MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (6/26/2025)

Dan Palyo's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/26/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

Thursdays bring small slates and today we may have some tricky weather with some rain forecasts. But the hot hitting conditions are also going to help those balls fly out of the park, and we should be able to find plenty of spots for home runs one way or another.

The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 26, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/26/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, June 26:

• Junior Caminero -  Tampa Bay Rays
• Bobby Witt Jr. - Kansas City Royals
• Seiya Suzuki - Chicago Cubs
• Andy Pages - L.A. Dodgers
• Dominic Canzone - Seattle Mariners

Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This ballpark is not always friendly to hitters, but we have a 13 mph wind blowing out to left-center field today that will favor right-handed power bats.

Royals righty Michael Lorenzen has been slightly reverse splits, but mainly just very home-run prone overall with a 1.53 HR/9 mark.

Caminero is better against RHP, having slugged 15 of his 19 home runs off righties and compiling an impressive .284 ISO in that split. He also happens to be 1-3 against Lorenzen this season with a home run already.

Junior Caminero's current pace:

157 G
660 PA
40 HR
36 2B
100 R
106 RBI
11 SB
.264 AVG
.309 OBP
.521 SLG
133 wRC+
4.5 fWAR

He is doing things that only Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols were doing at his age. He turns 22 years old on July 5th.#RaysUp pic.twitter.com/7vpVHEPw6z

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 25, 2025

Caminero has quickly bloomed into one of the better right-handed power bats in the American League. We aren't getting a discount on his odds anymore, but I still like his chances doing some yard work today.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We stay in the same game here with another righty-on-righty matchup as Bobby Witt Jr. faces the hard-throwing Shane Baz. While Witt is not a traditional home run hitter, he still has power to all fields and the ability to clear the fences even when he's not trying to.

Like Lorenzen, Baz has shown some reverse splits this season and has given up a home run to Witt, even though he has only faced him a few times.

The same logic applies here with the park factor, as the winds today are going to favor righties who can pull the ball to left or left-center field. Witt is a dead-red fastball hitter who could tee off on Baz, and he has the bat speed needed not to be late on Baz's fastball.

Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Stop me if you have heard this before. We have an elite power hitter (Suzuki) facing a below-average pitcher who has demonstrated reverse splits this season (Andre Pallante). Oh, and the wind at Busch Stadium is blowing out to right-center field, ha!

This is all purely a coincidence, I promise. But yes, it's hard not to like Suzuki, who has piled up 21 home runs already this season against Pallante, who has allowed RHH to slash .291/.360/.481.

Suzuki has tortured lefties this year, but he has hit 13 of his 21 home runs off right-handers and has solid splits against them, too.

Seiya Suzuki lines a go-ahead homer into the bullpen!

Want Seiya Suzuki to be an All-Star? ➡️ https://t.co/qZ7xq4aEem pic.twitter.com/0NPUVm6xbg

— MLB (@MLB) June 25, 2025

We have hot weather in St. Louis, and the ball should be flying when they put it in the air. Pallante has done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground overall, but righties have had more luck elevating his pitch mix. Consider Nico Hoerner today as a long-shot bet, as he's also had some success off Pallante in his career in terms of BvP.

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Andy Pages OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We have to have a Dodger for a home run today in Coors Field, right? I mean, lefty Austin Gomber is sporting a 2.79 HR/9 through his first two starts of the season, and the Dodgers are loaded with home run hitters.

I want a right-handed hitter today, but the usual suspects of Mookie Betts (just nine home runs this season) and Will Smith (0-12 against Gomber lifetime) didn't quite do it for me. So, why not roll with Pages, who has emerged as a legit power threat with 16 bombs this season? He has one off Gomber in his career in only three at-bats and has better odds than both of the other Dodgers sluggers.

Andy Pages is hitting a ridiculous .368 with RISP

pic.twitter.com/GiCUDCZIiW

— Klein25 (@Klein25) June 26, 2025

If you wanted to go a little more contrarian and play a lefty, Freddie Freeman is the ultimate lefty-on-lefty masher, and he has two career home runs off Gomber as well.

Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Here is our long-shot bet of the night! Not many baseball fans likely know who Canzone is, but the 27-year-old lefty has been crushing minor league pitching for the last two and a half years and making his case to be a full-time big leaguer for the Mariners.

Dominic Canzone also reaches the second deck here in Minnesota, for his third homer in the past two games.

Exit velo: 107.8 mph
Launch angle: 36°
Distance: 407 ft.
Hang time: 6.2 seconds pic.twitter.com/j8fucJqtRC

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) June 24, 2025

Canzone has been red-hot for the Mariners since getting more playing time and should be in the lineup against a righty, Simeon Woods Richardson, today. SWR has allowed lefties to slash .340/.396/.511 this season and has given up 1.35 HR/9.

Canzone has some serious pop in his bat. He had 13 HRs at Triple-A this season before being called up, and we've seen him make an impact already. I could easily see him getting under one today and giving it a ride over the right-field wall.

The only negative here is that this game has the most chance of a PPD with a lot of rain heading into Minnesota, so keep an eye on the weather.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market in which to win on a nightly basis.

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