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Which wide receiver is a better value at current ADP between TY Hilton or Adam Thielen? Brandon Murchison compares the two WRs in the latest ADP Showdown.
Aside from the running back position, receivers are next on the totem pole of importance in fantasy drafts. With the influx of PPR scoring formats and higher octane passing attacks, receivers can find themselves scoring just as much as some RBs. Early stages of the draft you will see many different strategies put in place by owners. Some will go with the traditional RB stack, while others use the ever-popular "Zero RB" theory. Any strategy that you try to put forth can work as long as the remainder of your draft goes smooth. But the early picks can definitely make or break you in determining who to draft.
One of these decisions that will arise could be between T.Y. Hilton and Adam Thielen. These two players are coming off boards at the end of the second round according to current ADP and could be two names that will fill your WR1 role. Both players are coming off very solid years in which they were key contributors for fantasy owners. Thielen was a receiver that was playing as the overall WR1 for most of the season, but a bad second half left owners wondering just who he is as a player. Meanwhile, Hilton rebounded from a tough 2017 season with Andrew Luck returning to full health.
So the question remains, who should you take if the decision is put in front of you? We jump into the numbers and determine who has the higher ceiling and will be the better fit for your fantasy teams in 2019 in this ADP Showdown.
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T.Y. Hilton
WR9 (#22 Overall)
After a 2017 season that saw Hilton as one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy, he bounced back to finish as WR14 a year ago. With Andrew Luck's return, Hilton saw a rise in all key categories. His receptions, yardage, and scoring were all up (76 catches for 1,270 yards and six TD). The offense ran much more efficiently and Hilton was back to being the main focus of that. He maintained his knack of being one of the premier deep threats in the league with a 16.71 average YPR. Hilton's fantasy value is usually directly connected to his ability to separate and get down the field, something that we were not seeing in 2017. Luck, even after the shoulder injury, was able to come back and accurately get the ball to Hilton on deep patterns, noted by his high yards per target number of 10.95.
With Luck now even further removed from the shoulder injury, a somewhat respectable running game, and other options at receiver, Hilton could see an even bigger uptick in production in 2019. Currently being drafted at the tail end of round two, it likely makes him an option for owners as their WR1. You could do worse in this scenario as Hilton gives you a great option to pair with one of the top RBs in fantasy. The Colts offense seems to be on the rise and Hilton will be that type of option that you do not question in your lineup weekly. There may be weeks where the Colts defense could hinder Hilton's opportunities, but overall he will finish the season as one of the top options in fantasy.
Adam Thielen
WR10 (#24 Overall)
Thielen was on a tear to begin the 2018 season. Through the first 10 weeks of the year, he was the top receiver in fantasy. Although he finished with great numbers (113 catches for 1,373 yards and nine TD), the finish down the stretch really left a bad taste in owner's mouths. Much of that was largely contributed to Kirk Cousins' poor performance in the second half. Also, the Vikings leaned more on the running game during that time frame as well. He had one of the higher catch percentages in the league (75.8%), showing that when the ball was headed his way, you were indeed in line for points, which is good news when he saw 149 targets in 2018.
Now heading into 2019, Thielen finds himself as an option that is somewhat overlooked in drafts. He has consistently produced in back-to-back seasons and plays for a Vikings offense that can put points on the board. His value is directly tied into what Kirk Cousins can do in year two with the Vikings. If he struggles yet again, then you can expect a similar outcome with Thielen this year. But the team has also been pointing to a willingness to become more ground-oriented this year. If that is the case, his targets could see a drop and that will also affect his production. Being drafted as a WR1 currently, Thielen remains one of the more consistent options that you can draft at receiver.
Verdict
Presented with this option can be a troubling one for fantasy owners in 2019. Both have shown a prowess for being a top option in the game and could again be that this year. But who is the better fit for your team? I would be going with Hilton. He is the unquestioned top option in a Colts passing game that will again be highly productive. While the 2018 version of Thielen may be the best that we see in terms of a production standpoint. Hilton provides a higher upside and a player that I would want as my WR1.
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