X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Hitters Watch for Fantasy Baseball - Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, and More

Josh Jung - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in Week 9 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

It's Wednesday, so we have a handful more breakout hitter picks for you. This post has been a lot of fun for me to write every week, and I hope some people out there are enjoying it!

If you're new here, every week I give 4-6 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.

For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2023 Breakout Picks Tracker

Week Date Breakout Picks
Week 3 4/12 Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh
Week 4 4/19 Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker
Week 5 4/26 Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger
Week 6 5/2 Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo
Week 7 5/9 Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes
Week 8 5/16 Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls

Week 9 Picks

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers

We talked about Jung last year, and plenty of people have beat me to the punch on this. Jung was a guy that absolutely obliterated minor league pitching in his career (.313/.379/.576 line in the minors since 2021), and he was listed as one of the game's top prospects -- so he didn't exactly slip through the cracks for fantasy purposes.

The reason I have held off on calling him an official breakout pick was that he had struggled mightily with strikeouts in the major leagues.

Year PA K%
2022 102 38.2%
2023 189 30.2%

It doesn't matter how much pop you have in the bat, you just cannot be successful in the majors with a 38% K%. It's pretty tough to have success with a 30% mark -- but history was proven that it's at least possible to do that (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, etc. -- those guys have done it).

The best news of all is that Jung has been making contact at a higher rate as the year has gone on.

You can see that something changed at the end of April. Here are some 2023 splits on Jung over those timeframes:

Month PA K% Cont% Brl% OPS
Apr 108 32.4% 65.6% 12.3% .824
May 81 27.2% 75.6% 13.0% .736

A 10-point increase in contact rate is really striking, even though it came without a big boost in Brl% and a decline in OPS. He has been a bit more aggressive in May, raising his swing rate three points to 50%. It's especially good to see him making more contact even with more swings. The more balls this guy can get into the play -- the better.

There's very little questioning Jung's ability to hit homers. His exit velocity has been a little bit more moderate this year with a maximum EV of 108.9 and a 90th-percentile mark of 104.8. Those are fine numbers, but they're well shy of the league's best. How Jung hits his homers is by consistently getting balls into the air.

His 24.1-degree average launch angle is top 20 in the league.

His most common launch angle range is between 20 and 30 degrees, and that's where the homers come.


He has a swing for the long ball. If he can really keep a K% below 30%, he's going to be one of the better home run hitters in the league. He's almost certainly rostered in your league, but he makes for an appealing guy to "overpay" a little bit for right now as someone with a ton more upside in the tank if these recent contact rates sustain moving forward.

 

Brett Baty, New York Mets

This is another name that most people are well aware of. Baty was the Mets' top prospect and one of the game's top prospects coming into this season. He had a brief stint in the majors last year before an injury derailed his late-summer season, but he's back in the majors now and he deserves a shoutout here.

So far, the results haven't been great for Baty at the highest level in 2023:

105 PA, .258/.343/.430, Four HR, 12 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB

That's not awful by any means, but he hasn't been a super great fantasy asset right now. He has also been sitting quite often against left-handed pitching. That might continue no matter what given how deep the roster's bench is, but there's very little doubt that the end goal for the Mets is for Baty to be their everyday third baseman for a very long time.

When you look under the hood, Baty looks more like a fantasy stud in the making.

Stat Baty Lg Avg
K% 21% 22.7%
xwOBA .374 .316
Hard-Hit% 51.5% 39.5%
Cont% 73.4% 74.2%
GB% 51% 43%

The ground balls are high but not egregiously so. You can see how great the quality of contact is as he's crushing the league averages in those quality of contact stats while keeping the strikeouts below the league average.

I don't usually buy into young players/rookies, but if you can find me one that hits the ball extremely hard while not striking out at a high rate, I'm in -- and I'm in on Baty for 2023.

 

Ryan Noda, Oakland Athletics

This one is restricted to deep leagues. Noda was largely unknown coming into the year, but he has found a good amount of success in the bad Athletics lineup so far.

From 2021-2022 in the minors, Noda slashed .255/.389/.495 with a very nice 19.4 PA/HR rate while stealing 23 bags.

In the majors this year, he is striking out a lot (32%) and hitting just .224. His contact rate is bad at 63%. That's really the end of the scary news, however. Noda also has a very strong 14.5% Brl% with a nice and low 39% GB%. His xwOBA is well above average at .362 even with the high strikeout rate, and his hard-hit rate is strong at 45%.

One interesting thing in the profile is the 20% walk rate. He seems to know which pitches to swing at and which pitches to let go:

Stat Noda Lg Avg
Swing% 40% 47%
Z-Swing% 65% 67%
O-Swing% 17% 27%

He swings less than the league average, which doesn't help the strikeout total as he continually gets into deep counts. The redeeming quality there is that he has a well below-average chase rate (O-swing%) at 17%.

It's possible that his good eye at the plate will help him drop the strikeout rate moving forward since he's not very often offering pitches that can be touched. I'm not going to predict that he'll get the K% under 30% this year, but I think it's at least possible -- and even if he doesn't, the raw power is enough to help some teams out in very deep leagues.

 

Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics

I suppose I have to apologize now because I have given you three names of players that are probably not available in your league. But I want to put my opinions down on these players and give them the seal of approval.

We knew that Ruiz could and would steal a ton of bases in the majors this year if he got playing time. The guy swiped 89 bases in 2022 between AA, AAA, and the MLB. He was caught 17 times, which means he attempted 106 steals in his 587 plate appearances, an absurd number.

The trade from Milwaukee to Oakland was good for his playing time opportunities. That has proven to be true as he's been an everyday player for the Athletics, ranking fifth in the league in plate appearances right now. The power isn't there, and we should have known that coming into this season as well. He has just one homer this year and a 2.5% Brl% in his 215 PAs.

2023 MLB SB Leaders

Player PA SB
Esteury Ruiz 214 24
Ronald Acuna Jr. 214 19
Wander Franco 207 14
Jorge Mateo 143 14
Ji Hwan Bae 138 14
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 159 14
Whit Merrifield 165 13
Corbin Carroll 179 13
Bobby Witt Jr. 198 13
Anthony Volpe 210 13

The surprising part is the .285 batting average and the 17.7% K%. He is not walking much either (3.7%), which means he is putting a ton of balls into play. Like a ton. He has the seventh-most balls in play this year at 158. A low walk rate is not a good thing for a power hitter.

For a guy like Ruiz, it actually can function as a good thing because he is getting a ball into play before he can get to two strikes. With the wheels he has, that can turn into a lot of base hits. The lack of barrels also functions to put him on first base more often than second or third, and that is where all these steals are coming from.

It's weird to say, but we actually kind of like Ruiz's lack of power for that reason. He is going to be on first base a ton, and with the Athletics lineup around him -- there probably won't be someone blocking him at second base very often either.

If Ruiz stays healthy, it seems like he'll run away with the steals crown. He is one of those guys that can keep your fantasy team competitive in steals all by himself, and that lets you prioritize power with your other roster spots. He's an absolute must-start in fantasy, and he is someone to absolutely pay a big price tag for if you're hurting in steals.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF