Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 1 Lineups (2024)

Dave's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 1 season-long lineups in 2024. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

Finally! Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season has arrived. All of the fantasy football draft preparation is over. That means it’s time to stop ogling over your fantasy football roster and start hitting the grind.

Week 1 is no different than any other week, and your team must get off to a hot start so you find yourself in playoff contention sooner rather than later. You never want to fall behind the eight ball out of the gates as you could soon find yourself digging out of an early season hole. That’s why fantasy gamers must carefully examine their Week 1 lineups and not just throw players in willy-nilly.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s get into our Boom/Busts picks for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Week 1 Booms

Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Love enters 2024 as one of the highest-paid players in the league, and he gets a good draw to prove his worth right out of the gates.

Philadelphia is coming off a massive collapse to end the 2023 season. Its defense was largely to blame. Per FTN Fantasy, it finished 29th in defensive pass DVOA and 31st in passing yards allowed per game. It has made moves to address the issue, but the secondary is composed of aging veterans and talented, but unproven rookies.

Green Bay has one of the best young receiving corps in the league, and it should find success against Philadelphia’s secondary as it transitions to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

This is a good spot for Love on paper, and we should see plenty of points. Start Love in all leagues and expect a big opening-week performance.

Jordan Love off his back foot like Favre and Rodgers to Jayden Reed for the TD🫢 pic.twitter.com/moL5cdf48X

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) January 1, 2024

Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

This is a fantastic matchup for Jones in his Vikings debut. Minnesota should have a significant advantage on the ground in this game. New York finished 29th in defensive rush DVOA a year ago, and it struggled to defend zone rushing concepts.

Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, opposing offenses had a 50.9% success rate against New York on zone rushing plays. Among 68 running backs with 50+ carries, Jones finished first in success rate on zone runs (63.6%).

AARON JONES! 53 YARDS!

📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yDUx5ZutVa pic.twitter.com/WZg1zrGVdD

— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024

Minnesota will likely look to ride its defense and Jones to a victory against the Giants. Fantasy gamers would be wise to start the eighth-year running back and ride him to a Week 1 victory as well.

Rashid Shaheed - WR, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Shaheed was a popular breakout candidate before he suffered a toe/foot injury in training camp. Shaheed has said he will be fine and appears likely to suit up this week against Carolina. It's good to see as this is a matchup the speedy third-year receiver can potentially exploit.

Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Carolina played Cover 3 at the highest rate in the league last year. Shaheed performed quite well against this coverage. Among 211 receivers with 100+ routes run, he finished tied for 25th in fantasy points per route (FP/RTE) against Cover 3 and tied teammate Chris Olave in this metric. It could be a good day for the Saints and their new-look passing attack under Klint Kubiak.

Fire up Shaheed as a solid flex play as gamers should look for him to hit a big play or two. He may even explode with a surprise spike game.

Week 1 Busts

Deebo Samuel Sr. - WR, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets

Samuel is a great player, but he has always been more of a zone coverage beater than an elite route runner against man coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Samuel once again graded higher as a receiver against zone than he did vs. man in 2023. That could be a major issue in this game.

Samuel finished with a .37 FP/RTE against man coverage last year. This was significantly lower than his rate against zone coverage. The Jets played man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league and played zone at the 26th-highest rate.

This is a potential nightmare matchup, and Samuel could wind up being one of the opening week’s biggest busts. Managers should prepare themselves for a rough opening night.

Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Prescott and Dallas draw a tough opening-week assignment. Cleveland’s defense ranked second in overall defensive DVOA and defensive pass DVOA in 2023. The Browns were also much better at defending the pass at home as they allowed 126.3 passing yards per game at home compared to 207.9 on the road.

Dallas also has major question marks surrounding its running backs and offensive line. It could find trouble moving the football on the ground against Cleveland’s defensive front. If that comes to fruition, Dallas may become one-dimensional. This would allow the Cleveland pass-rushers to tee off on Prescott.

We should expect another strong season from Prescott in 2024, but this is a matchup to avoid.

Zack Moss - RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

While the Bengals are nearly double-digit favorites in this game, New England’s defense could give the Bengals’ ground attack some fits. While the Patriots were a mess last year, they quietly defended the run quite well. New England finished third in defensive rush DVOA and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game.

Cincinnati’s rushing offense wasn’t exactly a strength last year, either. It only finished 19th in offensive rush DVOA, and the offensive line ranked 30th in PFF’s run blocking grade.

Some of these numbers were likely affected by Joe Burrow’s absence. However, it’s clear the running game was not a strength, and this is not a good matchup. It would not be surprising if the Bengals opt to put the game in Burrow’s hands and let the passing game do the work (even if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t play) as New England was not as good at defending the pass.

Moss should have some solid games as Cincinnati's RB1, but this game likely isn’t one of them.

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