Drafting League-Winners In Rounds 1-8

4 years ago by Michael Florio

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9. More Fantasy Football Analysis

The term "league winner" is one that is too often thrown around in fantasy football. Often it is used without even being defined. To me, a league winner can be one of two things: a player that is highly drafted but is still so much better than the rest of the field. Think of Christian McCaffrey from 2019. He was a consensus top-three pick in drafts, but he still outscored all other backs by over 150 fantasy points.

A league winner can also be a late-round draft pick or waiver wire pickup that goes on to become one of the best at their positions. Lamar Jackson was certainly a league-winner last season. But you can put Austin Ekeler, DeVante Parker, D.J. Chark, Courtland Sutton, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller in that same group. These players may not finish atop their position, but anytime you find a top-15 player at their position and do so for cheap, those players certainly help determine who will win your league.

You can create your own definition for a league-winner if you want, but at the end of the day, we are all looking for the same thing. A player that can outlive his expected value so drastically, it changes the dynamic of your team and league. Finding these players make good teams great and make great teams into powerhouses. You can see why finding these players are so important. That is why I am on the hunt for the player with the highest league-winning upside in every single round. I will be using FFPC ADP to do so.

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Round 1

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

The first round is littered with high-end talent, which makes it tough to pick a league winner. We expect all of these players to be among the very best in the league, which means they would truly have to stand out above the pack to be a league winner. Christian McCaffrey was able to do it last season. He and Saquon Barkley are the consensus top-two picks off the board and felt too easy. Both are capable of lapping the field, but everyone knows that already.

Going deeper than the top two, the obvious candidate for me is Kamara. He has racked up 81 catches in each of the last three seasons – the only other RB to do so in that span is CMC. Plus, if you look at Kamara’s season from last year the only glaring difference is the touchdowns. He rushed for 56.9 yards per game, just two less than his career-high in 2018. His 95 scrimmage yards per game were a career-low, but they were only off his career-high by 11.

The biggest fall off efficiency-wise was in the passing game, as his 5.49 yards per target was a career-low. But, those concerns are mitigated by the fact that he was playing through multiple injuries. He missed Weeks 7 and 8 due to a knee and ankle injury and said he played at 75 percent through three injuries. He wasn’t the same after injuries and after scoring 32 touchdowns in his first two seasons combined, he scored just six. I am expecting big touchdown regression to hit him this season.

Kamara was a universal top-three pick last year and you can get him at a slight discount this season. I am all about taking him at pick three or later this season.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

Round 2

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)

I am really excited about Drake this season, but to be fair, I would have been excited about whoever was the Cardinals starting RB this season. Last season, Cardinals RBs averaged 0.75 fantasy points per touch, which was the second-most in the NFL behind only the Panthers (CMC). Cardinal backs also averaged 1.66 fantasy points per target, the ninth-best in the NFL.

Additionally, I know it was three different backs that did it, but each was an RB1 when given the starting gig. David Johnson was a bust last season, but in Weeks 1-6, before getting injured, he was averaging 20.22 fantasy PPG. He was the RB5 in that span. Chase Edmonds started Week 7 and scored 35 fantasy points, before getting injured in Week 8. Then it was Drake’s time and he was the RB4 in Weeks 9-17, while averaging 19.9 fantasy PPG. It didn’t matter who was the starter, Kliff Kingsbury showed to have a system that is fantasy-friendly for RBs.

Kingsbury showed last season that he likes to have a clear lead back. The Cards' top back played over 60 percent of the snaps every week and most weeks were above the 70 and even 80 percent threshold. Add in that the Cards now have DeAndre Hopkins and run four-wide receiver sets more than anyone. All that means is it will be harder to stack the box against Drake and the Cards. His upside as a member of this offense is matched by few and he should be going in the first round, so gobble up that second-round value!

Other league winning candidates in this round:

Round 3

Allen Robinson II (WR, CHI)

Allen Robinson is easily my favorite wide receiver value this season. Robinson finished last season as the WR8 in PPR leagues. He finished third in targets among wide receivers and I think he is a safe bet to finish among the top receivers in the league again this season. He also has next to no competition for targets with the Bears as he has Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen and not a whole lot else to worry about.

Robinson last season averaged 15.1 slot routes per game, which is big because Mitchell Trubisky was in the top-five in percent of throws to the slot. Nick Foles was second in 2018 in the league. Additionally, Foles may very well be the best QB Robinson has ever played with. I mean, let that sink in.

Also, per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, no WR had more success against man coverage than Robinson last season. He has the talent, the volume and a QB upgrade to not only be a top-10 WR again this season, but to be a top-five WR or higher. In fact, he is my WR5 this season.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Round 4

Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)

This was a hard round to decide between, but Ridley has a ceiling that is matched by few. Heading into 2019 there were plenty of mouths to feed between Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman out the backfield. But, Sanu was shipped to the Pats and replaced by Russell Gage.

Austin Hooper is gone and now replaced by Hayden Hurst. Freeman is cut and replaced by Gurley. We do not know for sure, but I think those departures are a net positive for Ridley. Here are the target and air yard share from Weeks 1-7, while the Falcons offense was fully intact.

