X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Boom or Bust - Player Predictions for Young QBs

Leonard Francis looks at three young quarterbacks who could boom or bust in 2018 fantasy football leagues and projects their value in fantasy drafts.

Surely, you’ve seen one of those court shows which dominate daytime television. Judge Judy, Divorce Court, Judge Mathis… Whatever, you’ve seen at least one. If you haven’t (and happen to be a law-abiding citizen of the utmost regard who’s never had the pleasure of going to court), here’s a quick rundown of the judicial process.

There are two parties in each case: the prosecution and the defense. If you’re basing your understanding off daytime TV, the defendants have normally done something beyond ridiculous and are hilariously incompetent when it comes to defending their case. Meanwhile, the prosecutors are the ones on the receiving end of said ridiculousness and are attempting to prove their case to win some form of compensation. Once all evidence is presented, and arguments have been made, the judge makes a ruling. Basically, which side he/she believes more. If any of this is news to you, set your DVR for an episode of Judge Judy and thank me later. Comedy genius.

What we have now are the cases for three quarterbacks and what their fantasy production will look like in 2018. The prosecution (played by me) will attempt to make the case that you should avoid each player, as they’re not worthy of draft consideration based on their current average draft position – ADP. While the defense (also played by me) will attempt to make the case for you to buy in, and get these dudes on your fantasy squads ASAP. I’ll also be playing the judge, but feel free to decide for yourself and hit me up letting me know where I missed…

Editor's Note: Explore RotoBaller’s Dynasty Fantasy Football hub for year-round dynasty rankings, trade tips, rookie analysis, and long-term player outlooks. Dominate your league with our sleepers, stash targets, and dynasty draft advice. Click here for Dynasty rankings and strategy.

 

Boom or Bust?

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Prosecution

During his Junior year at Texas Tech, Mahomes threw for an astounding 5052 yards - that’s nearly three miles if you’re into that kind of thing – which is good for the 12th highest single-season mark in NCAA history. He also did so in the Big 12, which is equivalent to being an ambidextrous surgeon - sounds good, but does it matter?

I’d argue, no.

Other than Mahomes, there have been eleven QBs to throw for at least 5,000 yards in a single-season at the collegiate level: Kliff Kingsbury, Case Keenum (three times), Bryant Moniz, Brandon Doughty, Paul Smith, Derek Carr, Graham Harrell (twice), David Kingler, Ty Detmer, Colt Brennan, and B.J. Symons – two and a half of them (Keenum, Carr, Detmer) have had success at the NFL level, and three of the eleven also happened to play at TX Tech (none of those three even scratched the surface at the NFL level.) (I’d also bet you’ve never heard of at least five of these gentlemen.)

That said, we’ve seen Mahomes play just one NFL game, a 284 yard, zero TD, one INT game in Denver which he completed about 63% of his passes and put up 10.4 fantasy points. Bad? Not by any means. But, does it justify the hype? Not exactly. Mahomes will essentially be playing his rookie season – looking at you Ben Simmons – and while we’ve seen a fair share of rookie QBs step into the NFL and not miss a beat, the numbers aren’t exactly in his favor. Especially when you factor in trips to Pittsburgh, New England, and LA (Rams) along with two matchups against the Chargers and Broncos.

Defense

Since 1999, 17 QBs have started at least 10 games for teams coached by Andy Reid, and of those 17, only three failed to put up at least 3,000 yards passing (2002 Donovan McNabb – who added 460 rushing yards and six rushing TDs, 2006 McNabb – who was coming off sports hernia surgery, and 2012 Michael Vick). Now I get it, 3,000 yards isn’t much in today’s NFL, but that’s 120 fantasy points - excluding any other factor. Add in a rough estimate of 15 TDs, and you’re now at 180. Eli Manning finished 2017 as the 23rd highest scoring fantasy QB with 187 fantasy points despite having Ben McAdoo, no offensive line, no run game, and what some would amount to as CFL receivers. Mahomes will have Reid, Kareem Hunt (1,782 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs in 2017), Tyreek Hill (1,242 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs in 2017), Sammy Watkins (593 yards and 8 TDs for the Rams in 2017), and Travis Kelce (1,038 yards and 8 TDs in 2017). In addition to playing in what figures to be a QB friendly offense - for an offensive-minded coach who shouldn’t struggle to find ways to maximize his strengths - a man is as good as his tools, and his are pretty damn good. The upside is obvious.

