RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Collin Morikawa became the youngest golfer in PGA Tour history to break 65 in the final round of a major championship victory on Sunday in San Francisco. The 23-year-old connected on a series of clutch shots late, but it will be his drive on the par-four 16th that will go down in history after driving the green and connecting on a seven-foot eagle putt to essentially close the show.
While the achievement was sweet for anyone who backed Morikawa in the outright betting market at 35/1, it didn't necessarily spell DFS success, with nearly 28% percent of participants taking him in the 'Millionaire Maker.' That level of ownership made cashing without the now three-time PGA Tour winner very difficult, and it didn't even lock in a guarantee for those who owned him. It is one of the reasons why you always need to try to be contrarian in spots, even if you do go down the chalky road in other areas.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Wyndham Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
Wyndham Championship - PGA DFS Overview
Sedgefield Country Club
7,127 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
It might not feel as if we are one tournament away from the FedExCup playoffs beginning because of the delay in the season, but here we are with the last event before things ramp up again at the Northern Trust. Overall, the quality of the field will be exponentially subsided from what we just witnessed take place in San Francisco, but there are still some big names worth mentioning for the week. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose will lead the list of participants, and it will give any golfer outside the top-125 one last chance to book their ticket to Boston.
Sedgefield Country Club was designed by Donald Ross in 1926 but was re-modeled and toughened in 2007 by Kris Spence. The venue can be considered a straightforward par 70, measuring in at 7,127 yards and will reward plodders who can find the fairway off the tee. The greens are typical of a Ross design, featuring small surfaces and undulation throughout the property.
Eight of the par-fours measure between 400-450 yards and the two par-fives at the facility yielded an eagle rate of 6.2% and 3.8%, respectively. Birdie or better percentage will play a factor since the event routinely plays around 20-under par or better, and players who excel with wedges between the distance of 125-175 yards will be at an advantage over the field. Ball striking will play a heavy factor in determining who can create scoring opportunities, and we should place some emphasis on players who excel in finding fairways.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Sedgefield CC | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 280 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 60% |
| GIR Percentage | 71% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.69 | 0.53 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Webb Simpson and Brooks Koepka lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Patrick Reed at 16/1, Tommy Fleetwood at 18/1 and Paul Casey at 20/1. Your defending champion, J.T. Poston, falls further down the board at 60/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 20%
- Proximity 125-175 Yards 15%
- Weighted BOB % + Bogey Avoidance 15%
- Weighted Par-Four 400-500 Yards 15%
- Fast Bermuda L100 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Brooks Koepka ($11,400)
It was a heartbreaking Sunday for Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship, as the back-to-back winner of the event stumbled to a four-over 74 to fall into 29th place on Sunday. The narrative that the American only cares about winning majors will keep some off of him at his lofty $11,400 price tag on DraftKings, but there is a lot to like from a stylistic standpoint entering the week. Koepka posted a sixth-place result at the venue in 2015 and should be able to use his par-four scoring and Bermuda putting skills to find success once again.
Webb Simpson($11,200)
Webb Simpson has only finished outside 22nd place at Sedgefield Country Club once in his past 10 appearances, making him the most popular option by a substantial margin for the week. With all that being said, can we find any reasons to look elsewhere? Three straight top-three results at the venue mixed with a victory in 2011 won't make that task an easy one, but ownership sometimes causes alternate routes to be taken to avoid a cluster of similar builds. If you do decide to eat the chalk with Simpson, I would advise building an extremely contrarian lineup to go along with him. I'll most likely end up underweight because I'm never a fan of going down 20-plus percent ownership routes, but it is worth noting that longtime caddie Paul Tesori will still not be on his bag for the week. Simpson has posted results of 37th and 12th in the two prior showings without him, but I'd prefer to have all cylinders firing when paying $11,200 for a golfer that is going to yield the popularity that Simpson is projected to garner.
Patrick Reed ($10,700)
There is something to be said about saving $500 from Webb Simpson to Patrick Reed when you are also going to see a reduction of nearly half of the projected ownership. Reed made a frantic dash up the leaderboard late on Sunday at the PGA Championship to post a quiet 13th place result, and his overall quality of scoring should help him better his two 22nd place results at the venue since 2015. Reed is my preferred pivot away from Simpson, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the American walk out of North Carolina victorious.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500)
It is hard to be overly encouraged by what we have seen from Tommy Fleetwood in his three showings since the restart. Negative-2.3 strokes gained approach doesn't leave much room for encouragement that the Englishman is striking the ball well, and you could even argue that his 29th place result at the PGA Championship was nothing more than an outlier round that still only saw him gain 0.27 shots with his irons. I have a difficult time going down the path of Fleetwood until we see him turn things around, and it doesn't help that Bermuda has been his worst putting surface lately.
Paul Casey ($10,300)
Paul Casey draws the perfect combination here to jump back into being a $10,000 option for the week. A second-place result at the PGA Championship combined with two top-13 finishes at Sedgefield Country Club since 2015 places Casey in a spot of power, but should we forgive the past transgressions that saw from him of not posting a result better than 67th place in three events, which should even be questioned since that finish came in a no-cut field of fewer than 80 players? To answer this shortly, I am perfectly fine with the idea of going back to the Englishman for the week. His lack of win equity would drive me off him slightly in GPP contests, but there is enough there to warrant cash-game safety at a fair price tag.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Justin Rose ($9,900)
If we look at where Justin Rose has found the majority of his recent success, par-70 layouts take front and center. A third place at the Charles Schwab, 14th at the Heritage and ninth at the PGA Championship should highlight that point, but outcomes haven't always been ideal between those results. Rose has a GPP-winning upside, but it is hard to ignore his aberrational 7.1 strokes gained on the greens at Harding Park. Consider him a volatile option for the week.
