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NFL running back Gus Edwards is a potential 2021 fantasy football sleeper and ADP draft value. Target him as an undervalued RB in fantasy football drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~50 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~89
ANALYSIS: Edwards enters his fourth season with a role that is both defined and secure. He has found a role operating as a key cog in a Baltimore offense that has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to the ground game. The Ravens paced the NFL in run play percentage for a second consecutive season during 2020 (55.9%) after finishing third in 2018. This has propelled Edwards to 700+ rushing yards in each of his three seasons while accumulating 414 attempts (9.6 per game), and 2,152 yards (45.2 per game) during that span.
He set career-highs in attempts (144/9 per game) and rushing yards (723/45.2 per game) last season. Edwards also averaged 9.6 attempts and 50.5 yards per game from Weeks 8-17, which coincided with the evisceration of Mark Ingram’s workload in the rushing attack. Edwards and Dobbins combined for 205 attempts, 1,156 yards, and 12 rushing touchdowns during that sequence, while Ingram averaged a minuscule 5.5 carries and 18.5 yards per game (Ingram is also now in Houston). Edwards punched in a career-best six touchdowns during 2020 after being entrusted with 25 carries inside the red zone and a team-high nine carries inside the 5.
Edwards' 22 career targets underscore his lack of involvement as a pass-catcher. However, he finished seventh among all backs in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and will retain consistent usage in Baltimore’s run-heavy approach. Any increased deployment of the Ravens’ passing attack will not alter the ground-oriented strategy that is the foundation of their offense. Edwards' workload and value would also rise substantially if Dobbins were to experience an extended absence during the season.
UPDATE: All aboard the Gus Bus. Lead back J.K. Dobbins suffered a torn ACL in the final game of the preseason, leaving Edwards as the lead running back in what figures to be a committee that includes Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, and rookie Ty'Son Williams. The Ravens notoriously run the stuffing out the ball and Edwards' fantasy value skyrockets with this news.
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