Player	Target Share	Air Yard Share
Julio Jones	21%	33%
Calvin Ridley	15%	24%
Austin Hooper	19%	16%
Mohamed Sanu	14%	12%
Devonta Freeman	11%	1%

Here are the target and air yard share from Weeks 8 on:

Player	Target Share	Air Yard Share
Julio Jones	28%	41%
Calvin Ridley	19%	31%
Austin Hooper	16%	13%
Russell Gage	17%	14%
Devonta Freeman	12%	2%

This is not a perfect study, as Jones, Hooper and Freeman were banged up at times throughout the stretch from Week 8 on. But, as you see, the player with the biggest jump in air yard share was Ridley. He had the second-largest target share. I feel confident saying we know Ridley has the talent to take the next step forward in the NFL. The only concern I have had in previous years is his target share, due to the many mouths to feed. But this season, I think we can see him further build on that.

Will Hurst take over Hooper’s target share? Will Gurley take over Freeman’s? And will Gage take over Sanu’s? I am expecting one of those three (Hurst), but I think all three occurring is unlikely. I believe Ridley will see a career-high target and air yard share this season. A larger workload is the final piece of this puzzle, as he has the talent, QB and system to let him flourish. It’s becoming more popular, but Calvin Ridley is going to be this season’s version of Chris Godwin.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

Jonathan Taylor
A.J. Brown
Adam Thielen
Robert Woods (round 4 might be the best value round of all)

Round 5

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

I was banging the table for Tyler Lockett last year and here I am a year later doing the same thing. I do not think people realize just how great Lockett is as both a receiver and a fantasy weapon. Last year through the first nine weeks of the season, Lockett was the WR3. He was averaging 18.99 fantasy PPG. He showcased his ceiling by topping 30 fantasy points twice, including a 40-burger in those first nine games. His lowest total was 9.1 fantasy points, showing he has such a safe floor.

He was then injured during Week 10 and hospitalized. He did not miss any game action, but he was clearly not the same. From Weeks 11-17 he averaged just 9.73 fantasy PPG. He does have to compete with his teammate DK Metcalf for targets now, who I also considered as a potential league-winner, but Lockett and Russell Wilson have a rapport like no other. I truly believe they are the most efficient combo in the NFL.

Last year, Wilson had a passer rating of 124.7 when targeting Lockett (112.4 for Metcalf). In 2018, Wilson had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Lockett. All the rumors that the Seahawks might let Wilson throw the ball more doesn’t hurt either. I mean, they have the second-best passing QB in the NFL and run the ball like its 1985! More passes just mean a larger chance both Lockett and Metcalf can breakout!

Other league winning candidates in this round:

Round 6

Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)

This was the easiest round for me to select a potential league winner. Hunt has so much league winning upside it’s ridiculous. Last season he only played the final eight games for the Browns, but was hugely involved. Hunt averaged 12.68 fantasy PPG compared to Chubb’s 12.98. Hunt saw 44 targets in eight games, while Chubb saw 49 in 16 games.

These two backs are going to take away from one another when both are active. There is room for both to be fine fantasy assets, as the Browns brought in Kevin Stefanski and improved their unit upfront indicating that they want to be a run-heavy offense. But you can expect Hunt to be the third-down back, used in two-minute drills and maybe even used as the WR3 at times.

If either of these two were to go down, they have top-five RB upside. You need to pay close to full price for that upside with Chubb, but with Hunt, he is merely a sixth-round pick. At this point in the draft, you’d be hard-pressed to find another RB with more upside.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

Round 7

Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)

Marquise Brown was never healthy in 2019. He had screws put into his foot that forced him to miss the NFL combine and much of the preseason. He was limited at practice throughout the season. The timeline to remove the screws lined up with the start of the NFL season. So rather than missing most of his rookie year, he tried to play through it.

Brown said he had no burst and that he couldn’t even plant off his big toe. He said by the end of the year his foot was mangled and as we have seen before, when an athlete tries to play through an injury, they often times put added pressure on other parts of their bodies, and it leads to more injuries. With the screws out, Brown says he has that old speed and burst back which is a really scary thought.

We saw NFL corners struggle to keep up with him last season. In Week 1, he ran just eight routes but finished with 147 yards and two touchdowns. Add in the fact that the Ravens have the league’s best rushing attack, which will require stacked boxes to attempt to slow down Lamar Jackson and co on the ground. They also have Mark Andrews who will demand a lot of the defense's attention.

Why does all this matter? Because with defenders forced to focus on the others, Brown is likely to see a ton of one-on-one coverage. That is a really scary thought. Plus, I expect a healthy, second-year Brown to be used in a lot of creative ways by the Ravens. His big-play upside is matched by few and he has legit league wining upside as long as he can avoid injuries this season.

Other league winning candidates in this round:

A.J. Green
Derrius Guice
Ke'Shaun Vaughn

Round 8

Will Fuller V (WR, HOU)

In the past, I was off of Will Fuller because at best he was the second target, playing behind an absolute target vacuum in DeAndre Hopkins and struggled to stay on the field. Well this season, that volume hoover will be in the Arizona desert, meaning that Fuller at worst will be the number two target, likely competing with Brandin Cooks (Randall Cobb is also in the picture).

You do not need to worry about the injury history, because despite likely having a much larger workload, Fuller is still going later than he should because of the injury concerns. If not for those injury concerns I would expect Fuller to go in round five or six. But the upside is matched by few, if any, especially when you consider that he likely is going to see more targets than he ever has before.

In his 11 career games with eight-or-more targets he has averaged 21.34 fantasy PPG on 97.3 receiving yards per game. He averaged 156 air yards per game in those weeks. Fuller is a player that you will want in your lineup every week he is healthy. And, hear me out for a second, what if maybe, just maybe, he can stay healthy. League. Winner.

Other league winning candidates in this round: