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Eric's top 10 fantasy football playoffs running back handcuffs worth picking up and stashing as insurance policies for starting RBs before the 2021 playoffs.
It's that time of the fantasy football season where many managers are gearing up for the playoff push. For some, that means trying to find the best options to win this week and qualify for the postseason, but, for others, that means adding guys to your bench who could push you over the top if they're given the opportunity to play.
Yes, we're talking about the notorious RB "handcuff" or "insurance policy."
First, let's define what qualifies a player as an insurance policy rather than a streamer or must-add.
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What Constitutes a Good Insurance Policy at RB?
So what do we mean by handcuff or, to be politically correct, insurance policy? We're talking about a player, almost always a running back, who has no standalone value because they are playing behind another player. However, the handcuff would give a fantasy manager clear value if the starter in front of them were to get hurt. So that means no Alexander Mattison or Jamaal Williams, who are now starting with Dalvin Cook and D'Andre Swift out. It also means no A.J. Dillon, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, Boston Scott, and Javonte Williams, who are all in timeshare situations already, so we can't really call them strict backups or handcuffs. If they're available in your league, which is unlikely, they should be added.
So what makes for a good handcuff? For starters, the player needs to be talented in their own right. We obviously want starting players on our team, but if that starting player isn't going to consistently gain yards, score touchdowns, or catch passes then they're not doing you much good. A good handcuff is also somebody who would find themselves in a strong team environment. For example, you won't find Carlos Hyde on this list because, while he would be the starting running back for the Jaguars if James Robinson went down, the offensive environment in Jacksonville is bad enough that I would rather have the ten players who made this list on my bench instead of Hyde. If Hyde were the starter, he remains just a FLEX option at best and I want more upside in my bench stashes.
Which leads us to the question: who should roster these handcuffs? The easy answer is: everyone. Obviously, if you have the starter playing ahead of one of these guys, you should have the handcuff. That would ensure that you retain the value of that position and offense if the starter were to go down. However, even fantasy managers without the starters should think about rostering handcuffs as we get into the playoffs.
By this point, you likely have your starting lineup set, so the guys on your bench will likely remain there. That means it's often more valuable for those players to be high-upside stashes who could help you win if they found their way into a starting role rather than guys like Rex Burkhead or Devin Singletary, who are currently getting work but don't really have the upside to be anything more than a FLEX-option you pray finds the endzone.
So who are my favorite insurance policies for the postseason? I'm glad you asked.
1. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Pollard being number one goes without saying, and I really could have had him listed with the players above as being already part of a timeshare. Pollard has 100 carries to Ezekiel Elliott's 160 so far this season, with Pollard rushing for 531 yards. He's also caught 29 passes for 256 yards. Corey Clement is the only other running back to have a carry for Dallas this year, and he has nine total rushes. If Zeke were to get injured or be rested for any period of time, Pollard would immediately become a top-5 running back option in fantasy football. The Cowboys average around 24 running back carries a game, which would probably mean about 18-20 carries for Pollard (who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry) and all of the red zone work, which now goes to Zeke. The Cowboys' offense is 10th in points per possession, 8th in rushing yards per attempt, and they love to run the ball when they're ahead.
UPSIDE: Pollard remains available in almost 40% of leagues and that should be fixed given that he'd be a league-winner if Zeke went down.
2. Ronald Jones Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here we are, talking about Ronald Jones again. Jones has been firmly positioned as the Bucs' backup running back all season, seeing about 18% of the running back snaps and getting about 25% of the team's carries each week as he's watched Leonard Fournette dominate. However, if Fournette were to go down, Jones would slide into the unquestioned top running back spot in Tampa with only Giovani Bernard there to compete with him. As we all know, Tampa is a great offense. They are best in the NFL in points per possession and, despite being a more pass-heavy team, are also 10th in the NFL in rushing TDs. So far this season, Leonard Fournette is 3rd in the NFL with 37 carries inside the 20-yard line. Now, if he were to be injured, the Bucs could choose to pass more in the red zone since Jones doesn't have Fournette's power, but that's still an inciting red zone role to walk into.
UPSIDE: Given the potential role and the overall dominance of this offense, Jones would be an RB2 if Fournette were to miss time, so he should be picked up as a bench stash in more leagues.
3. Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are not a particularly run-heavy team, ranking 24th in percentage of rushing plays and 24th in yards per carry. However, this is still a strong offense overall, ranking 5th in the NFL in points per possession, even with their struggles these last few weeks. You still want the starting running back on this offense, and Michel would clearly be that for the Rams if Darrell Henderson Jr. goes down with an injury. On the season, only two runningbacks besides Henderson and Michel have a carry, with Buddy Howell having five and Jake Funk having one. Neither one would take carries from Michel. Also, the Rams like to lean on one back. Henderson has had 75% of the running back snaps in six of his 10 games and hasn't had under 60% snaps in any game he's played. He's also had over 60% of runningback carries in four games and had 80% on Sunday against the Packers. The large workload has also led to Henderson being nicked up more than a few times this year, so Michel could be one of the best bench stashes for the playoffs.
