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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on April 11, 2023. Brenton Kemp's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's Tuesday and we have a 10-game main MLB DFS slate on our hands at both DraftKings and FanDuel! It's going to be a busy day across Major League Baseball with games beginning at 6:10 PM ET, however, we're here to cover the main slate on both sites!
As a result, this 10-game slate locks at 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, April 11 beginning with the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays and going from there! Remember, feel free to give me a follow and hit me up on Twitter @BKemp17 with any comments, questions, or banter when it comes to these free MLB DFS picks!
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Let's get after it and come out on top tonight!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Alek Manoah, TOR vs. Detroit Tigers ($7,700 DK, $9,900 FD)
The Detroit Tigers were expected to struggle again this season and that has certainly been the case through nine games early in the year. The 2-7 Tigers sit dead last with a .250 wOBA on the young season while their 26.9% K% checks in at 29th with only the San Francisco Giants striking out at a higher clip to this point.
Of course, this bodes well for Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah who has a solid shot at providing the best value at DraftKings on this 10-game slate despite a wealth of high-end arms available. Manoah had a tough Opening Day outing against the Cardinals but bounced back with seven shutout innings while allowing just one hit in a win over the Royals his last time out. He walked four against just five strikeouts but, as noted, the punchout upside increases substantially against these Tigers bats.
There simply isn't much, if any, downside in plugging Manoah into your lineup on either site.
Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. Washington Nationals ($9,700 DK, $10,800 FD)
When it comes to paying the top-notch prices by pick of the elite litter is Shohei Ohtani despite both Jacob deGrom and Corb in Burnes taking part in this slate, among others. The matchup and strikeout upside is just too good to miss here.
Ohtani takes on a Nationals offense that sits 20th with a .318 wOBA early on and they've actually only struck out in 17.7% of their plate appearances as a club, the second-best mark in baseball next to the perfect Tampa Bay Rays. That being said, Ohtani always brings a ton of strikeout upside to the table on his own regardless of opponent.
All he's done so far on the mound in two starts is surrender just one earned run across 12 innings with 18 strikeouts in that time. Walks have been an early issue with seven of those as well, however with a career 8.5% BB% versus a 14.6% mark to this point in the young season there shouldn't be much concern about his control.
Add in a career 2.02 ERA and 32.5% K% at home versus a 3.91 ERA and 29.9% K% on the road and Ohtani should be able to provide plenty of value despite the top-tier pricing.
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($7,100 DK, $8,600 FD)
I would recommend Kelly as an SP2 candidate at DraftKings where he and Manoah could combine to turn in some fantastic value as a tandem.
Kelly doesn't bring a ton of strikeout upside to the table with a career 20.8% K%, but he's been a rock-solid pitcher in his career in his home park at Chase Field in Arizona. Kelly owns a 3.40 ERA and 22.8% K-rate at home in his career versus a 4.55 ERA and 18.8% K% on the road.
He also takes on a Brewers club that's whiffed plenty so far as their 25.9% K% on the season checking in as the league's seventh-worst K-rate while they've been solid at the plate with a .338 wOBA that's tied for eighth entering this one tonight.
Nonetheless, if it's value you seek at DraftKings have a look at Kelly as a cheap option pitching where he's at his best this evening.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corey Seager - SS, TEX vs. Jordan Lyles ($5,000 DK, $3,000 FD)
Corey Seager has been tearing the cover off the baseball this young season but didn't hit his first home run until last night, his 10th game of the season. It wasn't a terribly long drought but considering his underlying numbers he should have more than one long ball.
After all, Seager ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, 90th in hard-hit rate, and 89th in barrel rate. Despite the lack of power results, he's still hitting .324 with a 17.4% BB% versus a 15.2% K%. In other words, he's seeing the ball very well and making plenty of excellent contact when swinging.
This all improves when facing right-hander Jordan Lyles who has long had home run issues. Lyles owns a career 1.35 HR/9 and has allowed two homers in 11 innings so far this season, good for a 1.64 HR/9.
Don't be surprised to see Segaer play more long ball tonight.
Cal Raleigh - C, SEA vs. Hayden Wesneski ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD)
If we're going big on pitching we likely need some value at the plate and Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh should be able to deliver some of that this evening at Wrigley Field in Chicago.
Cubs youngster Hayden Wesneski yielded two homers in just 4 2/3 innings in his first start of the season in Cincinnati, posting an 8.54 FIP in that outing. He was solid with the Yankees Triple-A affiliate last season but also struggled to a 5.66 ERA in 20 2/3 innings upon a move to the Cubs Triple-A club.
Raleigh broke out with 27 home runs last season to lead all big-league catchers but has just one so far this season despite sitting in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate. The home runs will come with that type of contact.
His career .247 isolated power off righties is well above his .185 mark against lefties so let's see what he can do against a young pitcher who dished out a pair of long balls in his lone start of the season.
Matt Chapman - 3B, TOR vs. Matt Manning ($4,800 DK, $3,800 FD)
It's a battle of the Matts tonight in Toronto as Matt Chapman takes on Tigers right-hander Matt Manning in a park that should yield more offense and home runs this season after the Blue Jays changed up their outfield dimensions at the Rogers Centre this winter.
Chapman is another player who has hit the ball extremely hard this season. He owns an eye-popping 77.4% hard-hit rate and 35.5% barrel rate, both of which are obviously unsustainable numbers, as is his 1.323 OPS on the season. However, he also ranked in the league's 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and 88th in barrel rate just last season. Outside of the 2021 season, he's ranked in at least the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate each year since 2018.
As for Manning, he surrendered a pair of homers himself in his first start of the season across 5 2/3 innings. He hasn't yielded a ton of homers with a 0.99 HR/9 for his career but he was bitten early in this season.
Chapman will tail off at some point but he's red-hot right now and that bodes well for Opening Day in Toronto.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jake Fraley - OF, CIN vs. Kyle Wright ($4,500 DK, $2,900 FD)
I particularly like Jake Fraley on FanDuel as he takes on Braves righty Kyle Wright tonight in Atlanta.
Wright was excellent as he worked to a 3.19 ERA across 30 starts for the Braves last season but he dealt with shoulder issues this spring and allowed five runs on seven hits -- including a home run -- in a Triple-A tune-up start across six innings before being activated for tonight's contest. He was a little susceptible to the long ball in the minors on his way to the big leagues.
Fraley is off to an excellent start as he's hitting .320 with a homer and two doubles through eight games on the season. The lefty-swinging outfielder will almost strictly face righties as he owns a .201 isolated power and .809 OPS for his career against them while struggling mightily versus left-handed pitching.
He could jump on Wright early in this one tonight.
Trayce Thompson - OF, LAD (2,900 DK, $2,800 FD)
Here's another solid value look at Trayce Thompson as the Dodgers take on Giants left-hander Alex Wood.
While all three of Thompson's home runs on the season all came in the same game on April 1 against the D-backs, he's hit for a ton of power in his big-league career despite bouncing around. He owns a strong .220 ISO for his career and has 16 home runs across just 87 games since joining the Dodgers last season.
While he actually boasts fairly even splits for his career, there is a risk Thompson could be taken out of the game in exchange for James Outman when a right-handed pitcher enters this one. Thompson has made more than two trips to the plate just three times in seven games on the season.
That said, if you're willing to eat some risk, he could be a worthwhile investment at a low cost.
Daulton Varsho - OF, TOR ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD)
Daulton Varsho could hit right in front of Chapman in this contest with the Tigers tonight and he comes at a solid price, especially on DraftKings.
Acquired in a sizeable off-season trade from the D-backs, Varsho is hitting .306 with one homer, one steal, and an .853 OPS across 10 games to this point. He displayed an excellent combination of power and speed with 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases across 151 games with Arizona last season.
While Chapman remains an excellent option, Manning has yielded home runs to left-handed hitters more often than righties. The right-center field alley in Toronto improved a ton for left-handed hitters with the changes made this winter.
Give Varsho a good, solid look in the heart of the Blue Jays' lineup tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Manning
Obviously, the Jays appear to be a fine-looking stack option this evening with plenty of thunder up and down that lineup. The venue is favorable for hitters and the club's projected run total is the highest on the slate at 5.8.
Along with Chapman and Varsho, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also make sense. However, if you need cheaper exposure, you can also throw in Alejandro Kirk and Brendon Belt at much cheaper prices to complement some expensive pitching.
Either way, you might need a helmet if you're sitting in the outfield seats tonight in Toronto.
Texas Rangers vs. Jordan Lyles
If we're fading the Coors Field contest between the Cardinals and Rockies tonight let's hope on the Rangers after they exploded for 11 runs in last night's contest.
That should draw additional attention for this matchup but a cruising Texas offense should be able to touch up a pitcher in Lyles who, as noted, yields a plethora of home runs. That's what makes Seager my favorite hitter on this 10-game slate.
Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are two players I would absolutely slide in alongside Seager. At this point, it comes down to cost and position. Marcus Semien will hit leadoff and is an excellent look if affordable but I also don't mind the righty-mashing Brad Miller further down the lineup at a much cheaper price!
Good luck tonight, everyone!
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