Breece Hall - 2025 Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Draft Picks

Breece Hall is a potential fantasy football bust and overvalued draft pick to avoid in 2025. Read the fantasy football outlook and draft advice for the New York Jets running back.

RotoBaller Ranking (half-PPR): RB13

Fantasy Draft Analysis: The Jets have a new head coach in Aaron Glenn (from Detroit) and a new starting quarterback in Justin Fields. While there have been mixed signals on Breece Hall's usage for the upcoming season, it can't be forgotten that Glenn talked early in the offseason about getting all three of his running backs on the field as much as possible.

#Jets HC Aaron Glenn on Breece Hall and the RB room:

• “I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible”

• It could be a 1-2-3 punch with the guys we have

• If we can get them all on the field at one time, we’ll do that pic.twitter.com/2d3EvvEjed

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 31, 2025

It's possible that, as the new leader, he was just gassing up the entire running back room in Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis. But it's also possible he meant what he said.

Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most efficient and effective running backs last season, split work with David Montgomery. Despite his elite production, Gibbs finished the season with just a 53% opportunity share and a 35% route participation rate.

While Glenn and the new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, were not directly responsible for the division of work among the backs, that's the system they come from.

In 2024, Hall registered a 69% opportunity share and ranked first among all running backs in route participation rate (70%), per PlayerProfiler. Based on the new coaching regime and the new mobile quarterback (Fields), it seems highly unlikely Hall's usage in the passing game continues at the rate it has in his career.

In six starts for the Steelers last season, Fields threw to his running backs just 5.7 times per game. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers checked it down to his backs (Hall and Allen) 7.8 times per game.

Bears running backs were also bottom five in targets in two of three seasons with Fields as the starter between 2021 and 2023.

Not only does Fields not check down to his running backs, but he is also going to take off and run 8-10 times per game. Compare that to Rodgers, who took off just 22 times in 17 games for the Jets last season. Fields has 19 career rushing touchdowns on 418 attempts.

Hall needs as many high-leverage opportunities as he can get on an offense that could struggle to reach the red zone again in 2025. On a team projected to win just six games this season, those opportunities could be few and far between.

As wild as this sounds, Fields had more carries inside the 10-yard line (11) than Hall did last season (10). Hall played in 16 games, while Fields started in just six and played in a total of 10.

Avoid the headache and let somebody else draft Hall in the third round of your fantasy football drafts.

- Adam Koffler

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