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Kevin's dynasty fantasy baseball risers, fallers and outlooks from the 2025 MLB trade deadline. Dynasty fantasy baseball outlooks for Mason Miller, Leo De Vries, Eduardo Tait, more.
What an exhilarating MLB trade deadline we had this season. It seems like this was one of the busiest final 36-48 hours of a deadline I can remember. There were not only a large quantity of deals, but there were many quality, exciting deals that will have a big impact this season and long term.
Many of the big-name major leaguers that got moved were high-end relievers, so there are tons of fantasy implications in the back ends of a dozen bullpens. However, that's more of a redraft topic, so I won't try to evaluate that too much other than by saying that it's Randy Rodriguez Season in the Bay Area.
The often underdiscussed component of these deals is evaluating the prospects traded and the young guys who suddenly have an opportunity in the majors or have lost one. Let's take a look at some of my dynasty thoughts from eight big deadline deals.
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The Blockbuster Mason Miller, Leodalis De Vries Deal
Full Trade: Padres acquire Mason Miller and JP Sears, Athletics acquire Leodalis De Vries, Braden Nett, Henry Baez, and Eduarniel Núñez
Ok, so I said I didn't want to focus on bullpen trades, but I had to start with this blockbuster deal. AJ Preller is a known madman, but it actually shocked me that he was willing to part with Leo De Vries in a deal for a reliever.
This is probably the biggest deadline deal we've seen since... well, when Preller and the Padres traded James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and others for Juan Soto and Josh Bell a few years ago.
De Vries is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. I ranked him as my number six non-debuted prospect in my July update. This deal shouldn't have a big impact on his value. However, my buddy Lucas AKA The Prospect Professor had an interesting take about this, saying De Vries should benefit from being in a situation where he's viewed and developed as a true member of an org's future and not just a potential asset/trade chip.
Flag plant of sorts: this move will be a huge boost for Leo De Vries' development 📈🌟
The Padres have shown little commitment to building their prospects into producers, and the Athletics' youth movement is among the best in baseball right now. I like what the A's are cooking. https://t.co/Mq0ZlEOtuW
— Lucas M. (@theprospectprof) July 31, 2025
He will also almost definitely have a home park upgrade when he eventually gets to the majors. Petco Park is one of the least friendly hitter parks in the league, and although De Vries will likely not make the majors while the Athletics are playing in the band box in Sacramento, the stadium in Las Vegas will likely be a big upgrade.
There is generally a narrative around prospects that top prospects basically never get traded, and if one does, there's something wrong with them. If the De Vries owner in your league has any of these thoughts, especially as he does not have the most impressive surface stats, I'd be looking to trade for him.
De Vries is the only qualified 18-year-old hitter in High-A, and he's been an above league average hitter with a 116 WRC+ while showing a very solid plate approach. He's striking out less than 20 percent of the time while walking almost 14 percent of the time. He also has eight HRs and eight SBs. Just because he's not setting the world on fire doesn't mean he hasn't been very impressive.
On the Padres' side of the deal, I won't speculate too much about who will be the closer in San Diego. It's hard for me to believe that the Padres traded this much for Miller and won't use him as the closer, but Robert Suarez has been excellent for them this season and leads the majors in saves.
What I want to discuss about Mason Miller is the speculation by some that the Padres will look to stretch him out to become a starter next season. In theory, if he could become a front-end starter, that would make trading De Vries for him a lot more palatable.
I really do not love this idea. He showed some interesting potential in a short stint as a starter when he first got called to the majors in Oakland. However, I'm not super confident he will be a great starter, and I'm not confident at all that his body can hold up to being a major league starter. I would be cautious about looking to acquire him now or this offseason if you're hoping to see him become a starter.
The Mariners Win the Eugenio Suarez Sweepstakes
Full Trade: Mariners acquire Eugenio Suarez, Diamondbacks acquire Tyler Locklear, Hunter Cranton, and Juan Burgos
The Eugenio Suarez sweepstakes is finally over. It seems like the Diamondbacks may have overplayed their hand a little bit with him. Obviously, a lot of contenders were interested in adding his massive power to their lineup. However, it seems like the asking price was too high for the rental slugger, and they quickly lost suitor after suitor.
This led to him making his way back to Seattle. This is at least a slight downgrade for Suarez. His power will play anywhere, but Suarez, like many others, has struggled to hit in Seattle. His two seasons in Seattle were his only two seasons with a K-rate over 30 percent. Could he just be a better hitter now than he was two years ago? Maybe --- but it still has to be a slight ding to his value, at least in the short term.
The aspect of this deal that's interesting to me is that Locklear is going to Arizona. Locklear was having a fantastic season in Triple-A this season. He had a 136 WRC+ with 19 HRs and 18 SBs. He also has a very solid 21.9 percent K-rate and has been red hot of late.
Better news for Dbacks fans...
Tyler Locklear's July in AAA:
.422/.490/.807, 26 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB
... those are video game numbers folks.
— Neil Kucera (@NWKMF) July 31, 2025
With the Diamondbacks also trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, Locklear should have a relatively clear runway of playing time for the rest of this season. It's a little bit of a lazy comp considering he just played there but Locklear's profile reminds me a bit of Christian Walker. We'll see if he can match his production in Arizona.
The last component of this deal that is interesting for dynasty is that Jordan Lawlar should finally get a real opportunity to play regularly at the big league level. Lawlar has been one of the top prospects in fantasy for years but his shine has warn off a bit lately as he's really struggled in his short stints in the majors.
I've written about Lawlar extensively in my prospects to stash series and listed him as a dynasty trade target for rebuilders. There's still five category upside in the profile and this is a young player that just turned 23 and has three separate stints in Triple-A with a WRC+ above 136. Perhaps a clean runway of playing time will finally allow him to get to some of his potential at the major league level.
We Have a Bieber in Canada Again
Full Trade: Blue Jays acquire Shane Bieber, Guardians acquire Khal Stephen
This was a very quiet deadline in terms of major league starting pitching getting traded. Bieber was one of the biggest names moved in a pretty risky deal for the Blue Jays. He is returning from Tommy John Surgery and will likely pick up his player option for next season if he has any major setback, and enter free agency if he's healthy and not awful.
Bieber has been impressive in his rehab assignments so far, but we've seen many pitchers struggle recently in their return to the mound from Tommy John. While it may be a gamble worth taking for the Blue Jays and fantasy managers, I'm not allowing my expectations for Bieber to be too high for the rest of this season. I do think he will be better in future years if he doesn't have any major injury setbacks.
The Blue Jays also paid a pretty high price for Bieber. Stephen was their second-round draft pick in 2024 and has been excellent so far in his pro career. He has a 2.06 ERA with a 22.8 percent K-BB rate so far this season. However, most of this has been at Low-A and High-A, which he should dominate as a college draftee.
Khal Stephen (acquired by CLE) is a rapidly rising pitching prospect that has stormed through MiLB
He owns a sparkling 2.06 ERA across 91.2 IP which he backs up with a plus fastball, a wide array of secondaries, and solid command
This is an excellent get for Cleveland https://t.co/m0qtAnoFFV pic.twitter.com/2g6plLbpdY
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) July 31, 2025
Stephen is the type of arm that the Guardians have been able to take to the next level for years. He has a good all-around arsenal and command. He should also be a pretty fast mover and could make an impact late in 2026. I'd be buying after this move.
The Padres Empty their Prospect Cupboard for Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano
Full Trade: Padres acquire Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureno, Orioles acquire Boston Bateman, Cobb Hightower, Tyson Neighbors, Victor Figueroa, Brandon Butterworth, and Tanner Smith
The AJ Preller madman deadline did not end with the Mason Miller trade. He also seemingly pulled names out of a hat among his remaining minor leaguers to send to Baltimore for Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano.
Both guys are having very good offensive seasons and should still be solid in the Padres lineup, although they'll have a slight park downgrade in San Diego. The biggest fantasy implication here on the Padres' side might be that Gavin Sheets looks like the odd man out in terms of regular playing time.
What this deal means for Baltimore is a lot more interesting. These two trades, along with trading Cedric Mullins to the Mets, should open up playing time for a lot of their young players.
We have all been frustrated with how the Orioles have managed their young position players over the last few seasons, but they should all have more opportunity as this is a bit of a lost season for Baltimore. Coby Mayo should see more regular playing time, as should Heston Kjersted, Samuel Basallo, and Dylan Beavers.
I'm the most excited for Basallo and Beavers. Basallo is one of the best hitting prospects still in the minors. I've written about him for weeks in my prospects to stash series, and he was my number five non-debuted prospect in my July update. At only 20 years old, he has a 155 WRC+ with 20 HRs and a very solid hit tool.
Beavers has a 148 WRC+ with 14 HRs and 22 SBs while walking almost as much as he's striking out in Triple-A. Let's see what he can do in the majors, Baltimore.
The Orioles got a ton of prospects back from the Padres in this deal. The two I think are the most interesting are Boston Bateman and Victor Figueroa.
Bateman, the Padres' second-round pick in 2024, is a tall lefty prep arm with big stuff. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a solid slider. He's off to a decent start in his minor league career as he has a 4.08 ERA and 17.2 percent K-BB rate.
Figueroa is not ranked that high in real-life lists but has been a pretty big riser in fantasy circles. He's a little old for his level as a 21-year-old in Low-A, but he has raked so far this year with a 168 WRC+ between Low-A and the Complex. He has 12 HRs and a sub-20 percent K-rate. We'll see if the Orioles move him up quickly to see some more advanced pitching before the end of the season.
No, this actually isn’t Joc Pederson…it’s 21 year old Victor Figueroa in the Padres system!
Across multiple MiLB levels in ‘25: 177 wRC+ (3rd), .327 BA, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .630 SLG.
Making lots of noise. pic.twitter.com/vJ269YKR9E
— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) July 21, 2025
The Phillies Pay Up for Jhoan Duran
Full Trade: Phillies acquire Jhoan Duran, Twins acquire Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel
I won't say much about the Phillies' side of this deal since we know Duran is an awesome closer and the Phillies have been clamoring for a shutdown guy in the ninth. However, I'm really excited to see Duran's entrance in the playoffs- should be absolutely electric.
Chills. Grand Opening. Grand Closing. Can’t have a better Phillies debut than that from Duran.
— Kevin Negandhi (@KevinNegandhi) August 2, 2025
The Twins' side of this deal is more interesting from a dynasty perspective. Eduardo Tait is one of my favorite catching prospects in the minors. He is 18 years old and is showing big power. He has 11 HRs this season.
The 106 WRC+ does not stand out, but he's only striking out 18.1 percent of the time, which is impressive for a young guy with his power. Tait was my 46th-ranked non-debuted prospect in my July update.
Mick Abel has had a bit of an up-and-down minor league career. He had a lot of buzz early in his minor league career as he had big strikeout numbers in Low-A as a 19-year-old (34.9 percent). However, he's never had a K-rate above 28 percent at any level since then and has struggled with walks.
He was having a strong season at Triple-A with a 2.31 ERA and 16.1 percent K-BB rate. He has struggled in the majors other than his debut start against the Pirates, as he has a 5.04 ERA and 11.1 K-BB rate.
The Twins have a lot of young starters in the majors and upper minors that kind of resemble the meme of the record player with the sign "Does not work but could be fun to fix." Abel and another starter the Twins acquired, both of whom I'll talk about later, will join Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson in this group.
Rapid Fire Dynasty Thoughts on Three More Trades
Reds acquire Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates acquire Sammy Stafura and Taylor Rogers
Can the Reds actually get some offensive juice out of Hayes? His elite defense has kept him on the field, but he has struggled immensely at the plate throughout his career. I don't really believe in him developing much offensively, but it wouldn't be the first time a player breaks out offensively in Cincinnati.
Where is Sal Stewart going to play? I was so sure that the Reds were playing Noelvi Marte mostly in the outfield so Stewart could be their primary third baseman for the majority of next season. He has raked in the minors this season with a 147 WRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A, so this is annoying for those that were excited about him in dynasty.
Stafura is a decent young middle infield prospect for the Pirates to acquire. He has a really nice approach at the plate as he's walked over 15 percent of the time in each of his minor league seasons while not striking out too much.
Red Sox acquire Dustin May, Dodgers acquire James Tibbs III and Zach Ehrhard
This was kind of a weird one. May has not had the season the Dodgers were hoping for, and has had major injury issues in the past. He was likely going to be relegated to the bullpen in the near future as the Dodgers' rotation got healthier. I assume he'll start in Boston, and I don't see him getting much better there.
The Red Sox seemingly just gave up on Tibbs, who was considered the prized prospect in the Rafael Devers trade. He was great in High-A this season in the Giants org but really struggled in Double-A in the Red Sox org with a 78 WRC+ and 28.3 percent K-rate.
I think this is the Dodgers seeing Tibbs as a future trade chip after they help get his value back up a bit. The Dodgers' minor league outfields are loaded, and they have a handful of outfielders who I think are clearly better than him in their system already.
Rays acquire Griffin Jax, Twins acquire Taj Bradley
Bradley falls into the bucket of Twins upper minors/majors pitchers with potential that they're looking to fix, I referenced with Mick Abel. Bradley was once a prized pitching prospect for the Rays, but has been very inconsistent throughout his big league career and recently got sent to the minors by the Rays. The Twins do have a very clear success story of turning a Rays throwaway pitcher into a star with Joe Ryan. Could they do it again?
Jax is a very exciting relief pitcher for the Rays. On the surface, his 4.50 ERA is disappointing, but his ERA estimators are all great, most notably his 1.72 xFI,P and he has a 29.8 K-BB rate. The big question for Jax in Tampa is: Will they try to convert him into a starter?
There was some speculation that the Twins could be looking to convert him into a starter this past offseason, but that never came to fruition. You never know how a reliever transitioning to a starter will turn out, but I'm at least intrigued by the possibility of the Rays doing it with Jax.
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