Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Dave Emerick's 10 Bold Predictions for 2019


I'll openly acknowledge that I don't really do bold predictions.

I sit, read, think, and then watch the players play. If I see something, maybe I'll write an article.

But in the spirit of fun, I've put together my own version of 10 Bold Predictions that will definitely, almost probably come to pass.

Editor's Note: Get our 2020 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our draft kit, premium rankings, player projections and outlooks, our top sleepers, dynasty and prospect rankings, 20 preseason and in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research and tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Paul DeJong is a top-ten shortstop and top-100 player

Here's my position: Your team would be better if you built your strategy around getting Paul DeJong at his current cost. Right now, no other player offers as much bankable profit as DeJong. Yes, there will be end-of-draft picks that return a greater profit, but none that you can count on as much as DeJong. DeJong is currently the 18th shortstop being drafted, but that's far below his actual value.

Last year, DeJong’s season was derailed by a broken hand after being hit by a pitch. He returned a week ahead of his earliest predicted date, and he stunk for a month. Remove that month, and you have a player who should be drafted in the first 100 picks. Here are DeJong’s career numbers without that month:

Now that DeJong has been elevated to either second or third in the lineup, he’ll have Paul Goldschmidt either immediately ahead of him or immediately behind. That should give DeJong 180 R+RBI alongside his 30 home runs. Those numbers would have made DeJong a top-80 player in 2018, but he’s currently being drafted at 180.

 

Miguel Andujar outproduces Vladimir Guerrero Jr, by a lot

Andujar and Guerrero should be flipped on ADP charts everywhere. Even with Vlad’s recent oblique injury, he’s still being taken 25 spots ahead of Andujar, whose ADP is currently 79. Not only does Andujar start the season with the advantage of having a secure and full-time position in the majors, but he also has one of the league’s best lineups to support his stat line.

Andujar already showed the ability to adjust mid-season, and he improved his strikeout rate in the second half. Even if Vlad gets healthy and is called up as soon as the Super-2 deadline passes, he’ll still have the growing pains of a rookie season and the Blue Jays’ lineup around him.

 

Patrick Corbin establishes himself as an elite starter

It’s been almost nine months since I changed my mind about Patrick Corbin and recommended him as a trade target. All he’s done since then is provide a 2.92 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 2.46 xFIP, an 11.1 K/9 rate, a 1.04 WHIP, and whopping 7.27 K/BB ratio, so you can say I'm feeling pretty good about jumping on that bandwagon. Despite his 2018 performance, he's still being ranked outside the top-20 starting pitchers. There’s just no pleasing some people.

If you’ve read my elite-pitchers series, you know I’m not using the term “elite” casually. In 2018, Corbin led qualified starters in swing-rate outside the zone; he was second in swinging-strike rate; his ground-ball rate was top-10; and he was fifth in K-BB%.

All of his peers on those lists are being selected in the first 30 picks. Corbin’s current ADP is 50. By the end of the season, the true believers will be singing Corbin's praises. The only thing that prevented Corbin from being a top-five pitcher last season was his win total. A season with the Nationals should rectify that.

 

The Dodgers’ pitching staff is good enough to carry your fantasy team

Every few seasons or so, there’s a pitching staff or an offense that is so good that a fantasy manager could win his league by only rostering those players. In this case, I’d probably swap out Clayton Kershaw for another top-10 pitcher.

After that, however, owners could draft the Dodgers’ rotation (Stripling and Urias included) plus another reliever and one more top-40 pitcher, and you’d have a rotation that looked something like this: Clayton Kershaw (ADP 46), Walker Buehler (ADP 39), Kenley Jansen (ADP 73), Rich Hill (ADP 166), Hyun-Jin Ryu (ADP 180), Kenta Maeda (ADP 208), Ross Stripling (ADP 214), and Julio Urias (ADP 275). You put those collective arms together, and you get the following Steamer Projection:

Now, if it were me, I’d probably skip Kershaw in favor Patrick Corbin, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton, or Patrick Corbin again. However, even if we stick with Kershaw, that’s a promising stat line for pitchers going in the 4th, 5th, 6th, 14th, 16th, 18th, 22nd rounds. Obviously, a manager would still need to fill in around the edges with at least another two closers, but it’s hard to ignore the value in the Dodgers’ rotation.

