Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Sweet Spot Analysis for Week 9

May 25, 2021

Statcast batter risers and fallers in Week 9 of the 2021 MLB season according to sweet spot rate (SwSp%). Pierre Camus evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Barrel rate is one of the best measures of a hitter's power. In order to earn a barrel, a player needs to have enough exit velocity, which we measured last week, and the proper launch angle. Specifically, a ball can travel anywhere between 8-50 degrees depending on how high an exit velocity was produced. Although barreled balls come in all different shapes and sizes, or angles and speeds, it needs the proper launch angle.

Sweet spot percentage (SwSp%) is one such factor, although it isn't strictly correlated with barrels. Anything hit that travels at a launch angle between 8-32 degrees has hit the sweet spot. A batted ball can be hit in the sweet spot but not become a barrel if the exit velocity is too low. Still, it's a good starting point to look for power production because players who tend to get the ideal launch angle repeatedly have a better chance of earning a barrel, which means a better chance of an extra-base hit.

All Statcast metrics are current as of May 24, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.

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Sweet Spot Studs

Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers

49.6% SwSp% - 121 BBE

What the what?? Grossman is leading the majors in sweet spot rate, hitting it where it counts half the time. He should be barreling the heck out of it too then! But his 5.6% Barrels/PA is very mediocre and, in fact, below the median. Grossman reached a career-high mark in slugging with a .482 SLG last year although his .397 xSLG was way lower. This year, the tables are turned. His .453 xSLG is excellent but his actual slugging percentage is .432.

His exit velocity has gone up a couple ticks since last year as well, holding steady at 89 MPH. Combined with a huge increase in Sweet Spot rate, you'd expect more barrels. Alas, none are forthcoming. Grossman is not a slugger, having reached double-digit homers in a season once (11 in 2016). Enjoy the steals and modest counting stats but don't read too much into launch angle here. He's elevating the ball more, but they aren't necessarily falling in or leaving the yard at a higher clip.

Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox

46.5% SwSp% - 101 BBE

We expect power from Moncada... just kidding, we have no idea what to expect anymore. Moncada was tremendous in 2019, hitting .315 with 29 homers and then fell to .225 with six homers in 52 games. His average has settled in between those two points at a solid .287 but he's got all of three HR in his first 42 games. His hard-hit rate and xSLG are closer to '19 levels than '20 and now we see his Sweet Spot rate is among the best in baseball, so what gives?

Moncada is posting a very high 39.6% line drive rate and is also walking more while striking out a bit less. Line drives are great but they don't equal home runs most of the time. Moncada is earning a lot of hard singles along with 10 doubles.

In all, he's become a far better real-life player by improving on last year's struggles but the fantasy gold isn't quite there. It's encouraging that he's seeing the ball well and making quality contact, however, so remain patient.

Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks

44.3% SwSp% - 97 BBE

A post-hype midseason sleeper, Rojas is back on the radar after a miserable start to 2021. It wasn't until the last day of April that he brought his average up to .200 and now it's all the way to .289. Since May began, he's hitting .360 with a 49.1% Hard%. Of his 27 hits in the past 20 games, 16 have been singles, eight doubles, one triple, and two were home runs. One thing we're learning is that hitting the sweet spot is great for BABIP but doesn't always translate to big flies.

Rojas isn't a big power bat to begin with, so we can only be happy with the power numbers so far as long as his average keeps climbing. The allure here is the most underappreciated roto category - runs scored. Rojas has crossed the plate 24 times, 15 of which have come in the past three weeks.

Sweet Spot Duds

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

25.2% SwSp% - 119 BBE

We knew the insane homer barrage wouldn't carry over from last postseason. If anything, speed is Arozarena's best tool, power being next. While he has gone deep seven times, his barrel rate is in the 34th percentile and xSLG is 15th percentile. Most disappointing is his ground ball rate which is at 52.9%. Hitting the ball hard is less effective when it's on the ground, even with elite speed.

If you drafted Arozarena expecting 35-40 HR, you were always going to be disappointed. Given the fact he's top-20 in runs and top-25 in steals, he doesn't need to be an elite power bat to be worthy of his draft capital, though. He is clearly capable of going on a power binge, so a launch angle adjustment could be all that he needs to be that breakout players many hoped for.

David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks

27.0% SwSp% - 141 BBE

At age 33, we might expect Peralta to dip in exit velocity or hard-hit rate but he hasn't. For the seventh year in a row, every year in the Statcast era, he ranks among the leaders in maximum exit velocity. The only thing that has dropped in 2021 is launch angle, which at 3.2° is half of last year's average. Looking at the pitch breakdown by launch angle, there are a couple of huge differences early this season. He is getting much more lift on split-finger pitches (34° launch angle) and a -15° angle on cutters.

The splitter accounts for just six pitches total so we can throw that data out. The cutter has a 52-pitch sample in which he's batting .286 with a single and a homer so the depressed LA hasn't mattered. His curveball data shows an increased launch angle but he's hitting just .100 against that pitch, also with one home run and a single over 74 pitches.

While Peralta is grounding out a little more often, his metrics don't show a great deal of change otherwise. The truth of the matter is that his 30-homer season in 2018 was an outlier in a solid but unspectacular fantasy profile.

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

27.4% SwSp% - 104 BBE

The shock of seeing Lindor at the bottom of statistical leaderboards this season should have worn off by now. His 3.5% barrel rate, .229 xBA, .353 xSLG, and .305 xwoBACON are all in the lowest quartile of the league ranks. His 10.5° launch angle is the lowest since 2016, which is also the last time he wasn't among the league leaders in doubles and homers. Ironically, his 43.5% hard-hit rate is the highest of his career thus far.

On paper, his problems are easy to identify. He's hitting the ball on the ground half the time and he's not catching up to the fastball like he used to. Citi Field doesn't do any favors - it currently has the lowest HR Park Factor and has historically suppressed power. The reality is that adjusting to a new league, park, and pressures of being in New York may be harder to fix. We could well see a second-half surge but don't run out to buy low just yet.

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