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Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of pitchers Tyson Ross and Mike Soroka to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
Few feelings in fantasy baseball are worse than staring at an ugly team ERA and a waiver wire full of question marks. You think you have to do something, but you don't want to compromise your offense to do it or dig a bigger hole with the wrong streamers. In this situation, you need to be open to any lifeboat available to you.
Highly-touted prospects such as Mike Soroka may seem like the salve you're searching for, but there is no guarantee that the 20-year old can sustain his initial MLB success. You might be better off investing in 31-year old Tyson Ross, who the Padres have revived with some sort of necromancy. Of course, there's risk in his profile as well.
Both arms are detailed below so that you can make an informed decision about the future of your fantasy squad.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Tyson Ross (SP, SD) 39% Owned
After throwing a whopping six innings in 2016 and 79 1/3 in 2017, Ross is back in a big league rotation. He appears to have recaptured his old form, boasting a solid ERA (3.28) backed by a virtually identical xFIP (3.23). He also has the Ks fantasy owners crave (27% K%) after walking more (15.6% BB%) than he struck out (15.1% K%) in 2017.
The reason for Ross's resurgence (besides health) is a lot more slider usage. He used it 33.4% of the time last year, but has upped that to 46.3% so far in 2018. It's long been his best pitch, as its underlying peripherals (17.7% SwStr%, 41.7% chase rate, 42.4% Zone%) are actually a shade short of his career averages (21% SwStr%, 44% chase, 42.5% Zone% career). Peak Ross lived and died by his slider, and the current Ross is doing the same.
Ross has decreased his reliance on his sinker (20.5% in 2017 to 9.7% this year), but it's his second best pitch. It's terrible for strikeouts (1.7% SwStr% this year), but generates a ton of weak contact on the ground (62.5% GB% this year, 66.6% career). Its spin rate is very high (2,519 RPM), but it performs as a low-spin offering. Statcast can measure "useless spin" that doesn't do anything to batted balls, and it appears likely that Ross has a lot of it.
Ross should be shelving his 4-seamer instead. It also boasts strong spin rates (2,532 RPM this year, 2,544 in 2017) but has never produced the strikeout numbers (4.8% career SwStr%) or pop-up rates (34.1% career FB%, 26.8% IFFB%) you would expect from a high-spin heater. You'd think it could at least get called strikes to set up the slider, but its 41.3% Zone% this year isn't even doing that. His sinker's 47.5% Zone% isn't great either, but it is the second highest in Ross's arsenal.
Ross's cutter lives in the strike zone (60.5% Zone%), but he only throws it 7% of the time. It's great for Ks compared to his other two fastballs (7% SwStr%), but he likely lacks the confidence to use it as anything more than a show-me pitch. As a result, every pitch Ross throws is more likely to be a ball than a strike.
That might seem like a problem, but Ross can throw a strike when he wants or needs to. His overall Zone% is virtually unchanged relative to last year (39.1% vs. 38.3% this year), but his F-Strike% is way higher (46.2% vs. 58.1%). Ross needs to nibble around the zone, so his 8.8% BB% is unlikely to improve much moving forward. It shouldn't get worse either.
Ross appears to have overcome his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but should still be considered an injury risk moving forward. He's really a one-pitch pitcher, but it's probably good enough to put up solid fantasy numbers until he breaks down again. He won't provide many wins on the Padres, but they provide a great place to pitch (95 runs factor over the past five seasons). He should remain fantasy-viable as long as he's healthy.
Verdict: Champ
Mike Soroka (SP, ATL) 49% Owned
This 20-year old had a successful debut in the major leagues, tossing six innings and allowing a run on six hits with five strikeouts and zero walks. He looked great in a brief 22 2/3 IP sample at Triple-A Gwinnett before his MLB debut (1.99 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, 27.6% K%, 5.8% BB%), but his numbers at Double-A Mississippi last year (2.75 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 19.9% K%, 5.4% BB%) were much more pedestrian in a larger sample size (153 2/3 IP).
Soroka's ERA at Double-A looks solid, but Mississippi is an extreme pitcher's park. It suppresses overall run scoring (0.877 runs ballpark factor) by crippling power hitters (0.554 HR factor) while simultaneously limiting BABIP (0.948 hits factor). Soroka's 6.8% HR/FB and .275 BABIP allowed look league average in this context, suggesting that he wasn't quite as good as his numbers indicate.
Gwinnett favors pitchers too, but not to the same degree (0.975 runs factor, 0.885 HR factor, 1.012 hits factor). The spike in K% is encouraging, especially since Soroka is young enough to get significantly better in a short time frame.
A close analysis of his repertoire reveals that his Double-A performance is likely more representative of where Soroka is in his development, however. His big league debut saw him throw four different pitches: a sinker, fastball, slider, and change. He only used the change four times, so it's a pure show-me pitch. That leaves three pitches for our consideration.
Soroka has velocity behind both of his fastballs, with the sinker averaging 94.1 mph in his first start while the 4-seamer was 94.3 mph. The sinker managed an elite 13.2% SwStr% in his debut game, but wasn't really used like a fastball. Its 42.1% Zone% was below average, relying on a 54.6% chase rate to advance Soroka's cause. Sinkers are never chased outside of the zone that often, making its debut performance look like a fluke.
Soroka's straight heater flashed spin rate upside, averaging 2,461 RPM to compliment its velocity. It earned plenty of whiffs (18.2% SwStr%) despite a high Zone% (54.6% Zone%), making it a very promising pitch. Unfortunately, Soroka threw more sinkers (38) than 4-seamers (22), suggesting that he still needs to learn how to best use his repertoire.
Soroka's slider looked predictable, as its 12.5% SwStr% was very low for a pitch chased outside of the zone 66.7% of the time. It's probably supposed to be Soroka's put away pitch, but it displayed little ability to do so at the big league level in its first opportunity.
Soroka's success in the Upper Minors and promising spin rates suggest a very bright future, but it seems likely that he'll experience growing pains as he reaches toward it. His next scheduled start is against the terrible San Francisco Giants, so feel free to stream him for that one. He's not guaranteed anything after that though, especially if the Braves want to monkey around with his service clock. Overall, betting your fantasy season on him seems like a risky proposition.
Verdict: Chump