 

Joey Gallo hits .235 and is unjustly ignored as part of the MVP discussion

Luke Voit and others might think that batting average isn’t a thing anymore, but baseball’s traditions die hard. Just ask an NL fan about adopting the DH (don’t @ me). Even if Joey Gallo hits 45 home runs (he might), drives in 110 RBI (he could), and raises his OPS north of .900, Gallo still won’t get MVP votes for two reasons. The Rangers aren’t likely to make playoffs, and because batting average – like the $10 beer – is still a sacred thing in baseball.

I’m not suggesting Joey Gallo is going to rival Mike Trout and Mookie Betts for MVP production. However, the 25-year-old Gallo has some of the best batted-ball data in the league, and he showed inconsistent and modest approach changes last season. Gallo doesn’t need to reinvent himself to enter the Khris Davis range of performance. He just needs to reduce his strikeouts by a few more percentage points, and he’ll quickly become one of the game’s best bats.

 

Jose Leclerc challenges Edwin Diaz as the best closer in baseball

In private, I’ve been preaching the gospel of Jose LeClerc as the last elite closer on the draft board. LeClerc is available 30 picks after Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, and he doesn’t come with the same baggage as either of those players.

The major knocks against LeClerc are his blown saves and control issues. However, from the day LeClerc took over as the Rangers full-time closer, he didn’t blow a single save, and maintained a much stronger 3.00 B/99 and a 35.9 K-BB%. The only two pitchers with a better K-BB% were Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader.

 

Yordan Alvarez is up by the end of June and goes full Cody Bellinger

The subtitle for this one should be: “I’m out on Yuli Gurriel.” Tyler White should hold onto his job in Houston, but the Astros are competing right now, and adding Alvarez’s power and on-base skills will add immediate wins for them.

Alvarez isn’t necessarily an ultra-exciting prospect in the vein of Eloy Jimenez, Victor Robles, or the aforementioned Vlad Jr., but he is a strong candidate to provide an OPS over .800 in one of the league’s best lineups. Once he’s up Alvarez should become an immediate top-100 player.

 

Yasmani Grandal provides the best value at catcher

How many times does Yasmani Grandal have to tell you? He’s not old. He’s 30 years young and coming off the best offensive season in his career. He’s joining a strong offense in Milwaukee and will take advantage of the friendly confines of Miller Park.

In the debate of whether J.T. Realmuto is worth a top-50 pick or whether Gary Sanchez will rebound, Grandal is going at pick 128 and will again be one of the three most valuable catchers in fantasy. Do you know what you want in your catcher? Reliable, low-cost production. Check and check.

 

Jesse Winker hits 15 home runs, maintains a .400 OBP, and scores 110 runs

Here are the facts: Jesse Winker should lead off for the Cincinnati Reds this season. Jesse Winker has both objectively and subjectively excellent plate discipline. Last season Jesse Winker got on base at a .405 clip. The Cincinnati Reds have a very good offense. From this we can calculate the following:

 650 PAs * .415 OBP * (Joey Votto + Yasiel Puig + Eugenio Suarez)GA Park Factor = X

Where X = you should stop being such a rube and just draft Jesse Winker already

The Adalberto Mondesi ride is excruciating

Mondesi owners are going to be so invested in such a volatile asset that I’d compare the experience to owning Taijuan Walker or Francisco Liriano. Expect whiplash.

Unless Mondesi falls apart, he’ll likely return solid value, but his game logs from last season show a player whose chase rate and approach leave him vulnerable to extreme swings in performance. Mondesi might play well enough to justify his draft spot and hold his value for next year, but there will be owners who pull the cord after a bad stretch when Mondesi triggers traumatic memories of owning Javier Baez in 2016.

More Fantasy Baseball Predictions




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Conference Championships Matchups Analysis

Welcome to our NFL Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering both of the AFC and NFC contests from the Sunday slate, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries... Read More


Conference Championships Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Dynasty Players to Sell in 2020

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano share their top sell candidates for dynasty football leagues in the 2020 fantasy football preseason. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More


Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More