Verdict: Bust

Depending on where he falls in your draft, of course. Yes, the upside is clearly there, but based on his current ADP (111), Mahomes is going around the 10th round in 12-team leagues; ahead of guys like Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr and right behind the likes of Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, and Ben Roethlisberger. That’s pretty good company for a guy who’s thrown just 35 passes in his NFL career.

Being one who doesn’t mind waiting on QB, I’m not completely against grabbing Mahomes in the 11th or 12th round. But, even that late, expectations should be held in check. While Reid gets credited as being an offensive guru, his Chiefs have finished in the Top-10 in offensive yards and points scored just once in his five seasons in KC. Mahomes also ran a 4.80-second 40-yard dash at the combine – which is comparable to Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – so while he is quick and athletic, I wouldn’t expect much in terms of rushing. Then, there’s the inevitable rookie struggles and turnovers which are likely to accompany them. A 2017 Cam Newton season (minus the rushing totals) seems like a safe bet; around 3200 passing yards with say 15 TD and about the same in terms of INTs - roughly 200 fantasy points; which would put him in Tyrod Taylor, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton range a season ago a.k.a. nowhere near the company he’s currently keeping.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

Prosecution

Who the hell is Jimmy GQ?

He dominated at an FCS school, Eastern Illinois University (Tony Romo’s alma mater), but really? Eastern Illinois?! Yeah, he looked good in two 2016 starts while Tom Brady served his Deflategate suspension, but we’ve seen Matt Cassel, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, and Jacoby Brissett go from Brady backup with promise in New England, to NFL flunkies outside of Foxborough. Most recently, Brissett, who finished 30th of 32 qualified QBs with a 58.8% completion % in 15 starts last season as a Colt. He also threw just 13 TD to 7 INT, and his 81.7 quarterback rating was good for 22nd despite the likes of T.Y. Hilton, and Jack Doyle. So, yeah, Garoppolo might have gone 5-0 to end the season, but he also threw five INT over those five starts and teams now have a handful of game tapes to study up on. He’s likely just another in the line of Pats expats who will struggle to find success on his own.

Defense

Garoppolo looked good to close out the 2017 campaign, and more importantly, he looked like a winner. Once the 49ers handed him the reigns, they went 5-0, he averaged 308 passing yards per game to go along with six passing TDs, and three of those five games came against top 12 defenses. Add that to his two starts in 2016 – 248 yards per game with four TDs and zero INTs – and you have about half of an NFL season as a sample size to suggest he’s no fluke. He’s Matt Ryan-esque in build (and from what I’ve seen skill set; to an extent), the same Matt Ryan who averaged over 4,700 passing yards with Kyle Shanahan as his Offensive Coordinator (San Francisco’s Head Coach) – including an MVP award and Super Bowl appearance. He’s got a veteran receiver in Pierre Garcon, and a speedster on the outside in Marquise Goodwin while George Kittle and Trent Taylor both showed signs of promise over the middle a season ago. Oh, and they added Jerick McKinnon to the backfield who is a perfect fit for this offense and is bound to have a monster year - both on the ground and through the air. Jimmy GQ is surrounded by some solid weapons, and has the coaching staff behind him to capitalize on his abilities.

