ADP Champ or Chump: Mike Minor

How will the shortened MLB season impact the fantasy game? This question is foremost on many owners' minds, and one of the most common responses has been to value workhorse pitchers who rack up decisions more highly. Owners are encouraged to draft studs like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, but realistically you won't be able... Read More

Overvalued and Undervalued Shortstops in 2020

In the last few seasons, the shortstop position has improved tremendously with the emergence of All-Stars like Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, and Trevor Story. The position has four potential first-round picks, and a staggering ten picks in the top 40 according to NFBC. By comparison, second base and third base have five players each in... Read More

Infielders Ready to Break Out Late

Finding value is crucial on draft day and finding just one or two players later in drafts that provide better numbers than projected can give you a significant edge on the competition as you bid for fantasy glory. All too often, we look for the new shiny object in drafts thinking they’ll come up to... Read More

ADP Champ or Chump: Seth Lugo

Using a reliever to improve your fantasy squad's ratios has become a trendy strategy, but this author doesn't really get the hype. Sure, it's great if you correctly identify which middle reliever will suddenly morph into a strikeout stud with a microscopic ERA, but it seems like the kind of strategy that requires hindsight to... Read More

2020 Rookie Breakouts - September Surgers

Prior to the 2020 rule change that limits September rosters to just 28 players, it was the time of the year where there would be a lot of rookies making their debuts, getting their feet wet, and experiencing Major League pitching for the first time. Whatever you may have thought about this rule, it was... Read More

Does James Paxton's Spin-Rate Adjustment Matter?

Players frequently enter spring training in, "the best shape of their lives," but offseason programs rarely seem to pay significant dividends. The extended offseason may have provided some players with the opportunity to make unusually significant adjustments this year, though. One example of such an adjustment is Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton, who recently announced that... Read More

Stock Your Dynasty Farm: AL West Sleeper Prospects

If you've been following my series on sleeper prospects, you probably correctly noted that there are actually more than the four divisions I've already written about. Who knew?! No worries Rotoballers, a six-week gap isn't enough to keep me from tucking my tail firmly between my legs and returning to finish what we started. I... Read More

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Underachievers with SIERA (Part 2)

Welcome back RotoBallers to my Lie Detector mini-series (you can read part one here). Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin... Read More

Major League Baseball 2020 Mock Draft

The 2020 MLB amateur draft takes place later tonight and it will be unlike any draft we’ve seen. With owners crying poor and minor league systems set to be permanently compressed, the draft has been slashed from the normal 40 rounds to just five — although teams will be able to sign undrafted players as... Read More

Point League Busts - Players to Fade

Points leagues can be a whole different ball game from your average roto leagues. When prepping for a points league, whether you're looking at ADP or online rankings, you're likely looking at data that is skewed by standard roto leagues. While it's good as a general starting point, some players simply perform better in one... Read More

Los Angeles Angels: Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

The Los Angeles Angels will be our next stop on the farm to evaluate the best prospects on each MLB team. Once the 2020 MLB season begins, it may turn out that Minor League systems will be more important than usual. Franchises are losing money during the pandemic layoff, so many teams will be looking... Read More

Diving Into Pitch Counts For a Shortened Season

Pitchers who produce a ton of innings are a rare commodity in today’s game, with those who consistently put up 200 or more innings becoming increasingly valuable. However, with a potential shortened 2020 season and no innings limits, will this playing field be leveled? At first thought, one might think that pitchers with assumed limits... Read More

How to Approach MLB Rookies in 2020 Re-draft Leagues

While the players and owners continue to trade demands for getting the 2020 season on its feet, we're going to turn our attention to fantasy. This article will specifically look at players who have yet to make their major league debut (or come up for more than the proverbial cup of coffee) and how fantasy... Read More

Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: More Insights From an MLB Scout

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with more takes from a longtime Major League scout. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others... Read More

Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers - Head-Scratching Trends?

Welcome to Part Two of the ADP Risers and Fallers series, where I will examine key changes from March to the present day. If you missed Part One, where I evaluated injured players and prospects, you can read it right here. Those were the easy risers and fallers. In this article, we will delve into... Read More

Eliminating Park Factors: Hitters That Will Suffer Most

While optimism continues to grow surrounding the likelihood we will have baseball in 2020, there are still a few hurdles to clear, and plenty of unknowns regarding the parameters. While the universal DH seems like a near-certainty at this point, other important factors- like how many games will be played and where they will take... Read More

Overvalued and Undervalued Starting Pitchers

Spring training is often the time when players start climbing up or freefalling down draft boards. This year, however, without a full spring training to draw from, there is less talk of a pitcher with a new and improved change-up, and fewer managers blowing smoke, influencing fantasy owners. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of value... Read More

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 2)

Welcome back RotoBallers to my Lie Detector mini-series (you can read part one here). Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin... Read More

2020 Starting Pitcher Breakouts - National League

Fantasy baseball players spent much of this unique offseason speculating about the game they love. When is baseball coming back? What rule changes will be implemented and how will they affect the fantasy production of players selected in preseason drafts? Some of you may have drafted a bunch of teams this past winter and might... Read More

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 ERA Underachievers With SIERA

Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA, albeit in a different manner. Although technically a backward-looking evaluator,  SIERA... Read More

How to Approach High Stakes Leagues in 2020, Part 2

While we await confirmation that there will be a season, and clarity on how it will play out, there's plenty of fantasy baseball prep work to do. Sure, it's impossible to nail down definite strategies or exact player values with so much uncertainty surrounding the season. But we can at least start to figure out... Read More

Hidden Gems to Watch - 2020 Pitching Prospects

As we continue through this window of uncertainty, the chances of having a “normal” season are getting far less likely. And while we still don’t have any concrete solutions for having a 2020 season, some ideas seem to be more likely than others. Whether implementing regular doubleheaders in a truncated season or a universal designated-hitter,... Read More

Eliminating Park Factors: Which Hitters Will Benefit Most

As Major League Baseball seeks a way to open the season in early July, one proposal has teams starting or playing the entire season in warm-weather locations (Arizona and Florida) or hub cities. That leaves fantasy managers to re-evaluate hitters whose parks impact their performance and value. For hitters, it’s primarily a matter of considering... Read More

Mock Draft Review: ADP Risers and Fallers

It's Memorial Day weekend, which means it's time to pick some flowers, fire up the BBQ, and do fantasy baseball mock drafts. Well, one of those things doesn't quite belong, but in these uncertain times, it's never a bad idea to do another draft and see how things stand. With MLB owners and the Player's... Read More

ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 1)

Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA, albeit in a different manner. Although technically a backward-looking evaluator,  SIERA... Read More

Later-Round WHIP Warriors

Every season, fantasy owners across head-to-head leagues are faced with a tough decision on draft day. Do they load up on crummy starting pitchers at the end of the draft to amass wins and strikeouts? Or do they opt to only roster good starters and spend late-round draft picks on relievers to help with ERA... Read More

Hitters Ready To Break Out Late

Depending on the chosen method of understanding performance declines by age, MLB hitters generally start to decline sometime between the time they turn 28 and 30. Nevertheless, some players can have their best seasons after what is typically a hitter’s peak years. Since many of these hitters have had underwhelming careers before their breakout seasons,... Read More

Deeper Draft Sleepers - Shortstop

In shallow or even standard fantasy baseball leagues, there is a common tenet that the end of drafts is for taking chances. Since there is normally not much difference between a player that gets selected at the end of a draft and a player who is left for waivers, taking a large, figurative swing on... Read More

Three Hitters Ready to Breakout Earlier Than Their Prime

The quickest path to a fantasy championship is to identify and select potential breakouts. The challenge with this approach is that usually such players are hyped to the point where their ADP becomes inflated. This increases their risk, because often their new ADP has an assumed breakout baked into the cost.  This is why it’s... Read More