Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft For Non-Superflex Leagues

May 17, 2024

Chris Gregory goes over a fantasy football dynasty rookie mock draft for the 2024 NFL season. Which rookies will make the biggest impact and where should you draft them?

Traditionally, quarterbacks are devalued in non-Superflex fantasy football formats. However, we saw a major change in that philosophy last year. After decades of agreement between analysts and fans alike, the consensus in 2023 became skewed. Suddenly, drafting players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the first 15 picks of a non-Superflex draft wasn’t just for home leagues. It was a choice that full-time analysts were making.

Unfortunately, that strategy didn’t pay off. Last year’s top-scoring quarterback (Josh Allen) scored the second-fewest fantasy points of any top quarterback since 2017, while Patrick Mahomes was drafted as QB3 but finished as QB8. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, and Baker Mayfield all finished top 12 in scoring despite going undrafted in most leagues.

These trends show that good fantasy quarterbacks can still be had later in non-Superflex drafts, or on waivers. People in your home or local leagues may still gravitate toward taking elite passers early, but most knowledgeable drafters will not. That is the main difference between Superflex and non-Superflex rookie drafts, and it will greatly impact our rookie draft projections below.

Round 1

QB2 or Not QB2: Caleb Williams should be the top rookie passer selected in most Superflex rookie drafts. In leagues that start two quarterbacks, assuring you have a safe and reliable starter carries more value. The risk of chasing upside in those leagues rises, too. Williams has nearly as much fantasy upside as anyone in this rookie class, plus his floor is higher than any passer in the group.

However, the formula and desires of fantasy managers in non-Superflex leagues can run a bit differently. In a one-quarterback league, you can take risks and ignore a passer’s floor because there is more attainable talent if your pick fails. In those leagues, many managers will chase Jayden Daniels' elite rushing upside and make him the QB1 over Williams, knowing they can add Brock Purdy or Jared Goff as cheap insurance.

Un-Worthy ADP: In our Superflex Rookie Mock posted just last week, we projected Xavier Worthy’s stock to border on unreasonable. Unfortunately, that projection appears to have been conservative. Worthy is currently the fourth position player off most rookie draft boards, with an ADP of 1.05 and 1.08 in non-Superflex and Superflex, respectively. He is occasionally taken ahead of Rome Odunze and even Jayden Daniels in Superflex drafts.

The hype on Worthy is understandable. He has been paired with a young quarterback whose Hall of Fame jacket has already been fitted. The former Longhorn also has the speed and playmaking ability that made Tyreek Hill a superstar in the same offense. Massive upside surrounds the pairing of Worthy and Mahomes. There is a better-than-average chance Worthy never returns on his current cost, though.

You’ve probably heard this before, but Worthy is of slight build. He isn’t as thick or strong as Hill. The former Longhorn is not the complete player that Rome Odunze is, and he doesn't play a notoriously hard-to-fill position like Brock Bowers, either. The risk of injury, inconsistency, and failure is higher with Worthy than with multiple rookie receivers being drafted after him. That risk is not baked into his cost.

Round 2

Quarreling Over Corum: Credit must be given to Blake Corum for leading college football in rushing touchdowns in 2023. However, he also finished 99^th in PFF’s rushing grade, 82^nd in yards after contact per attempt, and 62^nd in breakaway play percentage. Worse, Corum finished 18^th in rushing yards despite earning the seventh-most carries and playing behind PFF's 10th-highest-rated run-blocking line.

As for Corum's landing spot, Rams head coach Sean McVay’s lead backs are indeed good for fantasy. It's also true Corum is a better athlete than Kyren Williams and is younger (by three months). Williams is coming off an impressive season, though, and both backs will turn 24 this fall. With how well Williams played last year, it’s unlikely Corum will steal more than 60% of the touches from him anytime soon.

Given that Corum was a volume-dependent runner in college, it’s troubling that he does not have a clear path to elite usage in the NFL. Williams could always leave or get hurt, elevating Corum's ceiling somewhat. However, the rookie's age, lack of big- play ability or elite metrics, and the likelihood he shares touches for two years make him the RB5 on my rookie board.

Location, Location, Location: The predraft process is fascinating. You fall in love with prospects, imagining all the good things they could do in ideal situations. Then the NFL Draft happens, and you suddenly don’t love those prospects as much. Sadly, bad schemes can ruin good prospects, and crowded position groups can force talented players to wither on the bench.

One player whose fantasy draft stock was hurt by his real-life landing spot is Adonai Mitchell. Had the former Longhorn been drafted by Buffalo, he’d have fit comfortably into the first round of most rookie drafts. Unfortunately, the run-heavy scheme in Indy, combined with an inconsistent passer and the presence of Michael Pittman Jr., will push Mitchell’s ADP down. The former Longhorn’s talent is still worth an early second-round investment, though.

On the flip side, one player whose landing spot may be better than expected is MarShawn Lloyd. The Packers just signed Josh Jacobs as their lead back, but Jacobs’ age and contract could make him a viable trade asset in a year or two. Green Bay could let Lloyd take on 30% of its snaps this year before giving him a full workload in 2025. Lloyd has every-down back potential if he can fix his fumbling problems.

Round 3

Steal of the Draft: This was noted in our Superflex Rookie Mock, but Javon Baker is my rookie sleeper of the year. He is a more gifted athlete than Ja'Lynn Polk, and there is a clear opportunity for targets in New England. The risk that Baker busts is already built into his third-round cost. His ability to break tackles and steal big plays could make him Drake Maye’s top target for the next five years, though.

Won’t Pay for Ray: Ray Davis is often drafted near the top of the third round in non-Superflex rookie drafts. He's an accomplished runner who can do everything relatively well, and he landed on a Bills team that reprioritized the run last year. Those are all fine reasons to like him. However, he isn't an explosive athlete, doesn't play with much bend, and will be 25 years old this season.

Giant Value: The most interesting value in this round is Tyrone Tracy Jr. A converted receiver, the Purdue product has plus receiving skills and the ability to take on hits. His main competition in the Giants backfield is Devin Singletary, who turns 27 this year. Tracy could quickly earn passing-down work away from Singletary and act as his primary backup, making the rookie a fascinating stash option despite his age (he turns 25 in November).

Round 4

Heir of Parents: While Brenden Rice and Luke McCaffrey may be drafted on name value, they have enough talent to reward a uniformed selection. Rice is on a Chargers team that is incredibly thin at receiver. He could act as a Josh Palmer replacement in 2025. Meanwhile, McCaffrey is a converted quarterback with room to grow as a receiver. McCaffrey is a good athlete and has strong hands. Both are fine values in this range.

Duck for Cover: Bo Nix falls exactly where he should in this non-Superflex mock. The value of quarterbacks in non-Superflex is suppressed, as we have discussed. In particular, the value of low-ceiling passers is driven down. Nix can become a steady starter in the NFL with some mobility to help his fantasy value, but the odds of him ever becoming an elite fantasy contributor are minimal.

Round 5

Is This Necessary?:  Some of you will reach the fifth round of non-Superflex drafts and wonder if the round is even necessary. Without an increased demand driving up the cost of quarterbacks, the talent pool gets thin at this stage, even in a quality class like this one. That said, there are some interesting players available in this round who are worth stashing on your TAXI.

One of the more underrated players in this class was Jamari Thrash. He performed well against both press and man coverage in college. His landing spot isn’t ideal, but the Louisville product played well at the Senior Bowl and can get open. Jared Wiley is another worthwhile stash, given he was a quality pass-catcher at TCU, and could eventually take over for Travis Kelce.

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