Deeper Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 3

August 6, 2020

Matt Wallach outlines his favorite week 3 waiver wire pickups and adds for deep leagues, and AL-only or NL-only fantasy baseball leagues for the 2020 MLB season.

It is still the early portion of the season, where we still don't know enough about player performances to make a solid judgment, roles are still being figured out, and in some cases, teams are coming back from long layovers. It's definitely a crazy a season, but there is still some value to be found on the waiver wire.

This will be a look at players that are under 15% rostered in Yahoo leagues that are options to be considered in deeper leagues, or in the case of the Year of Coronaball, injury replacements with upside that have the possibility of sticking on rosters even beyond a few games or couple of weeks.

Without further ado, let's get into it.

Leury Garcia (2B/SS/OF, CWS)

13% Rostered, Recommended Move: Ride the hot streak

Talk about weird things happening in 2020, as not many would have expected Garcia, a career 76 wRC+ hitter, to currently be slashing .364/.417/.545, but here we are. Garcia will probably not be available in many deep leagues for the foreseeable future if he continues to hit like this, so the time to act is now. Multi-eligibility is nice, and he is extremely fast with sprint speed in the 89th percentile, he is for the moment, not just a deep stolen base option and is adding some more offense to his game.

It is unclear if he will keep this up, he is not hitting the ball super hard, but is pulling the ball more with a pull rate of 46.7% this season compared to 33.2% last season. This is an encouraging note, as pulling the ball generally nets better results and pulled don't need to go as far to clear the fence, and he should be able to get some extra-base hits with his plus speed, which would obviously be a benefit and increase his slugging percentage. He's far from a lock to keep things up, but there are bound to be some players who put up career years in a shortened season, and Garcia could very well be one of those guys. For fantasy purposes, deep-league managers should pick him up, and ride out this hot streak. He can always be dropped later if the performance starts to really slip.

Evan Longoria (3B, SF)

8% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add for the long haul 

At this stage of his career, Longoria is such a boring fantasy option but is the type of boring option that gets underlooked, as managers usually try to look for upside. Meanwhile, Longoria should produce quietly solid numbers while playing every day in the middle of the lineup. He is back from the injured list now and should do just that, and is the type of option that could be quite useful for deeper leagues.

While Longoria is far from the player he once was, he did quietly hit 20 home runs in just 129 games last season, and his Statcast metrics are encouraging, with a strong .507 xSLG, .363 xwOBA, and .434 xwOBA on contact, that are all well above the league average. He is in a tough division to hit in, except for Colorado, but he will get the playing time and should get quality counting stats. He is not going to blow anyone away, but for a player who is just 8% rostered,l and with dwindling options, deep-league managers could do a lot worse than Longoria.

Rio Ruiz (3B/1B, BAL)

5% Rostered, Recommended Move: Ride the hot streak 

Ruiz has gotten off to a hot start in 2020, posting a .318/.385/.727 triple slash, that definitely won't stick, but he is still doing some things well for an Orioles team that has looked better than expected so far.

For Ruiz, his average exit velocity so far this season has jumped to 90.5 miles-per-hour from 88.4 a season ago, and his average launch angle has jumped over four degrees to 15.9, as he is hitting fewer groundballs, at a rate all the down to 37.5%. He is hitting a lot more line drives, and hitting the ball extremely well, with a ridiculous barrel rate of 18.8% that currently places him in the 91st percentile. To go along with that, and also encouraging is that Ruiz's average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is 96.4 miles-per-hour, which places him 34th among 204 hitters with at least 25 plate appearances this season. He's not a sure thing to keep this hot start going, which is why managers should really only add and keep him for this hot stretch, and be ready to drop him if the performance drops, as the track record would indicate is likely. For now, ride out this nice start, and see what happens. Ruiz should have everyday playing time, or close to it, as even though he is a lefty, he has been in the lineup against two straight lefty pitchers, and should have a good amount of opportunities to drive in hitters in the middle of the Orioles lineup.

Alex Dickerson (OF, SF)

4% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add and stash for a couple of weeks

Dickerson has essentially been a straight platoon player this season, having just one plate appearance against a southpaw, but that does perhaps explain his hot start in 2020. Dickerson is off to a .308/.379/.654 start, which makes sense as he has been seeing almost exclusively right-handed pitching, which he feasted on in 2019. He has a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers last season with a .288/.345/.510 line.

So far this season, Dickerson is hitting the ball extremely well, with a 93.8 miles-per-hour average exit velocity mark, with ludicrous barrel and hard-hit rates at 20% and 50%, respectively. While regression will happen, the Giants are putting Dickerson into a strong position to succeed, and he is making the most of it. What is perhaps most encouraging about his profile, is that he doesn't hit many groundballs. For his career, Dickerson has hit just 36.3% of his batted balls on the ground, and this season he has done so at just a 30% rate, which is well below the 45.4% league average. This is a pretty good formula for success, and seeing only righties should help him maintain that success.

For fantasy purposes though, it doesn't give him much appeal since he won't be playing every day. Even with that being the case though, he should be rostered in more than 4% of leagues, as he should instead be playing most days, and should still have strong success, especially hitting in the top-third of the Giants lineup. In leagues that allow daily moves, Dickerson should be a great option, but even in weekly leagues, he can be streamed if the team is projected to face multiple righties, or even starting full time knowing that he should be playing at least four times a week.

Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM)

3% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add for the long haul 

One side effect of the most recent round of Mets drama, this time surrounding Yoenis Cespedes' decision to opt-out of the season is that more playing time should open up for Smith. Whether at the DH spot, the outfield, or first base, Smith getting more playing time should be a net-benefit for the Mets, who have had some trouble scoring runs early in the season.

Smith has started three games since the Cespedes decision, which is already a good sign, and has done well with a 139 wRC+ in a small sample this season. It remains to be seen if he will match his performance of 2019 with a .282/.355/.525 triple slash that would definitely play in fantasy baseball, even if he does regress a bit, he should still be a solid option in deep leagues. It remains to be seen how much power he ends up hitting for, as Statcast does suggest some regression from his .525 slugging percentage mark from 2019, with a .447 expected number, but Smith does get a good amount of lift on his batted-balls and doesn't put an excess amount on the ground, which could play well. He finally is going to get playing time, so it's as good a time as ever for managers to pick him up to see what he can do.

Bradley Zimmer (OF, CLE)

1% Rostered, Recommended Move: Add and stash for a few weeks 

We'll end with more of a speculative pick, this time in Bradley Zimmer. He's off to a fine start with a .250/.360/.400 slash line, but he isn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball. Instead, what makes Zimmer an attractive option for deep leagues is that he is finally fully healthy and getting a good amount of playing time. While he won't be an everyday player, due to his struggles against left-handed pitchers, the Cleveland outfield situation isn't too great and Zimmer will be in there pretty much against every right-handed pitcher.

For more added intrigue, Zimmer has been experimenting with a swing change that did look good in Summer Camp. Zimmer has shown flashes before, and with plus speed, these changes could be what it takes for him to finally display it for a longer stretch. For a player that is freely sitting around in the free-agent pools in 99% of leagues, it should be worth a speculative pickup in deep leagues. Managers don't need to add him and start him right away, but rather keep him on their bench and wait and see if he is able to get better results.

Looking Back on Last Week's Picks

At the end of each week's post, we'll end with a brief look back on the last week's picks along with a brief recommendation on what to do with the said player for the future.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR)

Last week: 11% rostered. This Week: 57% rostered. 

Hopefully, you bought into Hernandez last week because he likely isn't sitting available in free agency now after this recent hot stretch. The Blue Jays only played three games in the past week, but Teoscar still was productive, hitting two homers which gives him four on the season. His power is definitely real, and while he still is a little rough around the edges in the plate discipline department, Hernandez is still an extremely solid option. Hold him and don't let him go. Current Recommendation: Hold. 

Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/3B, WAS)

Last week: 11% rostered. This Week: 8% rostered. 

The Nats were also victims last week to the latest round of COVID-related postponements, so they only played three games in the past week as well. Cabrera was less productive in those three games, going just 2-14, but the reasons for rostering Cabrera are still there, as he is still in the lineup every day and hitting in the middle of that order. Juan Soto is back for the team as well, which adds some more beef, which should benefit him. Hold him for now. Current Recommendation: Hold.

Nico Hoerner (SS/2B, CHC)

Last week: 5% rostered. This week: 7% rostered. 

Hoerner's performance did drop in the last week, as he is just 3-15 in the last seven days, but he is still getting the majority of the playing, although Jason Kipnis is hitting extremely well right now. It is possible that the Cubs scale back his playing time if Kipnis stays hot, but it still does look like Hoerner's spot to lose right now. He is now with second base eligibility, as an added plus. If there's a better option available, it may be safe to drop him, but he can be held for now. Current Recommendation: Hold. 

Wilmer Flores (1B/2B, SF)

Last week: 2% rostered. This week: 8% rostered. 

Flores has done his job so far this season, hitting .316/.341/.500 and it is good to see his roster rates going up, as he deserves some positive recognition for his excellent performances. The bad news is that his days as an every day player may be over, with both Brandon Belt and the aforementioned Longoria being back from the injured list. Flores may be a platoon player yet again, as he has only been in the lineup three times in the last six games, two of those times coming against a left-handed starter. Playing time may be fluid all season for the Giants, so managers can hold for right now if they have that luxury to see if playing time sorts itself out, but feel free to drop if you need the more reliable roster spot. Current Recommendation: Hold. 

Maikel Franco (3B, KC)

Last week: 2% rostered. This week: 6% rostered. 

Franco had a bad week, going just 5-28, but he is a player who is extremely hot and cold, and he could easily go off on another run that got him consideration in the first place. It is still a positive that three of those five hits last week were doubles, but he still has yet to walk this season. He is droppable, but keep an eye on him. He is still locked into an everyday role so he could still be relevant a little later on. Current Recommendation: Drop. 

Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR) 

Last week: 1% rostered. This week: 1% rostered. 

Tellez is also a victim of COVID-related postponements, getting just 12 at-bats in the past seven days, and going 3-12 in that stretch. Tellez still has been in the lineup for the last five games that the Jays actually played, and that should still be the case going forward. He does have to play better though, as a lot of the Jays bats have struggled to start the season. If you've held him through Toronto's extended absence he should still be held, but I imagine a lot of managers have moved on. Same deal though as Franco, keep him on your watch list, as can go on a power surge and become quite useful. Current Recommendation: Drop. 

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