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Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
It was Central central this week, as we saw two excellent outings from pitchers who call a central division their home. First, we'll look at Cal Quantrill's triumphant return from the injured list against the Rays. Then, we'll break down recent Cubs call-up Jordan Wicks who's pitched well in his first two starts.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 09/04/2023.
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2023 Stats (Prior to this start): 67 IP, 6.45 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.2% K-BB%
09/01 vs. TB: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
It was a friendly return from the injured list for Cal Quantrill, who picked up a quality start in his first appearance since July 5. Quantrill missed nearly two months with shoulder soreness, and things weren’t going great for him prior to being shut down. He had a 14.06 ERA and 2.4% K-BB% in the four starts prior to being placed on the injured list. While not exactly a Cy Young candidate, Quantrill had been a solid starter in the past, including a 3.59 ERA in 441 innings between 2020 and 2022. Can he return to the realm of fantasy usefulness, or are his days of relevance Quantrill-fiably over?
Once the eighth overall pick in the 2016 draft by San Diego, Quantrill didn’t have nearly the hype of some other Cleveland arms we’ve seen over the past few years, such as Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and more recently, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Quantrill was viewed more as a back-end starter, and he’d been a reliable number four coming into the year. He works with a deep arsenal of six pitches, including a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup, curveball, and splitter.
Quantrill’s best pitch this season has been the curveball, which has frustrated opposing hitters for a .206 AVG, .382 SLG, and .247 wOBA against. The pitch is best characterized by its prominent vertical movement, giving it a classic rainbow curve. Here’s an example from an earlier start this season (source @pitchingninja)
With the exceptional performance of this pitch, it’s a wonder that Quantrill doesn’t incorporate it more into his approach on the mound. He’s only thrown his curveball 9.7% of the time this season, and only thrown his splitter 7.2% of the time. He’s used his sinker, cutter, and changeup most often. Those three pitches all have an xwOBA against greater than .350. This isn’t a working strategy, and we’ll need to see some change in approach before Quantrill becomes interesting. He could be moving in that direction, as Quantrill began using his splitter more frequently in this one.
Quantrill threw his splitter 18.6% of the time in this start, the highest usage of any start for him this season. Quantrill threw the pitch under 5% of the time in the three starts leading up to his injured list stint, so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for the pitch due to his shoulder ailment. The splitter is a new addition for Quantrill, who had begun working it in during spring training.
Quantrill’s splitter usage has oscillated throughout the season. An 87 MPH offering with 1050 RPM, Quantrill’s splitter acts as a split-change and Quantrill uses it mostly as a finisher. Is it finishing? Sort of, as Quantrill has induced an impressive -10-degree average launch angle with the pitch, leading to a .250 AVG and .213 xBA against this season. While the 58% groundball rate on Quantrill’s splitter is nice, the 7.8% swinging strike rate and 27.6% chase rate leave much to be desired.
Poor strikeout peripherals shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s ever looked at the back of Quantrill’s baseball card. His 17.8% career strikeout rate is five percent lower than league average. He’s also found a new low this season with a 12.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% swinging strike rate. Of the six pitches in his arsenal, not one has a swinging strike rate greater than 10% or a chase rate greater than 28% this season. Quantrill has the strikeout prowess of a pitcher from 1973, not 2023. It’s difficult to consider a pitcher in fantasy who’s been inconsistent with run prevention when there are no strikeouts to bolster his value. Consider Quantrill in comparison to another volatile AL righty, Nick Pivetta. Pivetta may issue too many walks, or give up a few too many homers, but he can at least give you strikeout value. Quantrill is all downside.
Verdict:
There isn’t a lot to like about what Quantrill is doing from a fantasy perspective. He has been shellacked for the better part of the season, leaving him with an ugly 6.16 ERA and 5.61 SIERA in 14 starts. He has a pitiful 12.1% strikeout rate and 1.60 K/BB ratio. He also earned just six swinging strikes in this start. Quantrill has added a splitter and began using it more often in this outing, but that’s not nearly enough to trust him, especially this late in the season. Quantrill’s three primary pitches (sinker, cutter, and changeup) are all below average, and in turn, so is he. He’s a full avoid in all but the deepest of leagues.
Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs – 25% Rostered
2023 Stats (AAA): 33 IP, 3.82 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%
09/01 @ CIN: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Jordan Wicks followed up his dominant nine-strikeout debut with another excellent performance, holding division rival Cincinnati to one run while picking up his second victory in as many starts. The Cubs have struggled to solidify the back-end of their rotation all season, and Wicks has flashed the potential to add some stability to the staff. Will Wicks follow in the footsteps of Justin Steele and Javier Assad and emerge as the next exciting young arm on the north side, or will this candle burn to the Wick(s)?
A first-round pick out of Kansas State in 2021, Wicks was the 10th-ranked prospect in Chicago’s system by MLB pipeline. His time in the minor leagues is best characterized by his exceptional strikeout rates. Wicks sustained a strikeout rate of 29% or higher at every level until reaching Triple-A, where it dipped to 22.2% in seven starts. Wicks uses a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. It’s a broad arsenal, but much of the focus belongs on one pitch, which is the changeup.
Batters have been stymied by Wicks’ changeup thus far, with opponents yet to muster a single hit off the changeup in two starts. Instead, batters have flailed hopelessly at it for a 23.8% swinging strike rate and a 44.6% chase rate. What makes the pitch so special? With tremendous vertical movement, Wicks’ changeup dies just as it’s coming to the plate, befuddling batters who expect to crush a juicy heater. Here’s an example from earlier this season.
Nasty. The other NL Wild Card contenders probably wish Chicago left Wicks in the minors after seeing him unleash his changeup against two division rivals. Wicks was able to maintain consistent strikeout numbers in the minors with this pitch, and he may be able to carry that success into the majors. Wicks’ changeup has all the makings of an out pitch.
Wicks’ changeup has gotten plenty of well-deserved hype, but what about the rest of his arsenal? He has below-average fastball velocity at 92.6 MPH, and his middling fastball spin and movement struggle to make up the gap. Wicks won’t be able to blow by hitters with this heater and may be prone to home runs. He had a 1.61 HR/9 at Double-A in 2022, and a 1.39 HR/9 at that level this season prior to his promotion. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Wicks run into homer trouble if he mislocates with his fastball. Altogether, this is a below-average fastball that Wicks can make do with because of his outstanding changeup.
While Wicks has toyed with several secondary offerings, his most prominently used pitch outside of the changeup and fastball would be his cutter. An 89.1 MPH pitch, Wicks’ cutter has great horizontal movement and has generated weak contact thus far. Opposing hitters have a 78.9 MPH average exit velocity and a -14-degree average launch angle off Wicks’ cutter this season. However, bear in mind that he’s only had two career starts. The cutter has the potential to be a solid third pitch, which would round out Wicks’ arsenal and make him starting rotation material.
Verdict:
With exceptional vertical movement, chase, and a soft contact profile, Wicks’ changeup is certainly for real. The rest of his game? It’s a work in progress. Wicks must learn to navigate the big leagues with a common conundrum for a young starting pitcher. He has one outstanding pitch trying to make up for a weak fastball and buttressed by rough secondary offerings. Wicks has the potential to rack up the strikeouts on any given night, and for that, he has fantasy upside. Consider Wicks an invigorating but raw September call-up for your team. He’s got the stuff to provide a late-season spark, but he’s unpolished and could have some rough starts ahead. If you’re comfortable with your rotation, pass. If you need that spark, try lighting this Wick(s).
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