DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Sanderson Farms Championship With Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger and More Golf Advice (2023)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sanderson Farms Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Sanderson Farms Championship 

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

 

Last Five Winners Of The Sanderson Farms Championship

2022	Mackenzie Hughes	-17
2021	Sam Burns	-22
2020	Sergio Garcia	-19
2019	Sebastián Muñoz	-18
2018	Cameron Champ	-21

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	-1
2021	-4
2020	-2
2019	-2
2018	0

 

Country Club of Jackson

7,461 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was recreated by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles you would expect out of one of his facilities. Players will be required to work the ball in both directions off the tee, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit their shots to the proper side of the fairway.

We see players hit the fairway here only 53% of the time, meaning a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go if you can position your first shot on the correct side of the land. Still, the peculiar nature of the layout comes down to this being a venue that highlights a five-hole stretch that diminishes most of the upside elsewhere and emphasizes the four par-fives and singular par-four 15th.

A staggering 47.5% of the winning score output has been created on the four par-five holes alone, and we get an additional 11.5% on that aforementioned par-four 15th that measures only 330 yards. That total of 59% of the projected allotment of production is notable since it means 27% of the holes will account for nearly 60% of the winning score, but it doesn't suggest other ranges won't still play of the utmost importance. Five holes have a 20% bogey or worse rate, so I don't mind diving deeper into par-four scoring from 450+ yards to account for that. However, we are essentially looking at the par-threes and lengthier par-four holes as the sections we want to avoid mistakes before attacking the more gettable locations.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	CC Jackson	PGA Average
Driving Distance	285	283
Driving Accuracy	53%	61%
GIR Percentage	68%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	61%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.53	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained: Fast Bermuda (10%)

 

Weighted Strokes Gained Easy Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Weighted Prox 100-150 (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Stephan Jaeger	25	0.3	7.5
Ben Grffin	55	0.13	7.15
Dylan Wu	66	0.11	7.26
Kevin Kisner	350	0.02	7

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

You can change the order in any direction you want, but these will likely be your four highest win equity candidates in any model you build this week.

A lot of the safety that comes into play for the entire group should be adequately accounted for when putting together your builds and will make multiple paths doable when trying to construct lineups. However, I will take a stand on a name at the Sanderson Farms and try to find myself higher than the general public regarding ownership. It doesn't mean I won't try to find a way to fit in the likes of Ludvig Aberg or Eric Cole, but let's dive a little deeper into why my model liked Stephan Jaeger as much as it did this week.

I have found myself on Jaeger frequently over the past six months because of his high-end ball-striking acumen. We see that with him gaining strokes off the tee in 10 of his past 12 and with his irons in seven of eight, but the biggest corollary to success may just come down to a putter that has started to show random outbursts of life. Those downside rounds and events are still there, with multiple occurrences of losing over three shots. Still, the fact that he has gained in six of his last nine tournaments is a stark contrast to the 10 straight tournaments of losing strokes with that portion of his game from the beginning to the middle of 2023.

The flat stick upside pops up a second time when you realize Jaeger experiences a 25-spot improvement on this specific fast Bermuda surface over his one-year baseline at any generic course on tour, making this a spot that resembles Theegala's projected proximity increase that he saw during the Fortinet. Sometimes, you just need your flaw to become a neutral factor at a venue that suits your game to get across the finish line, and that story looks to be present here.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am okay considering Keith Mitchell if you are looking for a GPP dart throw that is likely overpriced but has a massive ceiling potential. That is sort of the expectation around Mitchell recently since you never know what you will get from him round to round.

Sharp money has poured in on Beau Hossler early on Monday because of his distance and putting acumen that grades as a quality course fit from these par-four ranges. I don't know if I am going to get there when we look into his questionable irons that could run into some back-end issues. I would take my shot on Mitchell if directly comparing between the two, but I probably prefer taking a stand on the recently surging Doug Ghim over all else, who has made nine of his past 10 cuts.

Ghim has demonstrated a little lower of a career ceiling than you would hope to see on a golfer that is now priced in the $9,000 range, but seventh when recalculating all par-four holes and 15th for expected scoring from all 18 setups is a nice feather in his cap to keep the run going at a ball-striking course. 

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

It wouldn't be a fast Bermuda course if I didn't put myself in a position to get burned by Ben Griffin. The American graded second on this particular surface inside my model for the week, and while the overall iron play will leave a ton to be desired, the specific proximity range from 0-150 yards generated a 42-spot improvement over his baseline expectation. That range should receive roughly a 7.5% increase in shots for the week.

I also found intrigue around Davis Thompson's boom-or-bust style that could find success in a similar fashion to how Cameron Champ won here a few years ago. Thompson landed as the number one par-five scorer at a venue that should see a massive increase in scoring at five holes (four being at these par-five locations). I'd rather bet on that ceiling than some of these middling equity options around him. 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

We can dive deeper into this entire group during my 'Final DraftKings' article.

As of this moment, Alex 'Voldemort' Noren, Dylan Wu, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy would be my four favorite options to consider on DraftKings.

Wu was the only one to make my outright card because of his second-place weighted scoring grade, but I did highly consider Noren (what's new?) and Riley as options that barely missed as an outright for me. I'd consider Hardy better for cash and head-to-head bets because of the high floor grade, but all four are in play for DFS at the right ownership return.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

These are words you have rarely heard from me and may never hear again if this goes south...I like Kevin Kisner in a bounce-back spot here. I decided to take a shot with him in the outright mark at 350/1, although I probably would say his best usability stems inside a GPP or placement market.

Kisner experienced a nice expectation increase in proximity with the rise from 0-150 yards and historically ranked as a top 10 caliber option on a Donald Ross course. That long-term data can only go so far for a golfer going through every problem in the world, but there is something to be said about the 10th-place grade for expected weighted strokes gained total since I ran the information over only the past 10 months.  

 

 

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