DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Wells Fargo Championship Golf Advice (2023)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Wells Fargo Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Wells Fargo Championship Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 16

 

Last Five Winners Of The Wells Fargo Championship

2022	Max Homa	-8
2021	Rory McIlroy	-10
2020	Covid Year
2019	Max Homa	-15
2018	JASON DAY	-12

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	Held Somewhere Else
2021	3
2020	Covid
2019	2
2018	4

 

Quail Hollow

7,554 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

Designed in 1961 by George W. Cobb, the venue has seen three re-designs in the last 25 years, including a makeover that added extra distance to the facility before the 2017 PGA Championship. Those elements have helped generate one of the most challenging tests players will get on tour all season, although a few core concepts of the track are more heavily pronounced than others when trying to run a statistical model this weekend at Quail Hollow.

Tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways forge a methodical approach that reduces the driving accuracy by nearly eight yards, but don't let the numbers fool you when it comes to the correct procedure for trying to tackle this behemoth of a layout.

Distance and long iron play become the name of the game when you look at the 7,554-yard course that increases yardage off the tee by nearly 16 yards. That is one of the reasons the property features a 13.2% enhancement in projected approach shots from beyond 175 yards. You would expect that answer alone to cause the difficulty I keep touching on when producing chances to score. But it only becomes further heightened when we look into the lightning-quick Bermuda greens that add their own sinister nature to the proceedings.

It is one of the reasons we dip down almost four percent in anticipated GIR percentage. However, what gets quietly ignored is the hidden variable that comes into play on the back end of this answer for projected three-putt totals. Players will receive nearly a 25% intensification in that area over a typical stop on tour.

At the end of the day, golfers will find themselves in this constant battle of trying to attack a driver-heavy course while also being able to assail the lands from a distance on their second shots. It is why 10 holes this week will feature somewhere between a 20 to 35% percent bogey or worse rate, but it all comes down to finding the golfer that can excel with distance and long iron proximity from over 175+ yards. Adequate touch around the putting surface adds to that tee-to-green narrative, but all of those routes will increase your chance of finding success from a handicapping standpoint during this highly volatile and challenging test. 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Quail Hollow	PGA Average
Driving Distance	299	283
Driving Accuracy	53%	61%
GIR Percentage	61%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	54%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.71	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained T2G (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda + Three-Putt (10%)

 

Weighted Bermuda Putting + Total (10%)

 

SG: Total Average-To-Hard Scoring (10%)

 

SG: Total Long Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) - It is hard to poke too many holes into Rory McIlroy's history at the Wells Fargo Championship. Nine consecutive finishes inside the top 16 have been highlighted by eight top 10s and two victories since 2012. Those results alone will make him the man to beat, but it goes a lot further than a course history rundown for why he looks potentially under-owned, even at ownership of 15%+. McIlroy ranks first in my model for expected tee-to-green production and carries the best combination of distance and long iron proximity.
• Most Upside: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) 
• Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($10,700) - The consensus throughout the industry will be that Xander Schauffele is overpriced this weekend at Quail Hollow. I don't necessarily disagree with that sentiment, but I expect we see this ownership drop to sub-10 percent when push comes to shove of everyone preferring all options over him in this range. Early returns haven't indicated that movement yet, but it would be surprising if he didn't go off as the lowest-owned option in this section. The upside is there for a victory.
• Fade: None - But prefer Rory/Xander as playable choices.
• Most Likely Winner: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) 

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Viktor Hovland ($9,200) - Hovland has been scorching hot after producing 20 consecutive made cuts since last year's Scottish Open in July. That floor output getting added to a third-place finish here in 2021 during his only attempt helps explain why the Norweigan is the most popular golfer on the board for ownership. Let's see where that total goes over the next few days, but Hovland is a highly enticing cash-game play.
• Most Upside: Sungjae Im ($9,100) - Sungjae popped in so many statistical portions of my model that I was surprised when I finished running the data for the week. No golfer graded inside the top 10 of my six categories more than he did (five), and the steady production in my sheet catapulted him to being the projected top scorer for weighted scoring. We finally get a chance to play Sungjae in the $9,000, which naturally should mean some reduction in ownership.
• Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($9,100) 
• Fade: Collin Morikawa ($9,800) -I am not the best evaluator of Morikawa since he makes my "fade list" weekly. It has burned me more than I can count, but my model always views him as a high-ceiling/low-floor golfer because the proximity masks some of the other issues. Essentially, the potential comes down to the putter, and I typically prefer to make him beat me when he trends into the $9,000 range and pushes top-10 ownership.
• Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($9,100)

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

 

• Safest Play: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500) - The profile isn't perfect with some of the weighted proximity returns we get from Hatton, but there is much to like about him from a fast Bermuda perspective. The Englishman ranks first in my model in strokes gained total on similar surfaces over his past 50 rounds, emphasized by a total driving return that also lands inside the top 10.
• Most Upside: Cameron Young ($8,700) - I don't love the ownership, but let's cross that bridge in a few days. Outside of McIlroy, you aren't going to find many golfers in the world that can put together distance and proximity the way Young does weekly.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tom Kim ($8,400) - It is the same answer that I always give. Nobody wants to play Kim, which creates leverage if you can stomach the lack of distance that he brings to the table. The price is a little high, but it isn't so off that we should be getting him at sub-five percent.
• Fade: We will see as the week progresses
• Most Likely Winner: Sam Burns ($8,600) - Bermuda Burns is trending in the right direction.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Everyone liked seeing some of the top names from the sheet, so here it is again!

Check out the model for all answers! There are too many players to discuss here today.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Go to the model to see where all players rank!

 

 

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