ADP Fallers at Running Back

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of three running backs from mid-July to mid-August and assesses their fantasy football value at RB in 2020.

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition. Now it's time to examine some running backs who have seen their draft stock plummet during the preseason thus far.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

Running Backs - ADP Fallers

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccanneers

The Tampa rookie tested positive for COVID-19 back in late July and that clearly impacted his ADP during the past few days. The bump down is clearly visible after July 27, the day he was placed on the Reserve list. That shouldn't be an issue for him once the season starts if we assume there will be no problems long-term with catching the illness.

More worrying about Vaughn and his situation in Tampa, though, is the fact that the Bucs recently signed veteran-RB LeSean McCoy. He will be playing for the Bucs on a one-year deal (signed July 30) and that is also visible in the chart above, as Vaughn suffered another bump down around that date.

It is not that Vaughn is a rookie entering 2020, but also that he will be facing stiff competition for opportunities having to battle two established rushers such as Ronald Jones II and now LeSean McCoy too. If PFF projections hold and Vaughn starts the year as Tampa's RB1, he would provide a borderline neutral ROI reaching 143+PPR over the season. If his ADP keeps going down then he would start to become a real steal in later rounds, currently getting drafted as the RB37 and projecting to finish 2020... as the RB37.

Sony Michel, New England Patriots

Michel's stock has dropped quite a lot during the past few weeks. After New England signed Cam Newton, himself a rushing threat and potentially an opportunity-eater on that side of the game, it makes sense for Michel's ADP to have plummeted a round and a half in fantasy drafts.

The Patriots backfield is crystal clear in terms of assets and how it works: Michel is mostly tasked with running the ball, and teammate James White is the one taking on pass-catching duties. Per PFF projections, both of them are really close in the 2020 leaderboard with Michel at 150 PPR points and White at 153, although Michel would carry the ball almost 200 times to White's 60 (things flip on targets, with White edging Michel 80 to 25).

With a current ADP of RB44 but the projected 34th-best PPR mark among running backs, Michel's ROI is above average by a substantial margin (his overall ADP of 111 has him as a ninth-round draftee). He's a much more valuable pick than White (getting drafted as the RB34) and will keep a very good ROI even if his ADP rises a little bit. He was recently put on the PUP list, though, so keep an eye there just in case his health doesn't hold and he ends missing ample time. If that is not the case, those concerns might make him a true late-round steal to exploit when he comes back fully healthy.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos

There is not much to worry about or get pumped about Phillip Lindsay's ADP variation over the past few weeks. In fact, it has only moved half a round down since the start of July, mostly because nothing has truly changed in Denver to cause a big swing in either direction.

After signing Melvin Gordon III earlier this offseason, Denver will go with MelGo as its RB1 with Lindsay perhaps taking more on pass-catching duties than actual rushing plays. Even with that, though, Lindsay still projects to reach 140+ PPR points in 2020 ranking as the RB38 in PFF projections. That might not sound too good, but the fact that Lindsay is getting drafted as the RB43 these days with an overall ADP of 107 (a virtual ninth-round pick) makes him a valuable pick to snatch late as your RB3 or FLEX option.

I don't expect huge moves up or down in ADP for Lindsay, but if he keeps getting drafted low (and lower) he's definitely some to keep an eye on with big upside and ROI potential.

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