UPSIDE: He'd be a mid-tier RB2 with high usage totals if Henderson were to go down.
4. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
We already saw what Stevenson can do if he's given the bulk of the rushing work. The Patriots are 7th in the NFL in total rushing attempts and 10th in percentage of rushing plays, so we know that this is a team that likes to run the football. They're also 7th in the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns, which means that they are giving their running backs a lot of high-value touches. Right now, that is benefiting Damien Harris, who is 5th in the NFL in red-zone rushes and has eight touchdowns to go along with 643 yards on 154 carries. Harris is currently playing about 40% of the team's snaps and seeing just under 50% of the team's rushes. Meanwhile, Stevenson isn't far behind at 33% of snaps and just under 40% of the rushes. If Damien Harris were to miss more time, Stevenson would jump up to about 60% of running back touches, with Brandon Bolden or J.J. Taylor working in as a back-up and seeing passing down work.
UPSIDE: However, Stevenson would be the main ball-carrier and see the vast majority of the high-value touches in the red zone, which would make him a mid-tier RB2 if Harris was out. He just slots in lower than Michel and Jones because I think he would lose a significant amount of passing-down work to the other backs and is not in as high-powered an offense.
5. D'Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns
Much like with Rhamondre Stevenson, we already saw what Johnson can do when he's given the lead-back role. In week 7 against a good Denver run defense, Johnson handled 22 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown and then he rushed for 99 yards on 19 carries against New England. He's also proven to be more skilled as a receiver than many expected catching seven passes for 58 yards in that New England game. If either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt were to miss a game, Johnson would find himself again in one of the best rushing environments in the league as Cleveland is 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts and 6th in percentage of rushes overall. They are also 3rd in the NFL in yards per rush and 2nd in rushing touchdowns. Chubb and Hunt have combined for 47 rushes inside the 20-yard-line, which would be good for 2nd-most in the NFL. If he's available on your waiver wire, he certainly still makes for a meaningful stash, even after being phased out of the rotation last week against Baltimore. Kareem Hunt's calf appeared to act up again at the end of the game, and calf injuries are notoriously problematic for running backs, so Hunt should be looked at as a risky option to finish the year at full strength.
UPSIDE: Given the fact that Johnson has two running backs in front of him and would likely be in a timeshare situation if re-emerged as fantasy-relevant, he falls a little bit lower on this list than his talent and production would seem to indicate. Still, if Hunt were to get hurt again, Johnson would be an RB3 with low-end RB2 upside in plus matchups.
6. Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers
This one is all about the opportunity. San Francisco is 9th in the NFL in rushing attempts, but 2nd in percentage of rushing plays, running the ball on 48.6% of their plays. That trails only Philadelphia, who runs the ball on 49.7% of their plays. They haven't been as successful this year, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, but they are also 6th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, which means a good amount of high-value opportunities. Since Week 7, Elijah Mitchell has assumed a stranglehold on the starting job, taking 70% of the running back snaps in every week except for Week 10 against the Rams where Mitchell got injured. In the Week 11 game against Jacksonville, Wilson got 58% of the running back snaps and handled 46% of the rushing attempts. While he wasn't overly effective, he did see almost all of the short-yardage work and got 100% of the carries inside the red zone, which would indicate that, even if he split snaps with Trey Sermon or JaMychal Hasty, he would still have the highest-value touches. Considering Wilson showed flashes of fantasy value in his spot starts in 2020, rushing for 183 yards against the Cardinals and scoring three total touchdowns in the last four weeks of the season, he's worth throwing on the end of your bench, especially with Elijah Mitchell having dealt with injuries multiple times this season.
UPSIDE: Much like with D'Ernest Johnson, Wilson would not be elevated into a full-time role if he was to become a starter. He would likely cede some carries to Sermon and Hasty would work in on passing downs. Still, he would earn all of the redzone and high-value touches, which would make him a low-end RB2 option if Mitchell were to miss time.
7. Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
This one is all about the team environment. We know that the Colts love to run the ball; however, they've been a more balanced team than many believe. They are 6th in the NFL in total rushes but 12th in percentage of rushing plays. Yet, the value in being the lead back here is how good this offensive line is. The Colts have run for a league-high 5.2 yards per carry, and while a lot of that is obviously the talent of Jonathan Taylor, we can't ignore the value of his run-blocking as well. The Colts are 4th in the NFL in points per possession, so this is an offense that can score with the best of them, and Taylor leads the NFL with 66 rushes inside the 20-yeard-line. Dalvin Cook is 2nd with 37. That's a 29 carry difference! Obviously, if Mack were to take over the starting role, the Colts wouldn't run as much in the red zone since Mack is nearly 20 pounds lighter than Taylor and doesn't run with his power. However, Mack would be the red zone running back over Nyheim Hines, but would mean a fair share of high-value touches. Remember that it wasn't too long ago that Mack was rushing for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games as the Colts starter in 2019. The year before he had 908 yards and nine touchdowns in only 12 games. At 25-years-old Mack still likely has some juice left in his legs; he just needs the opportunity.
UPSIDE: Considering Nyheim Hines already sees about 30% of the team's snaps with Jonathan Taylor healthy, we'd have to imagine that would climb closer to 50% if Marlon Mack was the starter. Still, Hines rarely sees more than 10% of the rushing attempts, so his role would still be mainly in the passing game, which would give Mack value as a low-end RB2 in games where the Colts figure to lead but a FLEX-option if they will likely be trailing and passing.
8. Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
Given Drake's past fantasy success, you might expect to see him higher up on this list, but the Raiders aren't as friendly an offense for running backs as some of the other spots we've discussed. They are currently 23rd in percentage of rushing plays and all but abandon the run when they are behind in games, which, frankly, seems to be often of late. However, they are 10th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, so they will run the ball in the red zone, but a lot of that has to do with having 220-pound Josh Jacobs as your lead back. Over the last few weeks, Jacobs has taken over the vast majority of the backfield work, taking 66% of the snaps the last two weeks and carrying the ball almost 60% of the time. Considering Drake is the only runningback getting any carries, if Jacobs were to miss time, Drake could see himself with a pretty large role in the offense. The only downside would be that Jalen Richard has re-emerged as a passing-down back for Las Vegas, which could cut into Drake's value if Las Vegas is behind and passing, as they often do.
UPSIDE: If Jacobs were to miss time, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Drake get 80% of the rushing attempts in Las Vegas. However, the running environment isn't as friendly as some of the teams listed above and Richard's presence will cut into the passing game usage. All of that would keep Drake as a risky RB2 option, but one that is worth a spot on the end of your bench as a stash.
9. Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals
We tend to think of the Bengals as being a pass-happy team given their trio of wide receivers, but they have been a more run-focused offense, especially over the last month of the season. On the year, the Bengals are 8th in percentage of rushing plays and actually run the 3rd-most in the NFL when they are trailing. They're also 9th in the NFL in points per possession and 8th in rushing touchdowns, so this is certainly a fantasy-friendly environment for a running back. Now, a lot of that has to do with Joe Mixon playing really good football this year, but we also saw Perine rush for 59 yards on 11 carries against Green Bay while Mixon was banged up. Perine is a big back at 240 pounds, so he doesn't have Mixon's elusiveness and really just gets what's blocked; however, he has the power to be effective in short-yardage and the red zone. Chris Evans is also seeing about 10-15% of the snaps each game, but he only has nine total rushing attempts on the season, so he would be limited to passing-down work if Mixon were to miss time. Even then, Perine would likely mix in since he already is in on 20-30% of routes each week as Mixon's back-up, so Cincinnati trusts him as a receiver. Given Mixon's injury history, Perine could be a strong end-of-bench stash for these final weeks.
UPSIDE: If Mixon were to miss time, Perine would likely handle around 70-80% of the rushing attempts and about 40% of the passing down work, which would make him a low-end RB2 since he, clearly, doesn't have the talent, and thus upside, of Mixon himself.
10. Jaret Patterson, Washington Football Team
Any time your starting running back is playing with a fractured shin, it's important to keep an eye on the back-up. Antonio Gibson does appear healthier after the bye week and has looked good the last two weeks, but we know the fracture isn't magically healed, so he does remain an injury risk. Washington is 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts and 9th in percentage of rushing plays, so it's a balanced attack that leans more towards the run. As it currently stands, Patterson has been seeing about 20% of the team's rushes as Gibson's back-up while playing around 20% of the total snaps. Gibson himself splits time with J.D. McKissic, with Gibson usually topping out around 65% of the team's snaps; however, he is the primary ballcarrier, handling about 60-70% of the team's rushes while McKissic has only topped 20% of the team's carries in two games this season. If Gibson were to miss time, Patterson would likely be looking at 60% of the team's rushes, with McKissic taking on the vast majority of the passing-down work. However, McKissic had to be carted off the field last week with a neck injury, and even though he has ruled himself to be "all good," neck injuries are obviously problematic and could leave him open to aggravation.
UPSIDE: Patterson was an incredibly talented running back at the University of Buffalo and proved to be adept in the receiving game as well, so if he were given a larger opportunity, he could emerge as a well-rounded starting option. However, he has the longest odds of anybody on this list.
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