Verdict: Bust

The same caveat that was applied to Mahomes applies to Garoppolo; it depends on where he lands in your draft. That statement probably holds even more weight with Garoppolo as his eighth-round ADP (85) puts him in the same range as Matthew Stafford. While there is a lot to like with Jimmy G, 7th/8th-round is just a bit rich for my blood; especially given his propensity to turn the ball over last season - matchups at Minnesota, at LA Chargers, Rams twice, Denver, and Chicago don’t exactly help his cause, either. Will he have nearly a 1:1 TD:INT ratio this season? Probably not, but he offers damn near negative rushing upside, and the target on his back is probably the biggest of any of the young QBs. As with Mahomes, a decent season seems likely ( I won’t be surprised if he finishes the season as a Top-12 fantasy QB), but it seems wise to temper expectations given the price you’ll likely have to pay to get him.

 

Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears

Prosecution

The primary objective of fantasy football is to score more points than your opponents, and QBs aren’t likely to accumulate many fantasy points if they don’t throw the football. Trubisky’s 330 pass attempts in 2017 were good for 28th among QBs – fewer than guys like Trevor Siemian, Jacoby Brissett, and Deshone Kizer. Theoretically, fewer pass attempts should lead to a greater completion percentage and lower turnover margin. Well, Trubisky completed just 59.4% of his passes (27th) while putting up a 1:1 TD:INT ratio (7 TD, 7 INT). So, not only did he not throw the football much in his rookie campaign, but when he did, he wasn’t very good in doing so. Not to mention, Jordan Howard has been among the league leaders in rushing attempts over his two seasons in Chicago, and given their talent on the defensive side of the ball, old school Bears football definitely seems like the recipe for success.

Game managers don’t win fantasy championships.

Defense

Andy Reid gets a lot of credit for “turning Alex Smith’s career around.” Well, two of the best seasons of Smith’s 12-year career came in 2016 and 2017 where he threw for 7,544 yards with 41 TDs and just 13 INTs. Over those two seasons, the Chiefs ranked 14th (412) and 23rd (405) in rushing attempts and 25th (546) and 17th (543) in passing attempts. Meanwhile, the Bears ranked dead last in passing attempts a season ago during Trubisky’s rookie campaign. Why does any of this matter? Matt Nagy, the Chiefs offensive coordinator for those two Alex Smith seasons (who deserves as much credit as Reid), is now the Bears’ Head Coach. Oh, and lest we forget, Trubisky was throwing to the likes of Josh Bellamy, Kendall Wright, and Dion Sims a season ago. No disrespect to any of those cats, but again, a man is as good as his tools. Trubisky received a new arsenal of weapons over the offseason as the Bears went out and signed Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton - all of which figure to provide a drastic boost to Chicago’s receiving corps (and indicate Trubisky will be throwing a wee bit more this season). Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen are still around to keep defenders in the box, and Kevin White is also healthy (knock on wood) to potentially spread the defense even more. Oh, and Chicago also boasts one of the better offensive line units in the league... Everything is in place for a breakout sophomore season.

Verdict: Boom

You guessed it, the same caveat applies. However, Trubisky’s current ADP (166) means there’s a pretty good chance you can grab him in the 13th round or later (if he’s even drafted) in your 10/12-team re-draft leagues. Thing is, he easily has the potential to finish the season with Top-15 fantasy QB numbers. I wouldn’t expect a 4,000-yard passing season, but 3,300 seems attainable, and I can all but guarantee that he’ll double his TD total (7) from a season ago. In addition to what’s likely to be an increase through the air, Trubisky’s 248 rushing yards were good for the 13th most among QBs a season ago. And while you might not think of him as a dual-threat QB, his 4.67-second 40-yard dash was just .01 second slower than that of Texans' Deshaun Watson at last season’s combine - an additional two fantasy points per game on average from rushing yards definitely seems repeatable, and that’s on the low end.

All told, Garoppolo averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of 2017 while Trubisky averaged 13.5 - each had one 20+ point performance over that stretch, and both had two 18+ point performances. One major difference, Trubisky did it with inferior weapons and about five fewer pass attempts per game. With an improved receiving corps, and an offensive-minded head coach, neither of these differences seem likely to be a detractor to Trubisky’s value in 2018 so the discrepancy in ADP between the two QBs is baffling. I’ll gladly take the five-round discount with Trubisky.

 

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF