Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 11

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 11. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 11 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 11. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 11 Picks

Ben Roethlisberger - PIT @ JAX ($6,700)

Since returning to the Steelers lineup this season, it initially appeared as though Big Ben's days of DFS relevance were behind him, as Pittsburgh appeared content to lean on the run and play defense. However, the veteran playcaller has pass-attempt totals of 46 and 42 in Pittsburgh's last two games, while starting RB James Conner has only 24 total carries over those two contests. This willingness to lean on the pass - despite great ground matchups against Dallas and Cincinnati - indicates a shift in offensive philosophy for Pittsburgh. We have to imagine that this offense will once again be happy to attack through the air this week against a Jags defense that is allowing the most yards per attempt (8.61) in the NFL to opposing QBs.

Jameis Winston / Taysom Hill - ATL @ NO ($5,900)

Jameis is gonna be a big topic of discussion this week, as he's set (we think) to fill in for the injured Drew Brees. There are plenty of unknowns surrounding Winston, but what we do know is that he's surrounded by some explosive weapons and draws a tremendous matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has consistently been a source of fantasy goodness for opposing offenses. Atlanta has allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the QB position and have also allowed opposing QBs to throw for an NFL-high 22 TDs through nine games. While Winston is notoriously mistake prone, he's also more than capable of posting a big outing against the Falcons...he passed for over 300 yards in 11 games last year for Tampa Bay and boasted an eye-popping aDOT of 10.7.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Perhaps the biggest news of the Week 11 slate is the uncertainty that surrounds the Saints QB situation. Most assumed that Jameis Winston would step in for Drew Brees, but several reports have stated that Taysom Hill will be the starter for New Orleans. At just $4.8k on DK (and $4.5k on FD at the TE position!), Hill would become one of the better values on the slate if that is indeed the case. The trouble is...we don't really know what's going to happen, as Sean Payton continues to be extremely coy about his true plan for Sunday. Using either Hill or Winston constitutes a gamble, but one that could pay dividends in GPPs.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 11 Picks

Dalvin Cook - DAL @ MIN ($9,000)

As we've touched on before in this article: sometimes a play can be both obvious and right. It feels as though that's where we are with Dalvin Cook this week. Cook has been on an absolute tear since returning from an injury in Week 8. He's toted the rock a hard-to-fathom 82 (!) times over Minnesota's last three, racking up 465 yards and five TDs on the ground in those games. Cook leads the NFL in both rushing TDs (12) and average rushing yards per game (119.3). He'll square off against a Cowboys Defense that's been a dumpster fire the entire season. Dallas is relinquishing a massive 4.79 yards per carry to opposing RBs and has allowed 1,139 yards rushing to the position, the second-most in the NFL.

Mike Davis - DET @ CAR ($6,800)

Mike Davis busted last week as the cheap chalk, posting just 8.4 DK points on 32 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards. Despite that very disappointing outing, there's reason to be optimistic about a Davis bounce-back week in this matchup against the Detroit Lions. While he faced perhaps the toughest RB matchup in the NFL last week in the Bucs, the matchup against the Lions is truly the polar opposite. Detroit ranks dead last in the league in DK points and rushing TDs allowed to opposing RBs, while also being routinely generous to the position through the air - the Lions have relinquished the most receiving TDs in the NFL to the RB position (5) - an area where Davis has thrived this season.

Kalen Ballage - NYJ @ LAC ($5,600)

The Chargers have endlessly cycled through running backs this season due to both injury and ineffectiveness, but it appears Kalen Ballage has now seized control of the job. Chargers HC Anthony Lynn confirmed as much this week, naming the third-year pro the "primary back" after Ballage posted a solid 102 yards on 23 total touches against Miami in Week 10. He should have no trouble paying off his price tag against a listless Jets Defense that's 25th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the RB position.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Detroit's D'Andre Swift has been ruled OUT. His absence opens the door for Adrian Peterson and/or Kerryon Johnson, who both come in at $4k. Unfortunately, the Lions coaching staff has been extremely difficult to trust when it comes to RB usage.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 11 Picks

Justin Jefferson - DAL @ MIN ($6,000) 

If you just wanted to keep things simple and "always target the Cowboys defense" this season, you would be doing very well. That's been especially true with WRs, as Dallas is allowing an average of 44.9 DK points per game to the position. Justin Jefferson is an explosive rookie that has a chance to seriously break the slate against this Cowboys secondary that will be without Trevon Diggs. Jefferson is coming off an eight-catch, 135-yard outing against Chicago in Week 10...his fourth game of the season with 100+ receiving yards.

Brandin Cooks - NE @ HOU ($5,200)

Brandin Cooks was highlighted in this article last week and, despite posting an underwhelming 9.9 DK points against Green Bay, I'm going right back to the well here. Cooks was put in a tough spot, as winds in Green Bay weren't at all conducive to passing the ball. Despite that, he was still targeted eight times...his fifth-straight game with eight or more targets. Cooks always feels a bit "boom or bust", but anytime we can grab cheap volume with upside, I'm going to remain very interested.

Jakobi Meyers - NE @ HOU ($4,900)

It's safe to say that the New England passing attack isn't exactly a juggernaut this season. The Patriots have been content to let Cam Newton manage games and grind things out on the ground. However, when Newton has put the ball in the air, he's been throwing to Jakobi Meyers. Like...a lot. Meyers has garnered targets on just over 40% of Newton's pass attempts over New England's last four games, totaling a ridiculous 37 targets since Week 7.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 11 Picks

Hayden Hurst - ATL @ NO ($4,400)

The TE position has been difficult almost every week this season and that theme continues in Week 11. Atlanta's Hayden Hurst hasn't posted the monster numbers that some hoped for when he came over from the Ravens this past offseason, but he's certainly been rock solid in his first campaign with the Falcons, which in a TE season like this, almost passes for spectacular. In addition to the good matchup against a Saints Defense that stands 26th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the TE position, we have to love the volume-driven floor that Hurst brings to the table. He's been targeted 22 times over Atlanta's last three, snagging 18 catches for 184 yards.

Eric Ebron - PIT @ JAX ($4,000)

As this Pittsburgh offense continues to lean pass heavy, Ebron's role has solidified. He's averaging 6.25 targets per game over Pittsburgh's last four, posting 15 catches for 158 yards and two TDs in that span. The matchup against the Bengals is intriguing, as Cincy ranks 30th in the NFL in both DK points and receiving yards allowed to the TE position.

More Weekly DFS Analysis