been below 17.5%. His QB rating was 92.5, which was the 14th-best.

With an improved supporting cast around him in 2023, which will include newly acquired Darren Waller and Parris Campbell and very likely another high-ranking receiver in this year’s upcoming draft, Jones will undoubtedly have the best pass-catchers of his career. Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins after a promising sophomore season also return and second-round rookie Wan’Dale Robinson will be back on the field. The arrow is pointing up.

We can’t touch on Jones’ breakout status without touching on one of the biggest reasons he belongs in this category – his rushing. Last season, Jones had over 100 fantasy points from rushing alone. He finished with 708 yards and seven touchdowns. Among quarterbacks, he ranked fifth in rushing yards and was tied for third in touchdowns. This added rushing gives him a safe weekly floor, but it also increases his maximum upside.

With that kind of rushing upside, the passing statistics do not need to be insanely high for Jones to finish inside the top 10 or higher. We’ve seen this with Jalen Hurts in 2021 and with Justin Fields in 2022. Rushing for a quarterback in fantasy football is a massive X-factor that simply cannot be ignored and Jones has it. To be fair, he always has.

In 2020, he was on pace for 515 rushing yards, and in 2021, he was on pace for 461 yards. Both of those would’ve ranked seventh among quarterbacks in 2022. This has always been an element of his game, but Daboll seemed to unlock it more. Not really all that surprising, that’s what good coaches do.

Don’t be surprised if in year two under Brian Daboll and with improved play from his pass-catchers that Daniel Jones takes his game to a new level we have not yet seen before. You heard it here first.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

Underdog ADP of QB14

Yes, we’re going to do this again because truthfully, we haven’t been wrong yet. The question has just been delayed. This is football, sometimes that happens. Injuries exist. They suck. They’re unfortunate, but they are real.

We all know why Trey Lance is a breakout fantasy football quarterback. It’s simple – he can run. Look no further than what Jalen Hurts did in 2021 or Justin Fields in 2022. Heck, even Daniel Jones in 2022. Daniel Jones was QB10 in PPG last season with just 3,205 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. But hey, he had over 700 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, so it all worked out in the end and why is that?

It’s because quarterbacks who can run are an absolute cheat code. It’s no wonder Allen, Jackson, and Murray are routinely ranked as high as they are. Their rushing ability gives them a ceiling very few others can obtain and a floor that is quite insulated. Fantasy managers should expect the 49ers' offense to have a package of plays similar to how Allen is used in Buffalo and how Cam Newton was used in Carolina. Lance is going to be in play down by the goal line and it shouldn’t be out of the question he finishes with six or more rushing scores.

As a sophomore at North Dakota State, he rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. You can knock the competition if you want – completely valid – still, 1,100 yards is 1,100 yards and that’s impressive any way you slice it when it’s a quarterback doing the rushing.

In the only two games he started as a rookie, he combined for 24 rushes and 120 yards. He also played over 50% of the snaps in Week 4 of the 2021 season due to Jimmy Garoppolo being injured and he still managed to finish with 41 rushing yards with half the playing time.

In his lone start of 2022 that lasted more than 20 snaps - he was injured very early in Week 2 – Lance had 13 carries and 54 rushing yards. Again, this is an incredibly small sample size of just four games over two years, but he has 215 rushing yards over his four appearances with more than 50% of the snaps played. That’s 53.75 rushing yards per game or 914 rushing yards across 17 games. Feel free to say that is unlikely to happen because guess what? It’s probably is, but that’s not the point. The point is you can cut that by 75%, you can damn near cut it by 50%, and you still have one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL and that equals fantasy football goodness.

While he’s likely to struggle a bit passing the football, there’s no better receiving group or coaching staff in the NFL for manufacturing fantasy points for its quarterback. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are as good as they come when it comes to creating yardage after the catch and Coach Shanahan is a mastermind at getting his guys open in space. Lance will have plenty of easy reads where his playmakers on the outside will be given the opportunity to do the rest. As far as fantasy points, it’s all the same anyways.

Over the last four years, the 49ers have averaged 2,246 yards after the catch (YAC). That is easy, easy money for any quarterback. Those are all free yards and more importantly, free fantasy points. Remember, that also only includes 11 games with Christian McCaffrey. Between his rushing and YAC his teammates will compile, Lance if he stays healthy and starts all 17 games will easily blow past his current QB14 ranking.

Right now, there are questions as to who will start for the 49ers. Will it be Lance or Brock Purdy? Purdy isn’t healthy right now, Lance is and truthfully, there’s no guarantee that Purdy will be. There’s also the sheer amount of draft capital that the 49ers have invested in Lance and to this point, no one can say if they made the right or wrong decision. You can bet they want to find out for themselves.

The most likely scenario here is that Lance gets the first crack at the starting job, but the margin for error has lessened with Purdy’s strong play at the end of the year. That chance coupled with his rushing upside and the extremely fantasy-friendly environment that is the 49ers’ quarterback gig should make fantasy managers more than willing to take another swing on Lance this summer.

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