X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Point League Busts - Players to Fade

Points leagues can be a whole different ball game from your average roto leagues. When prepping for a points league, whether you're looking at ADP or online rankings, you're likely looking at data that is skewed by standard roto leagues. While it's good as a general starting point, some players simply perform better in one format over the other due to the differences in scoring.

We favor plate discipline and extra-base hits while devaluing steals in points leagues. Whereas steals are gold in roto and extra-base hits count for nothing unless you've altered the scoring categories. You must be particularly cognizant of your league's scoring system in points, as platforms reward categories differently. Strikeouts are punished on CBS but doubly so on ESPN. However, they're ignored on Fantrax, Yahoo, and NFBC Cutline.

With that in mind, many players will wind up being busts in point leagues, even though they could be quite valuable in Roto leagues. Here are five possible busts for 2020 that you may want to avoid in your points league.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Adalberto Mondesi (SS, KC)

There may not be a more polarizing player in fantasy baseball than Adalberto Mondesi. You can look at his .263 average, nine home runs, and 43 steals in only 443 plate appearances in 2019 and think, "Wow, this guy can be a top-15 hitter in fantasy". But then there's the 4.3% walk rate, 29.8% strikeout rate, and a .291 on-base percentage. "Send him down to Triple-A!" It's precisely this kind of profile that does not bode well for points leagues.

Remember, we want players with better plate discipline and power over speed because when a hitter takes a walk, you score a point. Mondesi, however, seems allergic to plate discipline,  finishing second in swinging-strike rate (21%), top-10 in chase rate (42.2%), and dead last in contact rate (63.4%) among the 207 hitters that accumulated at least 400 plate appearances in 2019.

This isn't what you want to see from someone with an overall FantasyPros consensus 44 ADP. The Statcast data above shows a profile that just isn't conducive to points leagues, where speed is devalued on most platforms. This combination of little power and bad plate discipline makes Mondesi one of the more overrated players in a points format.

 

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, STL)

There's no doubt Goldschmidt was a bust for many fantasy owners last year, finishing his first season with the Cardinals by slashing .260/.346/.476 with 34 home runs and three steals. With a current FantasyPros consensus 64 ADP of 64, there's just too much going against Goldschmidt for me to believe he'll return good value in points leagues.

For much of his career, Goldy played in one of baseball's best hitters parks at a pre-humidor Chase Field. But Goldschmidt's move to St. Louis meant playing in a home park that ranks 30th in woba-xwoba on fly balls and line drives over the last three years. Which is another way of saying that players just tend to underperform at Busch Stadium. With that in mind, it's not surprising that Goldschmidt's 2019 triple-slash helped produced the worst numbers he's put up since his rookie campaign.

Not everything can be blamed on the stadium, though. Goldschmidt has shown a steady decline in his plate discipline over the last few seasons, a common trend in players as they age. As you can see in the chart above, his O-Swing%(chase rate) has increased every year over the last four seasons, and as a result, his walk rate has decreased in each of those seasons.

The data also shows a more aggressive approach with a slight decrease in contact rate and the highest swinging-strike rate since his rookie year. Additionally, his exit velocity on line drives and fly balls has fallen from 96.5mph in 2017, to 95.9mph in 2018, to 94.5mph last season. With these trends not going in the right direction, I'm going to fade Goldy at his current ADP.

 

Miguel Sanó (1B/3B, MIN)

Miguel Sanó gave us a taste of his massive power potential last season, hitting a career-high 34 home runs in only 105 games. While a FantasyPros 114 ADP says much of the industry hopes he can build off that, he's still not someone I'm going to trust in a points league. Getting 34 home runs in under 500 plate appearances is fantastic in a roto league, where you can add to that total with a replacement player, making it somewhat moot when his production comes. Things don't quite work like that in a points league, though.

In any head-to-head format, you need players you can count on week in and week out. And consistency is not a good part of Sanó's game. He's yet to surpass 500 plate appearances in a season as he's been limited by injuries throughout his career. He's also never had a strikeout rate lower than 35%. With that, you're going to get massive variance in his batting average and on-base percentage from week to week.

For example, take a look at Sanó OBP in 2019. Here are his numbers month by month: .320, .290, .411, .313, and .395. In a shortened season, there's a wide range of outcomes for someone like Sanó, making for a decent chance that he's a bust at his ADP.

 

Luis Robert (OF, CHW)

I want the shiny new toy just as much as the next guy. And in roto leagues, I'm in on Luis Robert. Someone with 20/20 potential, heck yeah. But don't fall into that trap in a points league because Robert has another profile that just doesn't play well in the format.

Over the last two seasons in the minors, Robert's walk rates have sat around 4-5%, with strikeout rates over 22%. This goes back to the plate discipline points players generally want to see. Can we really expect anything better in his first taste of the majors? And is it worth finding out at a consensus FantasyPros 99 ADP?

Add that to his probable position at the bottom of the White Sox lineup, with plate-appearance volume being pivotal in points leagues. Hitting at the bottom of the order with bad plate discipline is a recipe for a points league bust, particularly within the top 100 picks.

 

Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, KC)

The final points league bust on the list comes with Royals' outfielder Whit Merrifield. Going at a FantasyPros consensus 48 ADP, that's way too rich for me in a points league. Because while he's been able to hit for an excellent average, there has been a downward trend in Merrifield's contact rate in the last three seasons, particularly on pitches in the zone.

Merrifield's Z-Contact% (contact on pitches in the strike zone) has fallen from 91.8% in 2017, to 88.4% in 2018, to 87.2% in 2019, inching him closer and closer to a league average around 85%. Paired with that decline, Merrifield's strikeout rate has slightly increased as well, going from 14% in 2017, to 16.1% in 2018, and 17.1% in 2019.

Obviously, these numbers aren't trending in the right direction. Add to that the fact that Merrifield just won't hit for much power, and you have a player I'm going to fade in points leagues. You could be getting someone like Adam Eaton, but around 150 picks earlier.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Steven Kwan55 mins ago

Plates Five In Win Over Seattle
Tee Higgins8 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner9 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi9 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk11 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins11 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak11 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander11 hours ago

Does Some Throwing On Friday
Justin Verlander11 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías11 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer11 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon12 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras12 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks13 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown13 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans13 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell13 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins14 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter14 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez14 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin14 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen14 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz14 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas14 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley14 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn14 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets16 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald16 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock17 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas17 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Corey Julks17 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against White Sox
Bryan Reynolds17 hours ago

Opt-Out Clause The Sticking Point For Bryan Reynolds Extension
Portland Trail Blazers17 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray17 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic17 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin17 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris17 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander17 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford17 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown17 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum18 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk18 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter18 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams20 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow20 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones20 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais22 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot22 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers22 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner22 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry22 hours ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk22 hours ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie22 hours ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson22 hours ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum23 hours ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray23 hours ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram23 hours ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Jaylen Brown23 hours ago

Collects Another 30-Point Game
Jayson Tatum24 hours ago

Drops 40 Points In Blowout Win
Naz Reid24 hours ago

Set To Miss Significant Amount Of Time
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard2 days ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Kirby Dach2 days ago

Set To Miss At Least One Week
Adam Boqvist2 days ago

Not Expected To Play Thursday
Matt Grzelcyk2 days ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Michael Hutchinson2 days ago

Tending Twine Against Boston Thursday
Stuart Skinner2 days ago

Gets The Nod For Edmonton Thursday
Petr Mrazek2 days ago

Between The Pipes Versus Blues
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard3 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF