RADIO
We have a six-game slate on tap in the NBA tonight, which is typically my favorite sweet spot of games on a slate. However, this is shaping up to be one of the trickier slates this season, as we have a handful of stars and a group of important rotational pieces with questionable injury designations. Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards, Paul George, Tyler Herro, Darius Garland, Chris Paul, Gabe Vincent, and Luke Kennard make up the list of players we'll need to keep an eye on as the day moves along. I'll do my best to project out who will be in or out and make recommendations accordingly, but I don't have a crystal ball, and there will be surprises when lineups start getting announced. Let's get to it.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 1/8/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
D'Angelo Russell, vs. HOU (FD: $7,000, DK: $7,300) If Edwards sits
D'Lo plays 33-38 minutes in competitive games, and if Anthony Edwards gets ruled out tonight, he will be a great guard option at his mid-range pricing. Russell leads the team in usage rate (27.4%) and averages 1.00 FPTS/min with Edwards, Towns, and McLaughlin off the floor this season, and we have to bake in a little bump in his FPTS/min rate with the matchup he's gifted with tonight. The Rockets allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this year, and it's by a significant margin. They particularly struggle in the assists and three-pointers made categories, and those are areas where Russell can excel.
John Wall, vs. ATL (FD: $5,700, DK: $4,600) DraftKings only
It appears likely that Paul George will sit out his second straight game. Wall only played 26 minutes on Friday, but he put up 32.75 DK points to blow the 5x value mark out of the water at his low salary. We've seen this frequently happen this season as Wall's usage rate (29.4%) and FPTS/min (1.20) spike with PG13 off the floor, and he gets the bonus of facing a suspect Hawks' defense in a game with one of the higher implied totals on the board tonight. The Hawks allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams, and while they do rank well against point guards, Wall's rates without George and his low salary have me all over the former star as a value play on tonight's slate.
Also consider: Jaylen Nowell (if Edwards sits), Reggie Jackson, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Norman Powell, Josh Giddey, Spencer Dinwiddie (if Doncic sits), Desmond Bane (if Morant sits), Caris LeVert (if Mitchell sits), Jordan Clarkson
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Wood, vs. OKC (FD: $8,100, DK: $8,000) Core play if Doncic sits
Doncic is quoted as saying "we'll see" when asked about his availability for tonight's game, so we're going to move ahead with assuming he'll be sitting this one out. Dinwiddie feels like he should be the guy to get to in his absence, but he has been very hit-or-miss this season, and there's someone who sees his usage rate and production significantly spike with Doncic off the floor. You can probably guess who it is. Wood's usage (31.7%) and FPTS/min (1.86) with Doncic out is something I want to target, especially against a Thunder team that rolls out Mike Muscala, Jaylin Williams, and Darius Bazley in the frontcourt. They allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards and centers this season, and combining all of this with Wood's recent form (at least 40 DK points in six of his last seven games) make him a top play as long as Doncic sits.
Jaren Jackson Jr., vs. UTA (FD: $7,300, DK: $7,100)
Triple-J's salary is currently at a season-high, but we still need to get to him in a juicy matchup against the undersized frontcourt in Utah. Jackson Jr. produced 54.5 DK points on Thursday against the Magic, scoring 31 points with 10 rebounds, one assist, three blocks, and a steal. He put up 34.5, 32.75, and 44 DK points in the three prior games, so he's feeling it lately, and we want to keep riding the train until the wheels fall off. The Jazz defend power forwards well, but they allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. This is important because Steven Adams is questionable to play with an illness tonight. Jackson Jr. would slide over as the de-facto center if he were to sit, though Xavier Tillman would also see additional run at the position. According to my model, the Grizzlies are the top spot for DFS production on the slate, and I want all the JJJ I can handle tonight.
Jae'Sean Tate, vs. MIN (FD: $4,800, DK: $3,700) DraftKings GPP's only
Tate is a clear stay-away on FanDuel, but he's an intriguing piece at a near-minimum salary on DraftKings. He made his first appearance since late October on Thursday, and while his minutes were limited in his first game back, he finished with 21 DK points over 19 minutes to exceed 5x value. It's a tricky situation as we don't know what his minutes' cap is, but he's about a 1.00 FPTS/min player, and that's going to get the job done at his DK salary as long as he gets at least 20 minutes. The matchup against the shorthanded Timberwolves is great as they allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams. This game should be high-scoring, fast-paced, and competitive, so we'll probably see multiple players from this matchup emerge as top options on the slate.
Also consider: T.J. Warren, Darius Bazley, KJ Martin, Lu Dort, Kevin Durant, Lauri Markkanen
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Rudy Gobert, vs. HOU (FD: $7,600, DK: $6,900) DraftKings preferred
Gobert has wildly underperformed relative to expectations this season. That doesn't mean we have to avoid him in DFS every time he plays. He has come back to life with 54.25 and 44.5 DK points over his last two games, and he has a great chance to keep the streak going tonight against the hapless Rockets. His usage rate is always low, but his chances of hitting another ceiling game would increase if Anthony Edwards (Q) and/or Naz Reid (Q) were to be ruled out. The Rockets, surprisingly, defend the center position well and rank #1 in the NBA in rebound rate. However, they allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game and second-most blocks per game to opposing teams, so there is plenty of room for Gobert to keep doing his thing against Sengun and company tonight.
Also consider: Ivica Zubac, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
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