Harris English ($9,300)
We get a massive decrease between Justin Rose to Harris English after Abraham Ancer was forced to withdraw from the tournament. English has provided four straight top-19 finishes, including an 11th place showing at Sedgefield Country Club in 2018, and even though the American will be one of the most popular options on the board, I am fine deploying him for battle.
Billy Horschel ($9,100)
It is an intriguing range between Harris English and Billy Horschel, as I have both guys underpriced throughout all spectrums of the market. As I mentioned for English, the loss of Abraham Ancer from this field will generate extra ownership to this small quadrant, but Horschel has the putting skills on Bermuda and current form to outperform his price.
Shane Lowry ($8,700)
DraftKings made it difficult to find much value on the board above $8,000. Some of it can be designated to proper pricing, and the rest is a factor of questionable options that don't bring as much win equity as it may appear. I have Shane Lowry adequately priced at the exact number he is currently located at for the week, but his upside for success does make him someone worth considering for GPP purposes. For reference sake, the only players above Lowry in price that are also showing up as DK values when I run my model for consistency would be Patrick Reed, Harris English and Billy Horschel.
Sergio Garcia ($8,500)
Sergio Garcia continued his struggles at the PGA Championship, posting back-to-back rounds of 73 en route to a missed weekend. In recent years, Garcia has proven that a PGA Championship layout doesn't seem to suit his game after failing to make the cut in five starts in a row, but Sedgefield's structure should be much more conducive for him to find fortune. Twenty-fourth here in 2018, the Spaniard is the best player in the field in total strokes gained tee to green.
Ryan Moore ($8,100)
One of the premier iron players in this field, Ryan Moore has gained 11.5 shots with his approach game over his past three events - a total he hasn't surpassed over a three-tournament stretch since the summer of 2018. Moore is going to be popular with his back-to-back 12th place finishes to go along with his consecutive top-25s at the venue, but it is challenging to find a reason to avoid the UNLV product in North Carolina.
Corey Conners ($8,000)
A poor Friday round ultimately cost Corey Conners a chance of playing Saturday and Sunday at the PGA Championship, but it might not be a negative that the Canadian didn't have to go through a grueling four days at a major championship venue. Conners should enter the week fresh, and I'd expect a quality effort out of him in all game types.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Joaquin Niemann ($7,900)
I'd be lying if I didn't say I had my concerns with Joaquin Niemann. The Chilean grades out fourth in my model when it just comes to stats, but his recent form has provided two missed cuts and a 52nd place finish during a no-cut event. Niemann is currently projected to garner over 15% ownership for the tournament, which will have me underweight to the field. I realize the 21-year-old is a minefield that I will need to avoid, but the explosion potential goes both ways.
Russell Henley ($7,700)
Russell Henley is ranked first over his past 24 rounds compared to the field in both strokes gained tee to green and approach, which explains the three top-37 finishes over his previous five tournaments. All of that should be viewed as a positive, but Henley is projected to be the fourth highest owned golfer on the DraftKings slate. If you want to use him, he preferably goes better in builds that don't involve Webb Simpson.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700)
If you are looking for a potential pivot away from Russell Henley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout comes in on my model less than one overall point less than Russell Henley when it comes to consistency. That total is enough to place him 12th overall compared to the field, and the heightened emphasis on approach and putting should even further stress his chances that he might be able to find his name on the leaderboard come Sunday.
Bud Cauley ($7,200)
Early in the week, Bud Cauley has gotten lost in the shuffle. I haven't heard many mentions of the Alabama product throughout the industry, which is surprising given his success at Sedgefield throughout his career. Cauley brings with him three made cuts in a row, but it does remain a question mark if the American will be able to produce enough birdies to actually win the event? Thankfully, however, Cauley won't need to generate upside that high at $7,200 to pay for himself.
Sepp Straka ($7,100)
We once again get an underpriced Sepp Straka on DraftKings. His 45th place ranking in salary is 16 places lower than his outright standing of 29th overall, and it is confusing to understand why we continue to see this story play out when Straka has produced five straight made cuts, which includes three top-18 results.
Pat Perez ($6,900)
I'd take this statistic with a grain of salt because many of the players who played Memorial and/or Harding Park were wiped off the map, but Pat Perez leads the field in consecutive rounds of par or better at 13 overall. His missed cut here in 2019 should keep his ownership total decreased, and the 44-year-old might have one last shining moment if he can get hot with his putter.
Kyle Stanley ($6,800)
Anytime we get a ball-striking course that rewards mid-iron play, Kyle Stanley is a name that should come to mind as a sleeper. The 32-year-old is ranked second compared to the field in proximity between 125-175 yards, but it is worth noting that fast Bermuda greens have always caused the American issues. Two top-14 results here in his last three tries is encouraging for a golfer projected to be owned under seven percent, and it doesn't hurt that he has some of the best upside under the $7,000 threshold.
Adam Schenk ($6,700)
I believe we have a case here where Adam Schenk's two missed cuts at the Wyndham Championship are being too negatively weighted into his price tag. Schenk's first missed cut in 2018 came on the heels of a run that had seen him miss seven of nine cuts in a row, and while 2019s failed venture is a little more alarming because his form mimics that of 2020, Schenk has taken some massive strides with his game over the past few months. The 204th-ranked player in the world has made five of seven cuts since the restart and nearly was able to take down the Barracuda Championship before slipping on the weekend during his previous contest.
Cameron Percy ($6,200)
Cameron Percy has been far from steady so far in 2020, but the 46-year-old ranks as the biggest disparity between actual pricing and projected rank in my model. Percy has produced three top-38 finishes at the venue in his past four tries, and he enters the week ranked eighth in strokes gained approach compared to the field.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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