X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Wells Fargo Championship Golf Advice (2023)

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Wells Fargo Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Wells Fargo Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

  • A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
  • The Wells Fargo Championship Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

  • Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
  • All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
  • Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
  • Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
  • Units: +311.229 Units
  • All Totals Are Entering 2023
  • Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

  • Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

First-Round Leader Article

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

  • 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
  • Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

  • We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

  • Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

 

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 16

 

Last Five Winners Of The Wells Fargo Championship

2022 Max Homa -8
2021 Rory McIlroy -10
2020 Covid Year
2019 Max Homa -15
2018 JASON DAY -12

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022 Held Somewhere Else
2021 3
2020 Covid
2019 2
2018 4

 

Quail Hollow

7,554 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

Designed in 1961 by George W. Cobb, the venue has seen three re-designs in the last 25 years, including a makeover that added extra distance to the facility before the 2017 PGA Championship. Those elements have helped generate one of the most challenging tests players will get on tour all season, although a few core concepts of the track are more heavily pronounced than others when trying to run a statistical model this weekend at Quail Hollow.

Tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways forge a methodical approach that reduces the driving accuracy by nearly eight yards, but don't let the numbers fool you when it comes to the correct procedure for trying to tackle this behemoth of a layout.

Distance and long iron play become the name of the game when you look at the 7,554-yard course that increases yardage off the tee by nearly 16 yards. That is one of the reasons the property features a 13.2% enhancement in projected approach shots from beyond 175 yards. You would expect that answer alone to cause the difficulty I keep touching on when producing chances to score. But it only becomes further heightened when we look into the lightning-quick Bermuda greens that add their own sinister nature to the proceedings.

It is one of the reasons we dip down almost four percent in anticipated GIR percentage. However, what gets quietly ignored is the hidden variable that comes into play on the back end of this answer for projected three-putt totals. Players will receive nearly a 25% intensification in that area over a typical stop on tour.

At the end of the day, golfers will find themselves in this constant battle of trying to attack a driver-heavy course while also being able to assail the lands from a distance on their second shots. It is why 10 holes this week will feature somewhere between a 20 to 35% percent bogey or worse rate, but it all comes down to finding the golfer that can excel with distance and long iron proximity from over 175+ yards. Adequate touch around the putting surface adds to that tee-to-green narrative, but all of those routes will increase your chance of finding success from a handicapping standpoint during this highly volatile and challenging test. 

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Quail Hollow PGA Average
Driving Distance 299 283
Driving Accuracy 53% 61%
GIR Percentage 61% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 54% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.71 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained T2G (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda + Three-Putt (10%)

 

Weighted Bermuda Putting + Total (10%)

 

SG: Total Average-To-Hard Scoring (10%)

 

SG: Total Long Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

  • Safest Play: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) - It is hard to poke too many holes into Rory McIlroy's history at the Wells Fargo Championship. Nine consecutive finishes inside the top 16 have been highlighted by eight top 10s and two victories since 2012. Those results alone will make him the man to beat, but it goes a lot further than a course history rundown for why he looks potentially under-owned, even at ownership of 15%+. McIlroy ranks first in my model for expected tee-to-green production and carries the best combination of distance and long iron proximity.
  • Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) 
  • Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($10,700) - The consensus throughout the industry will be that Xander Schauffele is overpriced this weekend at Quail Hollow. I don't necessarily disagree with that sentiment, but I expect we see this ownership drop to sub-10 percent when push comes to shove of everyone preferring all options over him in this range. Early returns haven't indicated that movement yet, but it would be surprising if he didn't go off as the lowest-owned option in this section. The upside is there for a victory.
  • Fade: None - But prefer Rory/Xander as playable choices.
  • Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) 

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

  • Safest Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,200) - Hovland has been scorching hot after producing 20 consecutive made cuts since last year's Scottish Open in July. That floor output getting added to a third-place finish here in 2021 during his only attempt helps explain why the Norweigan is the most popular golfer on the board for ownership. Let's see where that total goes over the next few days, but Hovland is a highly enticing cash-game play.
  • Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($9,100) - Sungjae popped in so many statistical portions of my model that I was surprised when I finished running the data for the week. No golfer graded inside the top 10 of my six categories more than he did (five), and the steady production in my sheet catapulted him to being the projected top scorer for weighted scoring. We finally get a chance to play Sungjae in the $9,000, which naturally should mean some reduction in ownership.
  • Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($9,100) 
  • Fade: Collin Morikawa ($9,800) -I am not the best evaluator of Morikawa since he makes my "fade list" weekly. It has burned me more than I can count, but my model always views him as a high-ceiling/low-floor golfer because the proximity masks some of the other issues. Essentially, the potential comes down to the putter, and I typically prefer to make him beat me when he trends into the $9,000 range and pushes top-10 ownership.
  • Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($9,100)

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

 

  • Safest Play: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500) - The profile isn't perfect with some of the weighted proximity returns we get from Hatton, but there is much to like about him from a fast Bermuda perspective. The Englishman ranks first in my model in strokes gained total on similar surfaces over his past 50 rounds, emphasized by a total driving return that also lands inside the top 10.
  • Most Upside: Cameron Young ($8,700) - I don't love the ownership, but let's cross that bridge in a few days. Outside of McIlroy, you aren't going to find many golfers in the world that can put together distance and proximity the way Young does weekly.
  • Favorite GPP Play: Tom Kim ($8,400) - It is the same answer that I always give. Nobody wants to play Kim, which creates leverage if you can stomach the lack of distance that he brings to the table. The price is a little high, but it isn't so off that we should be getting him at sub-five percent.
  • Fade: We will see as the week progresses
  • Most Likely Winner: Sam Burns ($8,600) - Bermuda Burns is trending in the right direction.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Everyone liked seeing some of the top names from the sheet, so here it is again!

Check out the model for all answers! There are too many players to discuss here today.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Go to the model to see where all players rank!

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Denzel Clarke

Athletics Promoting Denzel Clarke to Major Leagues
Jose Altuve

Homers Twice, Drives in Four in Win Over Seattle
Christian Yelich

Homers Twice, Drives in Four on Thursday
Logan Gilbert

Slated to Throw Sim Game Friday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Confirm Ronald Acuna Jr. Will Return Friday
Savion Williams

to be a Regular Contributor?
MarShawn Lloyd

Healthy and Without Restrictions
Colston Loveland

Still Sidelined With Shoulder Injury
Caleb Williams

Now Putting his Left Foot Forward
Jalin Hyatt

Favored for WR4 Role
Cam Skattebo

Battling for RB2 Role?
Greg Van Roten

has the Edge at Right Guard
Russell Wilson

Still Expected to be Week 1 Starter
Taysom Hill

Foster Moreau Skipping Offseason Program With Knee Injuries
Taylor Ward

Blasts Another Grand Slam
Gleyber Torres

Leaves Early on Thursday With Leg Discomfort
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Trending Toward Making 2025 Debut on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Scratched on Thursday
Miami Dolphins

Brett Gabbert Signed by Dolphins
Arizona Cardinals

Sean Murphy-Bunting to Miss 2025
CHI

Blackhawks Hire Jeff Blashill as Head Coach
Ronel Blanco

Going on Injured List With Elbow Injury
TOR

Brendan Shanahan Leaves Maple Leafs After 11 Years
Bowen Byram

Sabres Gauging Market for Bowen Byram
Nikolaj Ehlers

Jets Want to Lock Up Nikolaj Ehlers Long-Term
Frederik Andersen

Tries to Bounce Back in Game 2 Against Panthers
Mark Jankowski

Available Thursday
Gavin Sheets

Goes Deep Twice In Extra-Inning Loss in Toronto
Kendre Miller

Saints New Staff Giving Kendre Miller a "Blank Slate"
Carlos Correa

Expected to Return on Friday
Elijah Arroyo

Seahawks Impressed with Elijah Arroyo's Versatility
Rome Odunze

Ben Johnson "Extremely Impressed" with Rome Odunze
Spencer Rattler

Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler Sharing First-Team Reps at OTAs
Corey Seager

Won't Return for Another 7-10 Days
Chris Olave

Rashid Shaheed Look "Fully Recovered"
MLB

Red Sox-Orioles Game Postponed on Thursday
Abdul Carter

Giants Sign Abdul Carter To Rookie Deal
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers to Wait a "Little While Longer" for Aaron Rodgers
Jermaine Burton

Showing Maturity
Joe Burrow

Says he Feels Great Physically
Jalen Ramsey

Dolphins Not Close to a Trade of Jalen Ramsey
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Ends Goal Drought During Two-Point Night
Connor McDavid

Delivers Two Assists in Game 1 Loss
Leon Draisaitl

Opens Conference Finals with Three-Point Effort
Mikael Granlund

Plays Key Role in Comeback Win
Miro Heiskanen

Registers Two Power-Play Points in Game 1 Win
Tyler Seguin

Notches Three Points in Comeback Victory
Francisco Lindor

Homers and Swipes Two Bags on Wednesday
Daulton Varsho

Feels Grand in Toronto's Big Win
Logan O'Hoppe

Goes Yard Twice In Angels' Win
Nick Kurtz

Posts First Career Multi-Homer Game
OG Anunoby

Impactful at Both Ends Wednesday
Karl-Anthony Towns

Produces Big Double-Double in Losing Effort
Jalen Brunson

Racks Up 43 Points in Game 1 Loss Against Pacers
Pascal Siakam

Struggles From the Field in Game 1 Against Knicks
Aaron Nesmith

Puts Up 30 Points with Eight Triples Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

Leads Pacers to Comeback Victory in Game 1 Against Knicks
Jake Burger

Mashes Two Homers in Loss
Justin Verlander

Headed to 15-Day Injured List
Tylor Megill

Punches Out 10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Named NBA MVP
Gabriel Vilardi

Hopes to Land New Deal with Jets
Adam Lowry

Desperate to Remain in Winnipeg
Jalen Chatfield

Considered Day-to-Day
Stuart Skinner

Begins Conference Finals with High Expectations on Him
Mattias Ekholm

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Connor Brown

Iffy for Wednesday
Max Greyserman

Needs to Make More Birdies at Charles Schwab
Lucas Glover

Wants to Put PGA Championship Behind Him
Jhonattan Vegas

on a Roll Heading To Texas
Erik Van Rooyen

Erik van Rooyen a Coin Flip at Charles Schwab
Andrew Novak

Poised to Rebound from PGA Championship
Mac Meissner

Could Struggle Again at Charles Schwab
PGA

J.T. Poston is a Fine Play at Charles Schwab Challenge
Michael Kim

Slide Continues Heading Into Colonial
J.J. Spaun

a Boom-or-Bust Candidate at Colonial
Jordan Spieth

to Bounce Back at Charles Schwab Challenge
Aaron Rai

Offers High Upside at Colonial
Maverick McNealy

Has One Major Drawback at Charles Schwab Challenge
Keith Mitchell

Looking to Rebound at Colonial
Harry Hall

Bounces Back from Tough Time in Mexico
Scottie Scheffler

Takes Home First PGA Championship Title
Davis Riley

Finishes Tied for Second at PGA Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Misses Cut at PGA Championship
Jake Knapp

Misses Cut at PGA Championship
Tom Kim

Finishes 71st at PGA Championship
Tom Hoge

Misses Cut at PGA Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied for 41st at PGA Championship
Sebastian Aho

Stops Goal Drought Tuesday
Seth Jarvis

Extends Point Streak with Two Assists
Sergei Bobrovsky

Remains Sharp in Game 1 Against Hurricanes
Rudy Gobert

Anonymous in West Finals Opener
Anthony Edwards

Quiet in Game 1 Against Thunder
Julius Randle

Leads Timberwolves with 28 Points in Game 1 Loss
Chet Holmgren

Helps Out in All Areas Tuesday
Jalen Williams

Fills Stat Sheet in Tuesday's Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Scores Game-High 31 Points in Game 1 Win
Andrew Wiggins

' Future Uncertain in Miami
Jrue Holiday

Wants to Remain in Boston
Ty Jerome

Cavaliers Want to Keep Ty Jerome
Zion Williamson

Pelicans Want to "Make Things Work" with Zion Williamson
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Bucks "Hopeful" Giannis Antetokounmpo Won't Request Trade
Paul George

Potentially On The Move?
Gilbert Burns

Loses Fourth Fight in a Row
Michael Morales

Gets TKO Win At UFC Vegas 106
Sodiq Yusuff

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Mairon Santos

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Dustin Stoltzfus

Suffers Seventh Career Loss At UFC Vegas 106
Nursulton Ruziboev

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Julian Erosa

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 106
Melquizael Costa

Extends His Win Streak
Aaron Gordon

Finishes With Eight Points In Game 7
Jamal Murray

Has A Rough Afternoon On Sunday
Kyle Larson

Skipping All-Star Heat Race Should Be Good for DFS Place Differential Points
William Byron

Lack of Winning Speed and Good Starting Position Make Him a Poor DFS Option
Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing Speed Should Carry Chase Briscoe in All-Star Race
Alex Bowman

Consistent Loss of Positions Makes Him a Poor DFS Choice
Ross Chastain

Despite Mediocre Short Track Record, Ross Chastain Surprisingly Finished Second in Heat Race
Austin Cindric

Consistent Lack of Short Track Speed Means He'll Likely Struggle in All-Star Race
Daniel Suarez

Unexpected Trackhouse Speed May Make Daniel Suarez a Valid Option
Harrison Burton

For Harrison Burton, Making the All-Star Likely As Good As It Gets
Ryan Blaney

Is Worth Rostering For All-Star Tournament Lineups At North Wilkesboro
Joey Logano

What Should Fantasy Players Do With Joey Logano For The All-Star Race?
Tyler Reddick

Should Fantasy Players Roster Tyler Reddick For The All-Star Race?
Brad Keselowski

May Dominate The All-Star Race At North Wilkesboro
Chris Buescher

Could Pay Off For All-Star Race Tournament Lineups
Josh Berry

Is Josh Berry A Sneaky DFS Option For The All-Star Race?
Austin Dillon

Is An Intriguing DFS Option For The All-Star Race
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Could Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Be A Top DFS Bargain Value For The All-Star Race?
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF